ATL: ISAAC - Models

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS Ensembles

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro Ensembles - Easy to see here that if it gets strong, it goes north. If it stays weaker, goes west.

[SoupBone]

12Z Euro Ensembles - Easy to see here that if it gets strong, it goes north. If it stays weaker, goes west.

And isn't it expected to get stronger, sooner rather than later? Man, I hope for the islanders sake it does and goes 'Fishin with Florence'.

[Ivanhater]

Not necessarily...if it stays weaker in the short term it will track further west. However, when it gets too far west, it will get trapped by the ridge and cruise through the Caribbean, even at as a strengthening storm.

[jlauderdal]

12Z Euro Ensembles - Easy to see here that if it gets strong, it goes north. If it stays weaker, goes west.

And isn't it expected to get stronger, sooner rather than later? Man, I hope for the islanders sake it does and goes 'Fishin with Florence'.

Florence isn't looking like its fishing..the pattern is setting up to be very complex for at least the next 10 days especially with a possible florence stall...this will affect helene

[wxmann_91]

12Z Euro Ensembles - Easy to see here that if it gets strong, it goes north. If it stays weaker, goes west.

Some of those stronger north tracks look like they're from the system behind (future "Isaac") instead of this one (future "Helene").

[Cpv17]

There’s usually a sweet spot where systems like to take off over the western Caribbean and the Bahamas. I suppose this year isn’t any different depending on shear, of course. So let’s hope it doesn’t make it into those areas.

[abajan]

12Z Euro Ensembles - Easy to see here that if it gets strong, it goes north. If it stays weaker, goes west.

https://i.imgur.com/LWf5YjC.png

Some of those stronger north tracks look like they're from the system behind (future "Isaac") instead of this one (future "Helene").

But for all we know, 92L may actually turn out to be future Isaac, and the wave east of it may develop first and become Helene!

[wxmann_91]

12Z Euro Ensembles - Easy to see here that if it gets strong, it goes north. If it stays weaker, goes west.

https://i.imgur.com/LWf5YjC.png

Some of those stronger north tracks look like they're from the system behind (future "Isaac") instead of this one (future "Helene").

But for all we know, 92L may actually turn out to be future Isaac, and the wave east of it may develop first and become Helene!

Yeah, that may certainly happen lol. We have a certain curse with "I" storms so the one behind that is pretty much guaranteed fish may not be the "I" one.

[abajan]

Some of those stronger north tracks look like they're from the system behind (future "Isaac") instead of this one (future "Helene").

But for all we know, 92L may actually turn out to be future Isaac, and the wave east of it may develop first and become Helene!

Yeah, that may certainly happen lol. We have a certain curse with "I" storms so the one behind that is pretty much guaranteed fish may not be the "I" one.

FWIW the TW east is apparently now 93L, according to the S2K header image. But that's for another thread. lol

[toad strangler]

18z GFS is slowly killing off 92L in the Central Caribbean and burying it to the South

[toad strangler]

92L managed to make the entire trek through the Caribbean after threatening to keel over. It crosses the S Yucatan Peninsula as a weak wave or depression.

[supercane4867]

HWRF is doing the HWRF thing but it indicates the conditions are at least somewhat favorable ahead of 92L.

[BobHarlem]

18Z GFS with 92 & 93L looks like tropical bocce ball.

[NDG]

If 92L was at least a TD this is what the NHC's track would approximately look like, but if they were to do it through day 7.

[SoupBone]

If 92L was at least a TD this is what the NHC's track would approximately look like, but if they were to do it through day 7.

Crazy. What's the chance this thing buries itself in SA? One model showed it heading across the Yucatan and burying itself in Mexico.

[NDG]

If 92L was at least a TD this is what the NHC's track would approximately look like, but if they were to do it through day 7.

https://i.imgur.com/xlyJSVa.gif

Crazy. What's the chance this thing buries itself in SA? One model showed it heading across the Yucatan and burying itself in Mexico.

Hard to really know for sure, at this point past 5 days anything is possible.

[jlauderdal]

If 92L was at least a TD this is what the NHC's track would approximately look like, but if they were to do it through day 7.

https://i.imgur.com/xlyJSVa.gif

Crazy. What's the chance this thing buries itself in SA? One model showed it heading across the Yucatan and burying itself in Mexico.

Hard to really know for sure, at this point past 5 days anything is possible.

west west and more west...we have seen this for years now with modeling having trouble with the strength of the ridges..euro gets it close to the shredder but that is a real nasty track for the united states..enough ridging in place in the wake of florence to bring this right at the SE USA

gfs much more robust ridge but runners are rare, we will

[wxGuy]

This could just be the modiki el nino. Last time that happened, Katrina hit LA then shortly afterwards Rita hit Texas. Gordon just hit gulf shores, who's next?
Texas pay attention. The gulf is still hot and that ridge is stout my friends. Weather likes to repeat

[NotSparta]

This could just be the modiki el nino. Last time that happened, Katrina hit LA then shortly afterwards Rita hit Texas. Gordon just hit gulf shores, who's next?
Texas pay attention. The gulf is still hot and that ridge is stout my friends. Weather likes to repeat

2004 was the Modoki Niño, not 2005. 2005 had cool neutral ENSO in place during most of the season.

Most of the reason 2004 was so active was the extremely favorable base state, too.