ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Twisted-core]

12z ukmet hallmarks of a landphoon after land fall.

https://imgur.com/cDoxWP5

[sphelps8681]

18Z HWRF shifts significantly east with landfall over Western tip of Cuba:

Just saying the blob looks to be near Cozumel looks like a angry monster!! LOL.

[Sciencerocks]

[DestinHurricane]

18Z HMON lol

[psyclone]

That visible shows an impressive band of diurnal convection emerging off the north coast of cuba...part of which is lifting north toward the keys prompting special marine warnings.

[bamajammer4eva]

Water temps are warmer than I expected this early in the summer

 https://twitter.com/VernonWSFA/status/1000151208433192960

[DestinHurricane]

lol look at 18Z HMON

[GumboCane83]

Is it me but the majority of the ensemble models are taking this thing to Louisiana. Just asking what are the chances that the track moves more westward? We have a jambalaya festival lol. Asking for us Cajuns.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18Z HMON lol

You never know. I laughed early last season at it. It proved me wrong.

[Ian2401]

lol look at 18Z HMON

something tells me that might be a little overkill. just a little bit

[jdjaguar]

To my admittedly layman eye, it appears a new COC is forming on a southwest- northeast axis anchored by Cozumel and the western tip of Cuba

This is further east than points resolved in the last model runs

[ronjon]

Or is it just another vort spinning around the larger gyre? If it is a center reformation, ukie model was right.

[jdjaguar]

Convection is also wrapping around this locale

[tarheelprogrammer]

lol look at 18Z HMON

something tells me that might be a little overkill. just a little bit

HWRF is also stronger. Not that strong, but trending very badly IMHO.

[AdamFirst]

Let us not forget how badly HWRF and HMON overdid intensity last year. Irma was a 200-knot category 8 deathcane on every single run between the two of them.

Considering how badly this storm looks right now, I would be surprised if it got north of 60 MPH even up near the central Gulf Coast.

[jdjaguar]

Or is it just another vort spinning around the larger gyre? If it is a center reformation, ukie model was right.

Could very well be, but is looks like it may subsume the small vort to the south, maybe relocate a bit WSW when all is said and done.

But to my eye this may very well be the dominant feature

[psyclone]

We may have to await tonight's convective evolution for clues to any center reformations. You'd think we'd get some robust shower towers over the Yucatan channel during Dmax with that deep warm water..

[cycloneye]

Note= I moved some posts that were related to model runs to the Alberto Models Thread.

[stormreader]

Let us not forget how badly HWRF and HMON overdid intensity last year. Irma was a 200-knot category 8 deathcane on every single run between the two of them.

Considering how badly this storm looks right now, I would be surprised if it got north of 60 MPH even up near the central Gulf Coast.

Be careful!

[Alyono]

some need to take a step back and think through the dynamics and thermodynamics of what will happen.

This is expected to get under the upper low. Have we all forgotten how many times we have seen development over 20-22C waters when the surface low moves under the upper low? This time, we will be over ~28C waters. The lapse rates should be even steeper than we see with the late season North Atlantic as well as TCs in the Mediterranean