ATL: MICHAEL - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#121 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:38 am

Blown Away wrote:
NDG wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:GFS is all alone with its bullish intensity when put up against the other dynamic models as of 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/eeuJMOY.png


Is actually the HWRF that shows a Cat 3 on that chart, the GFS is the AVNI which shows it becoming Cat 1. BTW last night's UKMET & Euro are not here which both show it becoming a hurricane.


I think strong TS or Hurricane is on the table, but the HWRF seems to show a Cat 3+ with every storm.


Yes the HWRF has certainly not done that well with intensity this year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#122 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:41 am

Noles2016 wrote:We've got enough to worry about up here today when it comes to hurricanes (go Noles)... Seriously though, here comes the expected October North/NE GOM threat...


Crazy, the Noles likely to get whacked by back to back Hurricanes... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#123 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:45 am

NDG wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
NDG wrote:
Is actually the HWRF that shows a Cat 3 on that chart, the GFS is the AVNI which shows it becoming Cat 1. BTW last night's UKMET & Euro are not here which both show it becoming a hurricane.


I think strong TS or Hurricane is on the table, but the HWRF seems to show a Cat 3+ with every storm.


Yes the HWRF has certainly not done that well with intensity this year.


Yes NDG,only look what it had with Isaac. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#124 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:50 am

NDG wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
NDG wrote:
Is actually the HWRF that shows a Cat 3 on that chart, the GFS is the AVNI which shows it becoming Cat 1. BTW last night's UKMET & Euro are not here which both show it becoming a hurricane.


I think strong TS or Hurricane is on the table, but the HWRF seems to show a Cat 3+ with every storm.


Yes the HWRF has certainly not done that well with intensity this year.


Gotta be feedback with the thermodynamics. This would be a 50% efficient Carnot engine lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#125 Postby PSUHiker31 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:59 am

I'm not sure what some people are looking at... Both the GFS and UKMET have shown strong cat 2/minimal 3 intensity in the Gulf with pressures in the 960s
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#126 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:05 am

SHIPS has been trending towards lower windshear over 91L as tracks over the GOM.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#127 Postby jdray » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:40 am

Blown Away wrote:
Noles2016 wrote:We've got enough to worry about up here today when it comes to hurricanes (go Noles)... Seriously though, here comes the expected October North/NE GOM threat...


Crazy, the Noles likely to get whacked by back to back Hurricanes... :D



As a Nole fan and fellow floridian, ouch, but funny.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#128 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:46 am

Very skeptical of the GFS depicting a 988 mb storm in a little over 2 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#129 Postby MacTavish » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:46 am

12z GFS coming much stronger through 54hr.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#130 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:47 am

p1nheadlarry wrote:Very skeptical of the GFS depicting a 988 mb storm in a little over 2 days.

Yeah, seems a little far fetched, at least I hope it is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#131 Postby caneman » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:48 am

SunnyThoughts wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:Very skeptical of the GFS depicting a 988 mb storm in a little over 2 days.

Yeah, seems a little far fetched, at least I hope it is.


Not really. Several models now show that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#132 Postby CDO62 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:49 am

MacTavish wrote:12z GFS coming much stronger through 54hr.


Also looks a little more to the West through 54
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#133 Postby MacTavish » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:51 am

CDO62 wrote:
MacTavish wrote:12z GFS coming much stronger through 54hr.


Also looks a little more to the West through 54


Yep, taking a NW bend for sure
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#134 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:53 am

caneman wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:Very skeptical of the GFS depicting a 988 mb storm in a little over 2 days.

Yeah, seems a little far fetched, at least I hope it is.


Not really. Several models now show that.


Well with my eyes and short-range modeling, I don't see the environment as conducive until about 48 hours. Westerly shear seems high even through then. Could be closed off by then for sure, but a hurricane? I don't know.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#135 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:57 am

Cold front not tilted the same at 12Z as it was at 06Z, higher heights thus a bit more west as of now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#136 Postby MacTavish » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:00 am

12z GFS landfall around Pensacola ~970mb
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#137 Postby storm4u » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:01 am

Landfall 970mb western tip of Florida
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#138 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:02 am

GFS has shifted much further westward compared
to previous run. I’m still very skeptical of this model
handling this potential storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#139 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:12 am

Canadian model SE La. landfall
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#140 Postby Siker » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:35 am

UKMET is the strongest model right now:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 86.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79
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