ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Pressure around 983-984 from the recon.

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 70 kts (80.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 66 kts (76.0 mph)

What I think is more important (I think) is that the center is around 24.3 according to recon - might make a difference extrapolated 5 days out - It is still loosing latitude - this was forecast by just a fraction of the models. This is lower than any NHC forecast had Flo at.

This is very concerning. If the 24.3 N latitude is indeed correct, it keeps the door open for southward and westward shifts.

[gatorcane]

The slight loss in latitude is not a surprise as models like the GFS show this. The storm will eventually turn WNW and start gradually gaining latitude. Should stay well east of Florida given model guidance. Looks like the setup for a Carolinas hit.

[SFLcane]

Florida isn’t even mentioned by the nhc as of 11 so basically from the Carolinas to mid atlantic need get those preps done by midweek. Feeling much better here in Florida not that Florence was ever a serious threat by any means.

[jdjaguar]

Pressure around 983-984 from the recon.

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 70 kts (80.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 66 kts (76.0 mph)

What I think is more important (I think) is that the center is around 24.3 according to recon - might make a difference extrapolated 5 days out - It is still loosing latitude - this was forecast by just a fraction of the models. This is lower than any NHC forecast had Flo at.

This is very concerning. If the 24.3 N latitude is indeed correct, it keeps the door open for southward and westward shifts.

I think we are just about in the clear NorthJax.
The NHC 11:00am discussion removed North FL/Ga from area of concern and shifted to Interests in SC to MidAtlantic States.

[hurricaneCW]

I think any current southward adjustments are due to the developing eyewall and wobbling center. That will most likely be corrected as it continues to intensify.

The strength of the ridge could however cause it to make LF closer to SC than NC.

[Nasdaq]

Florence trying to form an eye again https://weather.us/satellite/561-w-241- ... html#play4

[Hurricaneman]

Pressure around 983-984 from the recon.

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 70 kts (80.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 66 kts (76.0 mph)

What I think is more important (I think) is that the center is around 24.3 according to recon - might make a difference extrapolated 5 days out - It is still loosing latitude - this was forecast by just a fraction of the models. This is lower than any NHC forecast had Flo at.

This is very concerning. If the 24.3 N latitude is indeed correct, it keeps the door open for southward and westward shifts.

I also noticed looking at the steering that it looks like a slow movement to south of due west for the foreseeable future like 12 to 24hrs but that could change as the ridge builds in

[KWT]

The slight loss in latitude is not a surprise as models like the GFS show this. The storm will eventually turn WNW and start gradually gaining latitude. Should stay well east of Florida given model guidance. Looks like the setup for a Carolinas hit.

Agreed there seems to be good agreement on the Carolinas now. However certainly VA will need to be aware due to the sheer amount of rainfall if it does slow right down.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Florence about to reveal her eye on satellite.

[Highteeld]

Nascent eye feature is back on visible sat.

[Hurricaneman]

What I think is more important (I think) is that the center is around 24.3 according to recon - might make a difference extrapolated 5 days out - It is still loosing latitude - this was forecast by just a fraction of the models. This is lower than any NHC forecast had Flo at.

This is very concerning. If the 24.3 N latitude is indeed correct, it keeps the door open for southward and westward shifts.

I think we are just about in the clear NorthJax.
The NHC 11:00am discussion removed North FL/Ga from area of concern and shifted to Interests in SC to MidAtlantic States.

I wouldn’t say in the clear until all models shift away from your area but it’s about a 10% chance with Georgia being a 25% chance and 50%+ for the Carolinas

[tolakram]

The cone is an unthinking circle, and while Florida is out now it could easily move back in with subtle shifts south. I do think NC/SC is the most likely target.

[LarryWx]

I’d think the current strengthening would favor the more northerly ensemble members since the weakest members have tended to be among the furthest south. Nevertheless, the lack of latitude gain to this point should also be watched very carefully as the NHC has it already starting to gain some and to be up to 24.5N at 8PM EDT and all the way up to 24.9N at 8AM EDT tomorrow. Will it actually get that far north by these times? Also, I think a pretty key benchmark per the 0Z EPS members will be whether or not it is N of 25.0N when it reaches 60W. If it is N of 25.0N then, that would be good news for CHS south per the EPS.

[otowntiger]

Pressure around 983-984 from the recon.

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 70 kts (80.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 66 kts (76.0 mph)

What I think is more important (I think) is that the center is around 24.3 according to recon - might make a difference extrapolated 5 days out - It is still loosing latitude - this was forecast by just a fraction of the models. This is lower than any NHC forecast had Flo at.

This is very concerning. If the 24.3 N latitude is indeed correct, it keeps the door open for southward and westward shifts.

There is certainly cause for concern, but I really think that the NHC’s forecast is pretty solid now, especially since we are now inside 4 days. In recent memory I don’t recall wild swings of their track in this window of time.

[toad strangler]

What I think is more important (I think) is that the center is around 24.3 according to recon - might make a difference extrapolated 5 days out - It is still loosing latitude - this was forecast by just a fraction of the models. This is lower than any NHC forecast had Flo at.

This is very concerning. If the 24.3 N latitude is indeed correct, it keeps the door open for southward and westward shifts.

There is certainly cause for concern, but I really think that the NHC’s forecast is pretty solid now, especially since we are now inside 4 days. In recent memory I don’t recall wild swings of their track in this window of time.

If there were to be a wild swing to me it would be as a fish missing OBX entirely.

[KWT]

I’d think the current strengthening would favor the more northerly ensemble members since the weakest members have tended to be among the furthest south. Nevertheless, the lack of latitude gain to this point should also be watched very carefully as the NHC has it already starting to gain some and to be up to 24.5N at 8PM EDT and all the way up to 24.9N at 8AM EDT tomorrow. Will it actually get that far north by these times? Also, I think a pretty key benchmark per the 0Z EPS members will be whether or not it is N of 25.0N when it reaches 60W. If it is N of 25.0N then, that would be good news for CHS south per the EPS.

What is interesting is that the system has been generally south of the NHC forecast despite the NHC strength forecasting being great thus far.

With that being said I think now it is strengthening it should start to gain some latitude. Just starting to get more agreement on NC more than SC at the moment.

[tolakram]

NHC cone ride, so far.

[Aric Dunn]

must keep a close eye on the motion today.. as is usual with building ridges they often come with more drawn out wsw to west motion.. especially when the are strong as in this case.

[Blown Away]

must keep a close eye on the motion today.. as is usual with building ridges they often come with more drawn out wsw to west motion.. especially when the are strong as in this case.

Slightly S already...

[drewschmaltz]

Just using data from the advisories. Here are the last 10 advisories and the forecasted position closest to 25N

24.9N 59.3W
24.8N 58.3W
24.8N 57.4W
25.0N 58.3W
24.8N 57.5W
24.9N 59.0W
25.0N 57.8W
24.8N 57.0W
24.9N 55.1W
25.0N 54.3W

If Flo hasn't crossed 25N by 60W I would expect to see some moderate model changes. Here's why I think this: 25N isn't just a nice even number, it happens to be where the accelerated northern motion begins.