ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lando]

I swear she’s been around 24.5 n for 36 hours

[jdjaguar]

This could really be a diseaster for our area and community. We are closely following the storm. We are an island beach town in North Carolina and could have a profound impact on our community. The next few days will tel us a lot.

While I am not familiar with the current population of your area, I can only emphatically state that the time to evacuate, at least in our area, is BEFORE official orders are handed down by the authorities.

If you wait until then, it may be too late and you will be stuck on the road, running low on gas, and exposed.

Everybody makes their own decisions, but if the storm was headed towards my location, I would already be gassed up with xtra fuel containers, plenty of water. I would spend today boarding up, and would leave late this evening, after the initial traffic has lightened, and head inland to higher ground to points west of Raleigh.

Stay safe, and Godspeed.

[supercane4867]

Won't be surprised if RI has already started

[seahawkjd]

This could really be a diseaster for our area and community. We are closely following the storm. We are an island beach town in North Carolina and could have a profound impact on our community. The next few days will tel us a lot.

While I am not familiar with the current population of your area, I can only emphatically state that the time to evacuate, at least in our area, is BEFORE official orders are handed down by the authorities.

If you wait until then, it may be too late and you will be stuck on the road, running low on gas, and exposed.

Everybody makes their own decisions, but if the storm was headed towards my location, I would already be gassed up with xtra fuel containers, plenty of water. I would spend today boarding up, and would leave late this evening, after the initial traffic has lightened, and head inland to higher ground to points west of Raleigh.

Stay safe, and Godspeed.

Around a million people according to NOAA (the entire coast of NC).

[Hurricane Andrew]

Extremely heavy convection pulsing over the direct eastern half of the circulation...going to take a few hours to clear out an eye and solidify an eyeball, but once she does, watch out.

[reds37win]

I was in Raleigh during hurricane Fran and had just moved away when Floyd hit. We are back in Raleigh now.

Can we just do away with storms staring with F, already?

Fran was an absolute disaster for Raleigh. The city was burning debris non-stop for a year after the storm. With Floyd, the coastal plain of NC was buried underwater for weeks. This one looks like a combo of the two. We are already making preparations in addition to the emergency stockpile we have.

[KWT]

Extremely heavy convection pulsing over the direct eastern half of the circulation...going to take a few hours to clear out an eye and solidify an eyeball, but once she does, watch out.

Yeah the models really take off overnight tonight, several models get this upto major status by Monday morning.

[toad strangler]

Statistically speaking, the Carolinas in general are “due” for a major. IRT the average return rate map that the NOAA puts out.

[drewschmaltz]

There's an eye showing up on visible, Flo is likely rapidly intensifying right now.

The eyewall just burst into life in the last hour or so, very impressive. Also you can see where the eye is going to form. I think you maybe right with the RI.

I always thought that it was the older drop of MB that defined RI.

The United States National Hurricane Center previously defined rapid deepening of a tropical cyclone, when the minimum central pressure decreased by 42 millibars (1.240 inHg) over a 24-hour period.[6] However it is now defined as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h) in a 24-hour period.[1]

So, for this to be the beginning of RI, you're saying Flo will be around 110MPH this time tomorrow. It's certainly possible. I think the most vigorous RI will be between this evening and Monday evening.

[supercane4867]

[seahawkjd]

People are starting to post on Facebook here that stores in the area are already starting to empty out of things like water. Hopefully that means that people are taking this seriously (though in this case I'm thinking evacuation is more prudent)

[tolakram]

[plasticup]

People are starting to post on Facebook here that stores in the area are already starting to empty out of things like water. Hopefully that means that people are taking this seriously (though in this case I'm thinking evacuation is more prudent)

I have never understood why people do this. They know their tap water is still good before the storm arrives, right? They can just fill up any container. Fill a bathtub and you're good for a week or more.

[p1nheadlarry]

Dvorak estimate anyone?

Edit nvm found it, 4.0

[toad strangler]

People are starting to post on Facebook here that stores in the area are already starting to empty out of things like water. Hopefully that means that people are taking this seriously (though in this case I'm thinking evacuation is more prudent)

I have never understood why people do this. They know their tap water is still good before the storm arrives, right? They can just fill up any container. Fill a bathtub and you're good for a week or more.

Agree and great point. But I always stock up the water on June 1 anyway. BTW, we would use the bath water for flushing toilets. Not drinking.

[SunnyThoughts]

People are starting to post on Facebook here that stores in the area are already starting to empty out of things like water. Hopefully that means that people are taking this seriously (though in this case I'm thinking evacuation is more prudent)

I have never understood why people do this. They know their tap water is still good before the storm arrives, right? They can just fill up any container. Fill a bathtub and you're good for a week or more.

I agree about the tap water. When a storm is headed our way, I fill up 2 ltr soda bottle, plastic milk jugs etc with water. Stick them in my freezer and it helps keep your frozen foods colder longer if power goes out, also as it melts, water to drink.

[Ian2401]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherGarrett/status/1038793818961797120

[GeneratorPower]

People are starting to post on Facebook here that stores in the area are already starting to empty out of things like water. Hopefully that means that people are taking this seriously (though in this case I'm thinking evacuation is more prudent)

I have never understood why people do this. They know their tap water is still good before the storm arrives, right? They can just fill up any container. Fill a bathtub and you're good for a week or more.

Have you tried drinking 8 day old tap water that has been stored, unrefrigerated, in non-sterile containers? It’s nasty. So yeah, you can, but who wants to?

[Airboy]

Pressure around 983-984 from the recon.

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 70 kts (80.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 66 kts (76.0 mph)

[artist]