WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Would Hilda or Ignacio '15 be a good comparison? If so I don't see why this won't become the next major

I’m kind of thinking Lester 16 is a good comparison but this is further south. Ignacio and Hilda weren’t powerful for as long as I think this one could be.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
I'd bet on a strong Category 4 Hector at least by Sunday.

HWRF model (06z) steadily intensifies the storm heading west over warm waters.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1024676815326064645

[Kazmit]

Interesting... if it goes too far north, water temps will drop off and it may not get as strong, but if it goes further south it will be stronger, but miss Hawaii.

[storminabox]

Interesting... if it goes too far north, water temps will drop off and it may not get as strong, but if it goes further south it will be stronger, but miss Hawaii.

I’m all for the south option

[Kazmit]

Interesting... if it goes too far north, water temps will drop off and it may not get as strong, but if it goes further south it will be stronger, but miss Hawaii.

I’m all for the south option

Me too. I hope the south trend continues. Anything but the recent GFS run.

[cycloneye]

If it takes the southern track,it may do the crossover to the Western Pacific or conditions will not allow that to happen?

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a very close call as a cat 4.

[Yellow Evan]

If it takes the southern track,it may do the crossover to the Western Pacific or conditions will not allow that to happen?

Most likely it recurves before making it to 180W.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS has a very close call as a cat 4.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/CRDIUfQ.png[/ig]

And an even closer call with Kauai.

We're going to have to wait until a G-IV planes samples the environment, but it's good to see that models are converging south of the islands.

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET barely develops this. But it's likely not handling Hector well since Hector is already stronger than what it shows.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A hurricane/typhoon John repeat would be interesting

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS has a very close call as a cat 4.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/CRDIUfQ.png[/ig]

And an even closer call with Kauai.

We're going to have to wait until a G-IV planes samples the environment, but it's good to see that models are converging south of the islands.

If models trend northward that'd suggest some windshield whippering and I'd expect this to pass just south of Hawaii due to overall north bias shown by the models. If this continues to trend south this is a threat to Johnston Atoll but no threat to Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

6z FV3 similar to old GFS at 12z.

[Yellow Evan]

ICON has another system to the left which could throw a wrench into this.

[Kingarabian]

Well established southerly outflow channel compared to yesterday. Which would be a precursor of a developing system later becoming a strong hurricane. Still dealing with dry air:

[Kingarabian]

Hard for me to believe the models in their medium to long range forecasting the windshear to vanish over the Hawaiian Islands, which has been permanent over this area so far. I believe it when I see it. IMO.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/IfWEENA.gif[img]

Certainly agree. The shear was there in 2014 and 2015 as well. It's been there ever since I joined this forum and began understanding how TC formation works.

200mb wind on the GFS and the past couple of Euro runs show this feature (TUTT??) moving well north of Hawaii by hour 144:

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro more north than the past 2 runs but a bit weaker, keeping Hector a strong TS vs a minimal hurricane entering the CPAC.

[Alyono]

ICON has another system to the left which could throw a wrench into this.

Hector is the one south of Hawaii. The thing to the east is another system

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a bit more shear over Hector on this 12z run, keeping it weaker. But the overall upper level environment continues to look really favorable.

[Kingarabian]

Slowing down @ hour 168 on the 12z Euro and begins to take a more WNW turn. Damn, it looks like it may either hit the big island or recurve east.



Edit: Looks like the ridge holds firm, and keeps it west: