ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Looks a lot less stacked than a few hours ago. I was thinking water temps, but it looks like the shear is increasing quite a bit.

I don't see how water temps would cause weakening. They are plenty warm enough (bath water 29C) and OHC, which I didn't think was low, isn't that relevant since it is moving steadily.

[Hurricane Andrew]

To my eyes, the LLC is displaced somewhat to the south of the strongest mid-level spin. Typical of a sheared cyclone.

[KWT]

It's starting to look like the center has really tucked into the deep convection, may also be suggestive of a tighter core trying to form.

I do think there was some shear, especially on the BW quad, but it has soon start to become more curved again.

[LarryWx]

IF Michael were to hit N FL as a major H, it would become the latest on record to do so and the 2nd latest on the northern Gulf coast back to 1851. Only #10 of 1886, which hit LA/TX on 10/12, hit later than when Michael will hit.

[aperson]

It's starting to look like the center has really tucked into the deep convection, may also be suggestive of a tighter core trying to form.

I do think there was some shear, especially on the BW quad, but it has soon start to become more curved again.

Agreed with this. I think we finally have signs of an intact inner core and it will likely mix down an eye soon as it becomes better stacked.

[Hammy]

Hard to tell if the outflow is expanding west or if it's just from a westward jog, or if the convection is wrapping around or entraining some dry air. A bit starved for data since it's now moved out of radar range, there's no recon, and there's been no recent microwave passes.

[northjaxpro]

Hard to tell if the outflow is expanding west or if it's just from a westward jog, or if the convection is wrapping around or entraining some dry air. A bit starved for data since it's now moved out of radar range, there's no recon, and there's been no recent microwave passes.

Convection is wrapping within the inner core. The inner core is finally tightening and now is when I.am anticipating some strengthening to commence soon.with Michael.

[tropicwatch]

Hard to tell if the outflow is expanding west or if it's just from a westward jog, or if the convection is wrapping around or entraining some dry air. A bit starved for data since it's now moved out of radar range, there's no recon, and there's been no recent microwave passes.

Convection is wrapping within the inner core. The inner core is finally tightening and now is when I.am anticipating some strengthening to commence soon.with Michael.

Could find out soon. Kermit is in the air.

[GCANE]

Going to be going over the Loop Current this afternoon.

[Hammy]

Recon data shows 80kt in the northern part of the circulation, the same area where the weakest core winds were earlier, so (despite satellite appearance) it's at least the same as earlier, if not a bit stronger.

[northjaxpro]

Going to be going over the Loop Current this afternoon.

http://i66.tinypic.com/2dkdcmo.gif

Yes indeed. The cyclone also finally is getting far enough away from being influenced by the Yucatan and allowing the inner core to tighten. So definitely am anticipating Michael to flex his muscles later today and show some further intensification unfortunately.

[KWT]

Still bursting and waning, good pattern for it not strengthening too rapidly, looks pretty steady state at the moment and recon is suggesting the same.

[GCANE]

Radial cirrus fingers 270 degrees coverage.
Absent only in NE quad.

[GCANE]

Michael will be moving into a moderately strong Theta-E ridge to the NW.
Very close to the Loop Current.
2 strong conducive factors for intensification.

[GCANE]

Appears to be some displacement of the warm core from the surface low.

[GCANE]

Small boundary-layer temperature inversion at the CoC.
Needs to break, then Micheal will be balls to the wall.

[GCANE]

Looking at the drops from Gonzo.
Basically 1 thru 9 has no shear and very moist air thru the tropospheric column.
Starts to dry out at 10 with increasing shear.
A desert 11 and beyond.

[GCANE]

I don't think I have seen this many recons in the air before.

[GCANE]

Kermit VDM reporting NA on the eye characteristics.

[storm4u]

Seems to have wrapped in dryer air overnite which made him stabilize.. but seems to be overcoming it now and should start to strengthen pretty quick..