ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

It looks like the nnw movement might be trying to occur.

sure hints of the NNW motion on the IR loops, also should be soon when the eye is completely wrapped with dense convection

[supercane4867]

Western eyewall still needs improvement. Wind profile from recon is also very lopsided at the moment.

[NDG]

Let me repeat this again, 102 knot flight level winds found by recon on the NE eyewall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Flight level winds alone may support 100mph at 11, JMO.

[pcolaman]

It looks like the nnw movement might be trying to occur.

sure hints of the NNW motion on the IR loops, also should be soon when the eye is completely wrapped with dense convection

Looks to be 2 degrees or clicks to the left of 85

[CrazyC83]

Based on the SFMR and other data, 80 kt looks to be the current intensity.

[Craters]

There is a very warm gom ahead with minimal shear..good luck to whoever is inside if 40 miles from landfall...good roof straps and all windows covered are in order

Oceanic Heat Content shows that while there is a loop eddy ahead of Michael there are (relatively) colder waters past that.

https://imgur.com/lyrbUsK

Cooler, yes, but not anywhere close to "cool". Definitely enough to sustain a major hurricane.

Yep.

[Abdullah]

102 knot flight level winds!!!!!!!!

01:20:00Z 23.117N 84.983W 733.0 mb
(~ 21.65 inHg) 2,544 meters
(~ 8,346 feet) 983.1 mb
(~ 29.03 inHg) - From 148° at 100 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 115.1 mph) 12.3°C*
(~ 54.1°F*) -* 102 knots
(~ 117.4 mph)

Really pushing the limit right there.

We thought Florence would be the worst one of the season. I think this could surpass Florence in intensity.

[NDG]

It looks like the nnw movement might be trying to occur.

sure hints of the NNW motion on the IR loops, also should be soon when the eye is completely wrapped with dense convection

Looks to be 2 degrees or clicks to the left of 85

Based on the recon's fix, it is still moving almost due north. It only moved .07 degrees to the west from the last fix.

22.950N 85.250W

[jlauderdal]

Let me repeat this again, 102 knot flight level winds found by recon on the NE eyewall.

Can you go for the trifecta
..

[MississippiWx]

Looks like Mike is going to put on a show tonight.

[pcolaman]

sure hints of the NNW motion on the IR loops, also should be soon when the eye is completely wrapped with dense convection

Looks to be 2 degrees or clicks to the left of 85

Based on the recon's fix, it is still moving almost due north. It only moved .07 degrees to the west from the last fix.

22.950N 85.250W

Like i said , 2 clicks to the west of 85 so not a true north heading. if true would be 85 still...

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks to be 2 degrees or clicks to the left of 85

Based on the recon's fix, it is still moving almost due north. It only moved .07 degrees to the west from the last fix.

22.950N 85.250W

Like i said , 2 clicks to the west of 85 so not a true north heading. if true would be 85 still...

It's been straddling exactly 85.2 for most of the afternoon.

[Frank P]

Looks to be 2 degrees or clicks to the left of 85

Based on the recon's fix, it is still moving almost due north. It only moved .07 degrees to the west from the last fix.

22.950N 85.250W

Latest IR loop sure looks like at least a wobble to the NNW

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm not all that surprised. With a pressure of 970mb, a jump in the winds was inevitable once deep convection started firing again in the NE quad. Michael is obviously still exhibiting a bursting CDO pattern, but the towers are more numerous and persistent than they were 12 hours ago. Additionally, its outer bands appear to be shrinking slightly, which may allow for banding to further consolidate in the core and the pressure gradient to tighten.

[Kazmit]

102 knot flight level winds!!!!!!!!

01:20:00Z 23.117N 84.983W 733.0 mb
(~ 21.65 inHg) 2,544 meters
(~ 8,346 feet) 983.1 mb
(~ 29.03 inHg) - From 148° at 100 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 115.1 mph) 12.3°C*
(~ 54.1°F*) -* 102 knots
(~ 117.4 mph)

That translates to around 90kts surface level right?

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1049468271299371009

[Stormcenter]

Looks NNW for sure. IMO

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/FLSERT/status/1049466995270447106

[NDG]

Never mind, it looks like they are not going with the 102 knot flight level winds recorded, I guess it was suspicious.

000
URNT12 KNHC 090152
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/00:53:50Z
B. 22.87 deg N 085.25 deg W
C. 700 mb 2867 m
D. 974 mb
E. NA
F. OPEN W
G. E36/40/30
H. 69 kt
I. 313 deg 10 nm 00:51:00Z
J. 062 deg 74 kt
K. 321 deg 19 nm 00:48:30Z
L. 72 kt
M. 133 deg 18 nm 00:59:30Z
N. 218 deg 85 kt
O. 133 deg 23 nm 01:01:00Z
P. 9 C / 3047 m
Q. 17 C / 3044 m
R. NA / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF300 0714A MICHAEL OB 03
MAX FL WIND 85 KT 133 / 23 NM 01:01:00Z