ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Latest saved Radar/Satellite.

[TheStormExpert]

Another look, eye clearing out.

[GCANE]

Kermit measuring a 39 mm/hr rain-rate cell, in the clear, east of the CoC.

[BobHarlem]

Dry air still along the west side:

[tropicwatch]

Dry air still along the west side:

Does not appear to be hindering Michael and the outflow appears to be expanding.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks to me Michael's about to drop a massive eye.

[xironman]

With shear starting to crash the dry air should not be a huge issue.

[tolakram]

Long IR loop. Much more symmetrical this morning.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-gulf-13-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

NT Microphysics makes it easier to locate the center.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-gulf-ntmicro-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[FLpanhandle91]

89 knot unflagged SFMR.

103630 2431N 08549W 7496 02281 9724 +163 //// 161050 055 089 010 01

Pressure around 969.

[Slughitter3]

Good Morning All,
I Hope to be on here quite a bit today. I haven't taken a peak since about 6PM EDT and....what a show! Shortwave IR is showing a massive eye forming with a little bit of mesovorts still spinning around it. Looks to be firing on all cylinders.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks like the eyewall structure is coming together. Convection firing almost all way around on E and SE side of the inner core. If it fills in the SW side, we'll see the pressure drop and winds increase as it will be able to hold off the dry air. Looks easily to be an intensifying hurricane at landfall- always bad. Prayers for the folks there.

[KWT]

89kts SFMR and flight level winds multiple times between 95-100kts. Will almost certainly be upgraded to 85kts, could go to 90kts...

[jlauderdal]

I don't think I have seen this many recons in the air before.

irma had multiple planes up at any given time, they threw the book at it and it still went farther west than they thought it would

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon suggests Category 2 status. FL winds 100 knots, SFMR 89 knots, ESLP ~968.7mb.

[Nimbus]

Looks to me Michael's about to drop a massive eye.

A large eye requires a lot more inflow and there is a somewhat dry environment to the west.
Lets hope Michael is like the guy that got into the habit of eating a 16" Papa John's pizza every night instead of the 8" size that met his metabolic caloric needs.
By the time he is ready to retire in Florida he will need a nursing home.

[NDG]

Looks like Michael is starting to strengthen again this morning, NOAA's latest pass on the eastern quadrant.

103500 2430N 08542W 7511 02308 9791 +142 //// 158096 098 085 068 01
103530 2430N 08544W 7493 02304 9755 +148 //// 162091 100 086 054 01
103600 2430N 08546W 7436 02357 9733 +158 //// 167060 067 084 024 01
103630 2431N 08549W 7496 02281 9724 +163 //// 161050 055 089 010 01

[PSUHiker31]

The satellite appearance is looking much better with -80 C wrapped all the way around. Recon appears to support 100-105 mph.

[northjaxpro]

Definitely ramping up now with intensity.

[p1nheadlarry]

Michael will be moving into a moderately strong Theta-E ridge to the NW.
Very close to the Loop Current.
2 strong conducive factors for intensification.

http://i68.tinypic.com/28a7ynd.png

Was worried about the CI in the Gulf

[BYG Jacob]

Dry air still along the west side:

https://i.imgur.com/P3vF3pK.jpg

Still not getting entrained in the system.