ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1037783417549668352

[GCANE]

Looking like a stall.
Looking worse on each run.

[ img]http://i64.tinypic.com/335d309.png[/img]

A stall is almost worst-case scenario for that region. They are (somewhat) used to TS/Cat 1 storms blowing quickly through by the amount of rain you get with a stalled hurricane is nearly unheard of there.

Plus the position with the water piling up.

[SFLcane]

12z UKMET ensembles...

[AutoPenalti]

Is that recently released? I thought the UKMET had all ensembles in the Carolinas?

[floridasun78]

what reading now i got home that area need watch this from north carolina too new England

[cjrciadt]

12z UKMET ensembles...

Ugh...

[chris_fit]

12Z ECMF Ensembles

[Aric Dunn]

12z UKMET ensembles...

that is very believable and more realistic. it may even shift back south more..

[Aric Dunn]

Since it has now turned pretty much west. the current 12z euro had it moving nw for another 24 hours.. I smell a south shift in the models later once the motion is ingested. likely not until the 00z run

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1037788071503249408

[pgoss11]

12z UKMET ensembles...

that is very believable and more realistic. it may even shift back south more..

Are you thinking Florence will dip southwest more and stay on a more westerly position before she turns? Do you think models are underestimating the strength of the ridge?

[floridasun78]

UKMET home lone showing this so not sure if go by UKMET

[Aric Dunn]

12z UKMET ensembles...

that is very believable and more realistic. it may even shift back south more..

Are you thinking Florence will dip southwest more and stay on a more westerly position before she turns? Do you think models are underestimating the strength of the ridge?

yes and yes.. the models almost always turn a cyclone back wnw out of a sw to wsw dip to quickly. it is typically much more drawn out.

[mlfreeman]

12z UKMET ensembles...

that is very believable and more realistic. it may even shift back south more..

Do not want.
The ensemble mean would be right over my house.

[plasticup]

Do not want.
The ensemble mean would be right over my house.

The safest place to be is in the middle of the model guidance 7 days out

[HurricaneEric]

12z UKMET ensembles...

About half of them still send this towards SFL

I wonder if the continued deterioration of Florence (at this point will it even have a LLC by tonight???) makes the system that much more influenced by a stronger ridge.

I’ve seen conflicting ideas on this. Either the storm is weak enough to be pushed south and west by a ridge or the storm is strong enough to pump the ridge and strengthen it. Either way this shows how fickle intensity and track forecasting is.

[Hurricaneman]

12Z ECMF Ensembles

Looks like 10 or so eps ensembles landfalling Orr close to landfalling on Long Island and Southern New England so I don’t think anyone is out of the woods north of 26N especially since the Euro ensembles are anywhere from Florida 1 ensemble to a majority into the Carolinas

[chaser1]

12z UKMET ensembles...

OMG

Day's ago I was pegging Florence "the city" as my early Florence "the Hurricane" landfall prediction. Having previously lived in Miami when Andrew struck, I couldn't help but find a few curiously odd similarities between Florence and Andrew but no way would "that" same scenario play out again anytime soon (not to mention Florence's higher latitude). Then I see this run of UK ensemble members?! Can't tell you that a little PTSD didn't feel like it was kickin' in.

[MississippiWx]

Yikes. This rapid weakening is not a good thing. I'd be very vigilant anywhere along the East Coast as landfall probs are steadily increasing.

[AutoPenalti]

So we can stop with the Florida “all clear” posts right? It’s still at 6-7 day forecast...