ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
12z GFS continues to have a horrible handle on the future intensity of Florence, as it now shows the system reaching hurricane status in 30 hours over 26C SSTs and 0 TCHP. Not going to happen; it'll probably stay even around 45-60mph throughout the next five days, as per the NHC forecast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
tpinnola wrote:00z Euro run has a weak storm missing the Bermuda ridge and making a bee-line for the Carolinas. Maybe the ridge forming across the CON US will make it there in time to save the day?
I think you mean trough
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
12z GFS now with a stronger ridge, pushing Florence further south and west. TAU 138, ridge is building
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
The latest 12z UKMET hot off the press is making things a bit interesting...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
The 12z Canadian had a massive West shift and wnds up dangerously close the the NC coast
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
12z GFS has a cat 4 over my house.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Although it's highly unlikely that this storm will reach the US, it's clearly going to get a lot further west than initially forecast.
I could see her getting to Bermuda or maybe pull a Bill. I'm excited because we should finally get some great swells out of this on the east coast.
I could see her getting to Bermuda or maybe pull a Bill. I'm excited because we should finally get some great swells out of this on the east coast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Kazmit wrote:12z GFS has a cat 4 over my house.
The inner core passes just to the east of Bermuda on this run.
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
hurricaneCW wrote:Although it's highly unlikely that this storm will reach the US, it's clearly going to get a lot further west than initially forecast.
I could see her getting to Bermuda or maybe pull a Bill. I'm excited because we should finally get some great swells out of this on the east coast.
I am also very excited for the swells- I've been waiting all summer for something. Let's just hope that's the only impact Florence has.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
The ECMWF is well south of the GFS with a shallower cyclone out through 72 hours so far.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
96 hours barely has a TC
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:96 hours barely has a TC
Yep shallower which may mean even more west. Ridge is building over the East coast of the US and Western Atlantic:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
gatorcane wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:96 hours barely has a TC
Yep shallower which may mean even more west. Ridge is building over the East coast of the US and Western Atlantic:
Thats a CONUS strike for sure. And a pattern that could drive the next few waves into the continent too. This setup was an outlier 3-4 days ago but more and more models are showing it. Will be interesting to see if it verifies.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
gatorcane wrote:Euro turning this west at 192 hours:
Looks like a Georgia/Carolinas hit right there.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
12Z Euro is much more west this run. Dangerously close to US east coast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Euro looks really close to the Canadian position at hr 216
edit and 240 both near Outer Banks
edit and 240 both near Outer Banks
Last edited by bamajammer4eva on Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- galaxy401
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Yeesh that is way too close for comfort. Canadian hit potienitally?
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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