WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Not only is wind shear decreasing over Mangkhut, it is decreasing all the way to the Marianas. This will not be an issue.

[mrbagyo]

Rapidscan

[1900hurricane]

It's amazing how much presentation has improved due to the convection firing over the center. It'll be interesting to see if it can be sustained.

[mrbagyo]

Only 35 knots on recent OSCAT but that maybe attributed to it's low resolution.

40 knots looks ok but I think Mangkhut is about to enter RI phase.

[mrbagyo]

BT now up to 45 knots

26W MANGKHUT 180908 1200 14.7N 159.2E WPAC 45 989

[Highteeld]

Mangkhut is looking pretty juicy

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TS 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 8 September 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 8 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°30' (14.5°)
E159°10' (159.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 9 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°55' (14.9°)
E155°30' (155.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 9 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°50' (14.8°)
E151°55' (151.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E145°20' (145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E140°35' (140.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1038127747246288897

[Highteeld]

[euro6208]

We are now placed on Condition of Readiness 3. This means damaging winds of 39-57 mph are expected within 48 hours

[Highteeld]

Theoretical limit, or nah?

[euro6208]

UKMET passes this in the Rota Channel.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.09.2018



TROPICAL STORM MANGKHUT ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 162.4E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 08.09.2018 13.1N 162.4E MODERATE

12UTC 08.09.2018 13.8N 159.2E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2018 14.3N 155.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2018 14.4N 151.9E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2018 14.0N 148.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.09.2018 13.7N 145.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.09.2018 13.7N 143.0E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.09.2018 14.0N 140.6E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.09.2018 14.4N 138.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.09.2018 14.8N 136.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.09.2018 15.7N 133.9E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 13.09.2018 16.7N 131.5E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 14.09.2018 18.0N 129.0E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Highteeld]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 SEP 2018 Time : 125000 UTC
Lat : 14:37:35 N Lon : 158:58:40 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1002.5mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.2 3.8

Center Temp : -81.3C Cloud Region Temp : -82.0C

[Highteeld]

[michelinj]

Hi I’ve only just registered despite lurking the site for a while now. I thought I’d make my first post on here because of the potential this storm holds. It’s rare for models to predict a storm at cat4/5 when the system is still only a TD/TS as they did here. Just glad I can enjoy the beauty of storms from the safe place of London!

[mrbagyo]

Hi I’ve only just registered despite lurking the site for a while now. I thought I’d make my first post on here because of the potential this storm holds. It’s rare for models to predict a storm at cat4/5 when the system is still only a TD/TS as they did here. Just glad I can enjoy the beauty of storms from the safe place of London!

Welcome to the S2k community!!!

[euro6208]

Now the only question is how strong will this come in?

[NotoSans]

JMA forecast a 940-mb typhoon for the CNMI. Very rare to see such aggressive forecast from them.

[euro6208]

JMA forecast a 940-mb typhoon for the CNMI. Very rare to see such aggressive forecast from them.

Has it passing between Rota and Guam. More to Guam side damn.

[michelinj]

From what I can tell this storm has literally perfect conditions:

Size ✅
Structure✅
Convection✅
Warm SSTs ✅
Low Shear ✅
No land interaction(for now) ✅

Most importantly... Time ✅

I’m sure there are many more factors that I don’t fully understand but those main factors seem to be well in Mangkhut’s favour.