ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[jlauderdal]

That seems very reasonable, really need some some mid and low level obs..as you know, we have seen very impressive sat presentations and nada at the surface

From the current level of organization .. I would wager on this becoming a TC sooner rather than later.

The shear has dropped to well within a developmental standpoint. not to stop it from now till the gulf..

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Gotta get that generator going buddy!

it ran well for 36 hours after irma, tested it out in june too...its ready

[cycloneye]

I go with 90%/90% at 2 PM TWO.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

:uarrow: Aric, you can see the low level clouds in that part of Cuba starting to get sucked to the east on the close-up.

Maybe I'm going blind but I can't see it.

You can't see it on the gif Aric just posted? If not, maybe you are going blind. Lol.

It was posted right as I was posting, lol. Forum's going fast today.

I see what you're talking about, but if it was a sign of low-level turning, wouldn't the cumulus clouds be vectoring from the NW-SE if the surface low were to be in the convection? Looks to me more like a seabreeze from the other coast.

[Dean4Storms]

This isn’t far from developing a surface reflection if not there already. I see no storm outflows to the west or south of this now so at least 3k ft or more above the surface we have a circulation in my opinion. If the current trend holds the rest of today this could become TD7 sometime tonight.

[HurricaneBrain]

I say 70%/90%

I go with 90%/90% at 2 PM TWO.

[Dean4Storms]

ASCAT scan shows a weak circulation on the south west edge.

Also note the elongation from WNW to ESE.....can easily see that on hi res visible. The MLC is displaced a good bit east of this elongated circulation. Very disorganized currently.

[CyclonicFury]

I say 70%/90%

I go with 90%/90% at 2 PM TWO.

I say 60%/80%.

[MississippiWx]

Maybe I'm going blind but I can't see it.

You can't see it on the gif Aric just posted? If not, maybe you are going blind. Lol.

It was posted right as I was posting, lol. Forum's going fast today.

I see what you're talking about, but if it was a sign of low-level turning, wouldn't the cumulus clouds be vectoring from the NW-SE if the surface low were to be in the convection? Looks to me more like a seabreeze from the other coast.

That's a good point. However, seabreeze doesn't move west to east like these clouds are doing. I'm not quite sure if these clouds are completely at the boundary layer yet, but they are close. I think this system is working its way from the top down to the surface through persistent convection.

[WAcyclone]

Link to the maximum-resolution one minute Mesoscale 2 floater of 91L:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=70

[Aric Dunn]

ASCAT scan shows a weak circulation on the south west edge.

Also note the elongation from WNW to ESE.....can easily see that on hi res visible.

yeah that is fairly typical. it will likely migrate back up into the convection over time. it is well on its way.

[Evil Jeremy]

I would go with 70%/90%, and it's time to expand the GTWO bubble to include SFL.

[galaxy401]

As a couple others are saying, I also think 70/90% in the next outlook.

[Dean4Storms]

ASCAT scan shows a weak circulation on the south west edge.

Also note the elongation from WNW to ESE.....can easily see that on hi res visible.

yeah that is fairly typical. it will likely migrate back up into the convection over time. it is well on its way.

The MLC is well east of that elongated circulation.

[gatorcane]

Shear dropping quickly. The GFS runs from last week thought there would be a swath of high shear over Southern Florida and the Bahamas but that didn’t pan out:

[Haris]

I say 70/90

[tarheelprogrammer]

I go with this is already a TD like I said earlier. I stick with it

[gatorcane]

No doubt it is organizing. Take a look:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[Evil Jeremy]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located
between north-central Cuba and the central Bahamas is gradually
becoming better organized, and upper-level winds are also becoming
more favorable. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward across the
northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys. The
system is forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early Tuesday and move toward the north-central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This system will produce locally heavy rains
and gusty winds across the central and northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or two. A
tropical storm watch could be issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. For more information, see products from
your local weather forecast office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[HurricaneBrain]

Up to 70/90

[jlauderdal]

I would go with 70%/90%, and it's time to expand the GTWO bubble to include SFL.

my peeps in sofla on this board are gunning hard for that red circle to be overhead