ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Lets see if the AF recon finds those 100 knot fl level winds the NOAA recon recorded.

025500 2310N 08500W 6954 03001 9889 +079 +079 173084 090 066 028 00

[Hammy]

Lets see if the AF recon finds those 100 knot fl level winds the NOAA recon recorded.

025500 2310N 08500W 6954 03001 9889 +079 +079 173084 090 066 028 00

AF often finds higher winds (no idea why that is though) so the next pass will be interesting.

Edit: 90kt, spoke too soon.

[edu2703]

From NHC Forecast Advisory #10

Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field, making it more shear resistant.

[NDG]

This is interesting from the latest discussion.

Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face
of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear
calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more
inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field,
making it more shear resistant. Having said that, all of the model
guidance calls for the shear to decrease to around 10 kt or less by
36 hours, which argues for at least steady intensification during
that time given that Michael will be moving over warm SSTs of
28.5C-29C, which are about 1-2 deg C above average for this time of
the year.

[supercane4867]

According to 11PM NHC discussion, Michael continues to defy common sense and logic...

[CrazyC83]

Didn't Opal go through decent shear and get well organized, before it bombed out overnight down to 916mb?

[meriland29]

I just want to quote this very interesting bit off the latest NHC advisory../

"Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face
of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear
calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more
inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field,
making it more shear resistant."

Interesting wordage there...

[NDG]

AF recon didn't find the 100 knot flight level winds but finds the pressure a little lower than the last pass.
23.1N & 85.44W

030230 2306N 08526W 6967 02909 9694 +168 +073 107006 006 024 000 00

[northjaxpro]

Pressure down to 969 mb

[EquusStorm]

This is about the time I refresh the page every couple of minutes desperate for more info, but there's really not much more out there right now yet

[FLpanhandle91]

Hot towers firing southeast of the center now. Could be wheels up for rapid intensification.

[NDG]

Just an FYI on how the forecast track has been left biased in the short term, as if the low level circulation keeps wanting to chase the convection and MLC being pushed to the right by the mod shear.

[eastcoastFL]

I just want to quote this very interesting bit off the latest NHC advisory../

"Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face
of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear
calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more
inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field,
making it more shear resistant."

Interesting wordage there...

I found that interesting also. Imagine canes start evolving to become shear resistant?

[cheezyWXguy]

SE quadrant just lit up with more convection in the last 15-20 min. Michael is on the verge of closing off ring (albeit still a bit misshapen) of -75C tops

[Ntxw]

This is about the time I refresh the page every couple of minutes desperate for more info, but there's really not much more out there right now yet

Aside what from what recon is finding there isn't much to post yet. I suspect a lot of activity here in the morning and tomorrow.

Michael has definitely fired off strong convection this evening with cold cloud tops. As with any storm if the core can really get it together, getting to a major shouldn't be a problem. Shear seems to be the biggest inhibitor but thus far has not been a problem for the storm somehow.

[Hugo1989]

Mike is getting ready for the Dmax.

[tropicwatch]

Actually able to see Michael's eye.

[cheezyWXguy]

SE quadrant just lit up with more convection in the last 15-20 min. Michael is on the verge of closing off ring (albeit still a bit misshapen) of -75C tops

Actually as of now, its cranking out a ring of -80C which is about 2/3 complete now. Definitely strengthening now, if it keeps this up pressure and wind should start to respond in the next couple hours.

[SeaBrz_FL]

This is about the time I refresh the page every couple of minutes desperate for more info, but there's really not much more out there right now yet

Yep, know that feeling well. A four-hour sleep shift followed by an hour to check the web, repeat, repeat.

[meriland29]

I just want to quote this very interesting bit off the latest NHC advisory../

"Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face
of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear
calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more
inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field,
making it more shear resistant."

Interesting wordage there...

I found that interesting also. Imagine canes start evolving to become shear resistant?

Like viruses? Lol