ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[Condor]

[edu2703]

5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 22
Location: 8.6°N 24.8°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph



INIT 22/2100Z 8.6N 24.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 9.1N 27.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 9.5N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 9.7N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 9.8N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 11.5N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 13.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

[Condor]

[chaser1]

Hammy, I saw those ASCAT plots you posted but boy....., even if there are one or two wind barbs actually showing 35 Kt's. that's a pretty minimal showing for data when you consider it being the solo one pass and without any additional corroborating data. I generally stand on the side of "call it as you see it" but there's something to be said for continuity too. Zero argument on it's being upgraded to a T.D. but I don't see where 6-12 hours of additional observation would've hurt prior to NHC's early upgrade to T.S. It's not as if T.S. conditions were going to threaten those in the islands to the north. This coming from someone who believed 97L should have been earlier upgraded (even if it were the size of a large waterspout lol). At least with that feature, I thought a very small tight core feature was discernible and a continuous feature that persisted for well more then a day.

I would say the call was good here especially since weaker side of the circulation was caught, but agree there is some inconsistency with when it's applied. Personally I'd like to see an across the board standard of going with the highest available measurement (unless the strongest wind is outright missed) in all cases when using ASCAT.

Definitely some application of greater consistency would be good. Reason I feel the call was not good is that at best it's reliant on one or two wind barbs at most, and based on a singular ASCAT pass. Minus any other surface corroborating data (ships reports, buoys, or wayward flung seagulls ), I'd feel more comfortable making a call to upgrade based on fairly convincing ASCAT at least 12 hours of maintained 2.0 reading via satellite analysis, along with some level of maintained CDO or COC co-located banded convection. A T.D. showing a single ASCAT 35 knot wind barb and unable to maintain any clear convective banding or displaying a full collapse of any convection near it's center, hardly seems the definition of what I've understood a T.S. to be. Even though it has largely become accepted as to what a T.S. actually is.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm curious to see if Kirk can hold out for a few days as he enters the Lesser Antilles, shear would be dropping a bit and I wonder if maybe an anti-cyclone can try to build over him.

[chaser1]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Great supporting evidence why those particular regions are not currently favorable for development to occur. Unfortunately Doc, the Captain (Kirk) is in an altogether galactic 2,500 miles to the east of those present (a lot of extra emphasis on the word "present") shear conditions.

[chaser1]

I'm curious to see if Kirk can hold out for a few days as he enters the Lesser Antilles, shear would be dropping a bit and I wonder if maybe an anti-cyclone can try to build over him.

Kirk is an overall broad envelope type system. I think far more important as to whether Kirk can "hold out", is whether the storm can "build up". A strong core supported by large convective CDO is more apt to have good outflow in all directions and aid toward moistening the environment around it, thus better capable of impacting it's immediate environment as opposed to simply becoming a victim of it. Kirk to Engine room, "raise shields".

[Condor]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Great supporting evidence why those particular regions are not currently favorable for development to occur. Unfortunately Doc, the Captain (Kirk) is in an altogether galactic 2,500 miles to the east of those present (a lot of extra emphasis on the word "present") shear conditions.

Also has favourable conditions leading up to reaching the present high amount of shear around the lesser Antilles. We will have to keep an eye out and see how this changes over the next couple days. The current models show reaching that area around Tuesday so this will give the development plenty of time to strengthen. As we all know conditions can change drastically in 24 hours.

[Condor]

[chaser1]

Been looking at the above IR loop for over 10 minutes..... i think i may be trippin'

[Ubuntwo]

All I can say is, if this is a TS, then 98L surely was as well.

[AutoPenalti]

:uarrow: Been looking at the above IR loop for over 10 minutes..... i think i may be trippin'

Seems to be trying it's best to wrap convection around the LLC

[storm_in_a_teacup]

She is chomping on that SAL...look at the outflow boundary, and the sand you can see on the visible.

Don’t assume its gender yet. You are fully aware they’re not mature enough to be sexed unless they’re tropical storm strength

Yep, as it turns out, this is no "she." Congrats, it's a boy!

Wait speaking of which is this the tropical storm people were saying was going to form from the remnants of Florence?

[Hurricaneman]

Don’t assume its gender yet. You are fully aware they’re not mature enough to be sexed unless they’re tropical storm strength

Yep, as it turns out, this is no "she." Congrats, it's a boy!

Wait speaking of which is this the tropical storm people were saying was going to form from the remnants of Florence?

Nope, that’s 98L this system formed right off of Africa

[chaser1]

"Spock, find me if you can......"

[AutoPenalti]

At this point it just looks like an open wave.

[Aric Dunn]

[Condor]

:uarrow: Been looking at the above IR loop for over 10 minutes..... i think i may be trippin'

Everytime I get the loop from the COD it does that I dont know why lol

[Condor]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-capeverde-14-48-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

For anyone looking to watch a decent IR of him developing over the past 24 hours

[Ubuntwo]

Looks open to me