ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I have seen a lot of storms take a WSW dive once a ridge builds in before going west and wnw. It is possible i suppose for this to happen with Florence. Even if it does happen the chances for north florida strike are nil.

How did you come up with that estimate?

[eastcoastFL]

Wind speed rising and pressure dropping at the buoy nearest to Florence

[Bad_Hurricane]

NOAA2 Mission #2 into FLORENCE - Finished. It's seems that they couldn't find center with last pass. Strange.

[supercane4867]

18z best track up to 70kt

AL, 06, 2018090918, , BEST, 0, 244N, 567W, 70, 978, HU

[LarryWx]

18z best track up to 70kt

AL, 06, 2018090918, , BEST, 0, 244N, 567W, 70, 978, HU

Latitude 24.4 means straight west last 3 hours. On NHC track pretty much.

[AutoPenalti]

Did Recon have trouble finding the center?

[chaser1]

Best track still showing 24.4. Flo has got to start gaining latitude by tomm. a.m otherwise the storm's position will have already passed south of all present global model positions for that time. Model tracks would certainly end up adjusting southward a little bit.

[Aric Dunn]

Best track still showing 24.4. Flo has got to start gaining latitude by tomm. a.m otherwise the storm's position will have already passed south of all present global model positions for that time. Model tracks would certainly end up adjusting southward a little bit.

[chaser1]

Yeah Eric, I think i'm sticking with Savannah. This due to Course correction and strength of westward building ridge.

[Hurricaneman]

Best track still showing 24.4. Flo has got to start gaining latitude by tomm. a.m otherwise the storm's position will have already passed south of all present global model positions for that time. Model tracks would certainly end up adjusting southward a little bit.

Or if both a late turner and flatter ridge happen Florida is not off the hook

[JarrodB]

I have seen a lot of storms take a WSW dive once a ridge builds in before going west and wnw. It is possible i suppose for this to happen with Florence. Even if it does happen the chances for north florida strike are nil.

How did you come up with that estimate?

What estimate?

It is pretty clear Florida is in the clear. I just think it is possible for WSW when the ridge fills in and Florence will be on SE side of the high.

[KWT]

I have seen a lot of storms take a WSW dive once a ridge builds in before going west and wnw. It is possible i suppose for this to happen with Florence. Even if it does happen the chances for north florida strike are nil.

How did you come up with that estimate?

What estimate?

It is pretty clear Florida is in the clear. I just think it is possible for WSW when the ridge fills in and Florence will be on SE side of the high.

It was pretty clear New Orleans was in the clear in 2005 from Katrina before it dived WSW, it was pretty clear E.Texas was in the clear from Ike in 2008, it was pretty clear Florida would be in the clear from Irma before it too went westwards further and further, it was pretty clear Florence was going to be at 30N by 65W, etc...

Weather has a funny way of throwing curveballs, however unlikely they appear at the time. (PS, not me saying it will happen, but still enough time to shift things...

[Aric Dunn]

According to the offical forecast. it should already be starting to make the wnw turn in 6 to 8 hours. and by 6z start accelerating.

we shall see.. and will no by later tonight if it will get adjusted.

[Ken711]

According to the offical forecast. it should already be starting to make the wnw turn in 6 to 8 hours. and by 6z start accelerating.

we shall see.. and will no by later tonight if it will get adjusted.

Do you see and track implications if it doesn't make that turn as forecasted. Could that imply a slightly further S and W landfall?

[JarrodB]

It was pretty clear New Orleans was in the clear in 2005 from Katrina before it dived WSW, it was pretty clear E.Texas was in the clear from Ike in 2008, it was pretty clear Florida would be in the clear from Irma before it too went westwards further and further, it was pretty clear Florence was going to be at 30N by 65W, etc...

Weather has a funny way of throwing curveballs, however unlikely they appear at the time. (PS, not me saying it will happen, but still enough time to shift things...

NOLA was never in the clear for Katrina, same for Ike, and most certainly the same for Irma and Florida...at least for the time frame we are looking at.

A Florida strike would be unprecedented in terms of climatology and none of the models are taking Florence that way.

A Georgia strike is still very unlikely.....

We will see what the experts say once the ridge fills in and Florence starts moving. I have only been tracking storms for 25+ years.

[chaser1]

While posing the question whether any other year contained two simultaneous Atlantic hurricane landfall events on the same day, terstorm 1012 referenced this particular year/storm (1893). Though I don't believe any other hurricane made landfall on that same exact day, kudos for having mentioned the storm and year. I found it interesting that there were 4 active Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic at the same time. Also rather interesting to me was that this storm made landfall in Savannah, as I believe Florence could potentially threaten there as well. Finally, take a look at the fascinatingly similar track between it and Florence.

[Duddy]

When would we normally begin to see watches or warnings posted from the NHC?

Also wow, just realized I've been a member of Storm2k for 12 years now. Doesn't feel like that long haha.

[JarrodB]

When would we normally begin to see watches or warnings posted from the NHC?

When the storm is 72 to 96 hours out.

[Kazmit]

When would we normally begin to see watches or warnings posted from the NHC?

Also wow, just realized I've been a member of Storm2k for 12 years now. Doesn't feel like that long haha.

Still quite a while, it has to be 48 hours from landfall. Right now it's a little less than 5 days out.

[StormPyrate]

It was pretty clear New Orleans was in the clear in 2005 from Katrina before it dived WSW, it was pretty clear E.Texas was in the clear from Ike in 2008, it was pretty clear Florida would be in the clear from Irma before it too went westwards further and further, it was pretty clear Florence was going to be at 30N by 65W, etc...

Weather has a funny way of throwing curveballs, however unlikely they appear at the time. (PS, not me saying it will happen, but still enough time to shift things...

NOLA was never in the clear for Katrina, same for Ike, and most certainly the same for Irma and Florida...at least for the time frame we are looking at.

A Florida strike would be unprecedented in terms of climatology and none of the models are taking Florence that way.

A Georgia strike is still very unlikely.....

We will see what the experts say once the ridge fills in and Florence starts moving. I have only been tracking storms for 25+ years.

Are you sure, I lived in New Orleans during Katrina, I am pretty sure we were outside the cone right up until Tuesday the week before