ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[NDG]

GFS is all alone with its bullish intensity when put up against the other dynamic models as of 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/eeuJMOY.png

Is actually the HWRF that shows a Cat 3 on that chart, the GFS is the AVNI which shows it becoming Cat 1. BTW last night's UKMET & Euro are not here which both show it becoming a hurricane.

I think strong TS or Hurricane is on the table, but the HWRF seems to show a Cat 3+ with every storm.

Yes the HWRF has certainly not done that well with intensity this year.

[Blown Away]

We've got enough to worry about up here today when it comes to hurricanes (go Noles)... Seriously though, here comes the expected October North/NE GOM threat...

Crazy, the Noles likely to get whacked by back to back Hurricanes...

[cycloneye]

Is actually the HWRF that shows a Cat 3 on that chart, the GFS is the AVNI which shows it becoming Cat 1. BTW last night's UKMET & Euro are not here which both show it becoming a hurricane.

I think strong TS or Hurricane is on the table, but the HWRF seems to show a Cat 3+ with every storm.

Yes the HWRF has certainly not done that well with intensity this year.

Yes NDG,only look what it had with Isaac.

[p1nheadlarry]

Is actually the HWRF that shows a Cat 3 on that chart, the GFS is the AVNI which shows it becoming Cat 1. BTW last night's UKMET & Euro are not here which both show it becoming a hurricane.

I think strong TS or Hurricane is on the table, but the HWRF seems to show a Cat 3+ with every storm.

Yes the HWRF has certainly not done that well with intensity this year.

Gotta be feedback with the thermodynamics. This would be a 50% efficient Carnot engine lol

[PSUHiker31]

I'm not sure what some people are looking at... Both the GFS and UKMET have shown strong cat 2/minimal 3 intensity in the Gulf with pressures in the 960s

[NDG]

SHIPS has been trending towards lower windshear over 91L as tracks over the GOM.

[jdray]

We've got enough to worry about up here today when it comes to hurricanes (go Noles)... Seriously though, here comes the expected October North/NE GOM threat...

Crazy, the Noles likely to get whacked by back to back Hurricanes...

As a Nole fan and fellow floridian, ouch, but funny.

[p1nheadlarry]

Very skeptical of the GFS depicting a 988 mb storm in a little over 2 days.

[MacTavish]

12z GFS coming much stronger through 54hr.

[SunnyThoughts]

Very skeptical of the GFS depicting a 988 mb storm in a little over 2 days.

Yeah, seems a little far fetched, at least I hope it is.

[caneman]

Very skeptical of the GFS depicting a 988 mb storm in a little over 2 days.

Yeah, seems a little far fetched, at least I hope it is.

Not really. Several models now show that.

[CDO62]

12z GFS coming much stronger through 54hr.

Also looks a little more to the West through 54

[MacTavish]

12z GFS coming much stronger through 54hr.

Also looks a little more to the West through 54

Yep, taking a NW bend for sure

[p1nheadlarry]

Very skeptical of the GFS depicting a 988 mb storm in a little over 2 days.

Yeah, seems a little far fetched, at least I hope it is.

Not really. Several models now show that.

Well with my eyes and short-range modeling, I don't see the environment as conducive until about 48 hours. Westerly shear seems high even through then. Could be closed off by then for sure, but a hurricane? I don't know.

[p1nheadlarry]

Cold front not tilted the same at 12Z as it was at 06Z, higher heights thus a bit more west as of now

[MacTavish]

12z GFS landfall around Pensacola ~970mb

[storm4u]

Landfall 970mb western tip of Florida

[Stormcenter]

GFS has shifted much further westward compared
to previous run. I’m still very skeptical of this model
handling this potential storm.

[Stormcenter]

Canadian model SE La. landfall

[Siker]

UKMET is the strongest model right now:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 86.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79