ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

I think this has been asked before but why does the NHC weaken Florence before making landfall? Eyewall replacement cycle?

IMHO, interaction with land.
At this point, forecast to hit in the morning.
Overnight, temperature inversions set up due to cooling of the land which inhibits convection.
Timing is going to mean a lot.
If it comes in later in the day and skies are clear over NC, SC, VA, the inversion with break allowing convection to fire much stronger due to the high lapse rate then.

[GCANE]

[bob rulz]

It certainly looks like it's on the verge of being a hurricane if it isn't already.

[Ivanhater]

This could be a real disaster..What is another huge concern is the stalling inland...Mass flooding

[GCANE]

Maybe a relatively small eyewall

[GCANE]

Good stack and consolidation on the vorts, surface to 500mb

[emeraldislenc]

This could really be a diseaster for our area and community. We are closely following the storm. We are an island beach town in North Carolina and could have a profound impact on our community. The next few days will tel us a lot.

[Buck]

Not to make light of the impending forecast, but by the time this starts strengthening today and tomorrow (potentially RI), Florence will be a strikingly beautiful storm. Very symmetrical shape, healthy outflow already.

I suspect we will have at least two hurricanes at 11 AM.

[supercane4867]

Not impressive on visible imagery yet but microwave from hours ago shows it's trying to organize

[hurricaneCW]

Classic looking developing system right now with an impressive outflow usually seen prior to the biggest and baddest major hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 65 kts.Hurricane again.

AL, 06, 2018090912, , BEST, 0, 244N, 561W, 65, 987, HU

[HurricaneIrma]

Not impressive on visible imagery yet but microwave from hours ago shows it's trying to organize

Is the center South of the 24 line?

[Highteeld]

Best track at 12z took florence to a category 1 hurricane with 65 kt winds and 987 mb.

[bg1]

12z Best Track up to 65 kts.Hurricane again.

AL, 06, 2018090912, , BEST, 0, 244N, 561W, 65, 987, HU

Still heading S of W... lost 0.1 of latitude.

[hurricaneCW]

There's an eye showing up on visible, Flo is likely rapidly intensifying right now.

[Highteeld]

There's an eye showing up on visible, Flo is likely rapidly intensifying right now.

Looks like there is recon, anyone know if it is upper level or low level?

[Hurricane Andrew]

There's an eye showing up on visible, Flo is likely rapidly intensifying right now.

Kermit is en route, we'll know soon enough.

[KWT]

12z Best Track up to 65 kts.Hurricane again.

AL, 06, 2018090912, , BEST, 0, 244N, 561W, 65, 987, HU

Still dropping latitude from the looks of things, microwave suggests even that is s touch far north.

Also, 65kts again as you say so it is strenthening. Be interesting to see what it does this afternoon and whether the inner core does tighten up and strengthen as predicted.

[KWT]

There's an eye showing up on visible, Flo is likely rapidly intensifying right now.

The eyewall just burst into life in the last hour or so, very impressive. Also you can see where the eye is going to form. I think you maybe right with the RI.

[seahawkjd]

Storms are starting to wrap nicely around the center.