ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[fox13weather]

All storms near Florence's current location have curved OTS. Yes, Florence could buck the trend and be the first one not to. I am a big fan of climatology.

[SouthFLTropics]

The latter part of this GFS run is almost unbelievable. What's the odds that Florence could pass south and west of Bermuda and loop around and strike Bermuda from the North? I don't think I ever recall a storm hitting Bermuda from the North like that. Weird.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

about to dive sw again..

Let us hope. There is a lot of uncertainty here.

[Aric Dunn]

I say landfall florida this time.. maybe sc lol

[floridasun78]

Focusing on the first couple of frames from both the Euro and GFS has shown more SW shifts, which leads me to believe that at some point they will adjust once more later tonight.

Has there been any word on whether G-IV has a date set to take samples?

last time i heard place in hawai going hurr

[toad strangler]

All storms near Florence's current location have curved OTS. Yes, Florence could buck the trend and be the first one not to. I am a big fan of climatology.

All storms in that tiny 168 year 1850 to 2018 window for sure. At least we are pretty sure from 1850 through 1900. I wish we had 1,000 years of good data lol

[SouthFLTropics]

This GFS run reminds me of Matthew's forecasted track at one time, just further north. Matthew went up the Florida coast to South Carolina and was forecasted to loop around. GFS has Flo doing it from the Carolinas up to New England and then looping.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Oh my god it's actually coming back lol Long range gfs is always fun to watch just because of how absurd some of its solutions are.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

All storms near Florence's current location have curved OTS. Yes, Florence could buck the trend and be the first one not to. I am a big fan of climatology.

All storms in that tiny 168 year 1850 to 2018 window for sure. At least we are pretty sure from 1850 through 1900. I wish we had 1,000 years of good data lol

Heck, even 500 would be good.

[SFLcane]

I say landfall florida this time.. maybe sc lol

No way it loops that far south it should get picked soon

[SouthFLTropics]

The surf, rip currents, and beach erosion along the Eastern seaboard will be monumental if this run plays out.

[TheDreamTraveler]

uhhh its moving due west now lol. theres the rest of the loop.

[PTrackerLA]

916mb at 240hrs on the 18z GFS, imagine the ACE produced with this one storm...

[supercane4867]

GFS trying to produce a 915mb tropical cyclone just south of 40N, trash model.

[Aric Dunn]

finally a trough coming.. couple days to wait. that was funny to watch though as well.

[Sciencerocks]

GFS trying to produce a 915mb tropical cyclone just south of 40N, trash model.

Lane was a major hurricane over 26.5c waters and norman was a major over about the same during the past 24-36 hours.

I doubt 916 but 940 isn't outside possible.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The gfs and euro are really agreeing on it either looping or stalling off the coast for a while. Not sure if that's what will happen since it's so far out. Still a ton of variables at play.

[SouthFLTropics]

That makes for a helluva surf contest on the Jersey Shore. SURFS UP BIG KAHUNA!!! Lots of variables in play here. This is definitely fascinating to watch.

[psyclone]

All storms near Florence's current location have curved OTS. Yes, Florence could buck the trend and be the first one not to. I am a big fan of climatology.

I hear you and I agree. Leaning on climo makes sense. On the other hand that logic skunked us pretty bad just a year ago with Irma. The last storm to impact the US from close to Irma's origin was the Georgia sea islands hurricane of 1893 so when that storm formed 3500 miles from us i initially put it in the disregard pile. but 12 days later she bent the pines pretty good around here. The current 5 day track from the NHC would have me tuning in each day with intense interest from the mid atlantic northward...and of course in Bermuda.

[supercane4867]

GFS trying to produce a 915mb tropical cyclone just south of 40N, trash model.

Lane was a major hurricane over 26.5c waters.

It's not the SST that matter, It's the latitude. There have been no TC in the world that can deepen into such pressures at that latitude. Also, You can get a CAT3 at 26C waters doesn't mean you can easily get a CAT5. The physics just don't support such.