ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Hurricane Andrew]

A landfall on E LI would be much preferable for NYC proper than the Sandy doomsday scenario. Not that the tri-state area wants either.

The difference is that Sandy Category 1. GFS is showing a major (3/4) just offshore. The Northeast has only once ever seen that kind of storm, and it was 80 years ago.

Technically, Sandy was post-tropical and had merged with a front. But the angle of approach to the coast spelled disaster for NY Harbor and the NJ Shore.

Sandy happened way before I got into first response (2012, 2015), but I can only imagine trying to do our thing in those conditions. Yes.

[chris_fit]

Flo is coming back from round 2....

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/CycloneTracker/status/1037747116062515200

[SFLcane]

You gotta be kidding me lol here comes Florence back down heading wsw

[tolakram]

I can't find a single hurricane that was near Florence's current position that did not head out to sea...

Plenty of things have never happened until they do.

Maybe. We will see. The power of climatology is strong.

Florence can easily move into an area where one can find 3 or 4 storms that hit the US. This storm (unnamed 1933 IIRC, crosses Florence's current forecast path. I do agree it's very very rare. I think the odd situation here is the forecast westward path, due to weakening, that puts Florence in an area more likely to hit the US. More being a relative term.

[canes92]

Florida does not need another major hurricane.

[ava_ati]

Look who decided to finally move N?

UKMET into SC/NC

[chris_fit]

Epic run so far.....

[SFLcane]

Ok 12z UKMET shifts north in line with rest of the models.

[cjrciadt]

Flo is coming back from round 2....

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lhckuhUxcgA

[Bocadude85]

Florida does not need another major hurricane.

I do not think the chances are very high of Florence having a encounter with Florida, the ridge would need to be stronger then modeled and farther southwest then what the models are currently forecasting.

[tolakram]

GFS is having one of those runs.

For entertainment only IMO.

[ronjon]

Well if today's 12z Euro is into NC then we'd be getting increasing model consensus from the Canadian, ECM, and UKMET.

[Ken711]

The difference is that Sandy Category 1. GFS is showing a major (3/4) just offshore. The Northeast has only once ever seen that kind of storm, and it was 80 years ago.

Technically, Sandy was post-tropical and had merged with a front. But the angle of approach to the coast spelled disaster for NY Harbor and the NJ Shore.

Sandy happened way before I got into first response (2012, 2015), but I can only imagine trying to do our thing in those conditions. Yes.

I'm thinking if it landfalls it will be more in the NC/VA area than further North. I believe the Euro will trend west with the 12z run.

[ronjon]

12z ICON into NC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2018090612&fh=60

[pgoss11]

Can someone post the Ukmet run please?

[pgoss11]

Epic run so far.....

Wow! That was entertaining. Dangerous scenario for the NE if it verifies.

[somniture]

I will just point out that last year the GFS showed a NY landfall for Irma at a similar lead time.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I will just point out that last year the GFS showed a NY landfall for Irma at a similar lead time.

Yep. The Carolinas are not out of the woods on this one.

[MGC]

When it the Gulfstream going to fly and sample the ridge out over the Atlantic. Would have a much higher degree of confidence in the models when that happens. Yeah, that GFS run today is crazy. Euro is concerning. Two of my kids live in the Tidewater Va region....MGC