ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Steve]

Discussions of Florence should be placed in the discussion thread. This thread should be for posting models, right? We shouldn't discuss the potential track in two threads. Post models here, discuss there...

Can we discuss the model solutions track and intensity or just post models?

I think you can refer to the solutions and their contributions to track and intensity. A couple years ago they made the forum hyper-organized so it gets a little dicey to where warnings go in one thread, maybe conditions sometimes in another, models and then discussion. That’s one of my only 2 complaints on the forum and it’s not major. But it gets aggravating sometimes when you’re discussing a model and it gets into an intelligent conversation that’s going to inevitably drift a bit. I think the mods are pretty fair though just the same.

[Bocadude85]

Interestingly the 18Z HWRF is south of the 12z UKMET in the short term and just north of the UKMET in the long term.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

[otowntiger]

Interestingly the 18Z HWRF is south of the 12z UKMET in the short term and just north of the UKMET in the long term.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Wow! Looking at the graphic versions of those models paints a very different picture of what’s going on then just reading peoples comments along the way. I would ha d thought everything was shifting south but in this indicates the opposite. The Ukmet is way north of where it was and everything else is too. Seems like the chances of recurve have increased. Am I right?

[floridasun78]

Interestingly the 18Z HWRF is south of the 12z UKMET in the short term and just north of the UKMET in the long term.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Wow! Looking at the graphic versions of those models paints a very different picture of what’s going on then just reading peoples comments along the way. I would ha d thought everything was shifting south but in this indicates the opposite. The Ukmet is way north of where it was and everything else is too. Seems like the chances of recurve have increased. Am I right?

too early to say it long way before we know maybe by mon

[AxaltaRacing24]

Interestingly the 18Z HWRF is south of the 12z UKMET in the short term and just north of the UKMET in the long term.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Wow! Looking at the graphic versions of those models paints a very different picture of what’s going on then just reading peoples comments along the way. I would ha d thought everything was shifting south but in this indicates the opposite. The Ukmet is way north of where it was and everything else is too. Seems like the chances of recurve have increased. Am I right?

I feel that this is just windshield wiping going on. Remember after the shifts to Florida, the models took Irma out to sea again, only to shift west into the gulf.

[LarryWx]

Interestingly the 18Z HWRF is south of the 12z UKMET in the short term and just north of the UKMET in the long term.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Wow! Looking at the graphic versions of those models paints a very different picture of what’s going on then just reading peoples comments along the way. I would ha d thought everything was shifting south but in this indicates the opposite. The Ukmet is way north of where it was and everything else is too. Seems like the chances of recurve have increased. Am I right?

I also think the chance for a total CONUS miss has increased a little bit partially because the UKMET has shifted north quite a bit. Keep in mind though that I never had the chance at OTS low simply because of climo more than anything else. That being said, I also think the chance for a NC or further north hit has actually increased some. But I think the chance for FL, GA, and SC has dropped a fair bit, especially central and south FL. Regardless of the trends as Northjax so aptly reminds us, there’s absolutely no “all clear” that can be given for any part of the US east coast and probably won’t be for awhile.

[MacTavish]

Interestingly the 18Z HWRF is south of the 12z UKMET in the short term and just north of the UKMET in the long term.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Wow! Looking at the graphic versions of those models paints a very different picture of what’s going on then just reading peoples comments along the way. I would ha d thought everything was shifting south but in this indicates the opposite. The Ukmet is way north of where it was and everything else is too. Seems like the chances of recurve have increased. Am I right?

I feel that this is just windshield wiping going on. Remember after the shifts to Florida, the models took Irma out to sea again, only to shift west into the gulf.

Setup with Irma was different and the storms position approaching the US was ideal for the track it took.
I would say it would take a miracle at this point for a hit anywhere south of Jacksonville. Anything is possible though.

[tolakram]

On the topic of discussion in the models thread .....

Try and avoid the one liners, or even worse constantly telling people that models will change and it's silly to fillintheblank. Discussion OF model runs is what this thread is all about.

Some of you have gone back to last year and looked up the model information from the Irma thread. We have combined these in the past with the discussion thread but starting this year we will keep them separate for easier lookup. So, with that said, imagine looking up this thread next year. How many posts will you have to sort through to get the model info you want? How many are useful? That's the intent of the model thread.

Not sure I helped any here, but there ya go.

[NDG]

0z early models. Pretty good consensus approximately where will it be by next Tuesday night.

[Bocadude85]

Wow! Looking at the graphic versions of those models paints a very different picture of what’s going on then just reading peoples comments along the way. I would ha d thought everything was shifting south but in this indicates the opposite. The Ukmet is way north of where it was and everything else is too. Seems like the chances of recurve have increased. Am I right?

I feel that this is just windshield wiping going on. Remember after the shifts to Florida, the models took Irma out to sea again, only to shift west into the gulf.

Setup with Irma was different and the storms position approaching the US was ideal for the track it took.
I would say it would take a miracle at this point for a hit anywhere south of Jacksonville. Anything is possible though.

I’m sorry but it would hardly take a miracle for Florence to landfall anywhere south of Jacksonville, All it would take is a little longer of the wsw motion that most of the models are forecasting to occur and a slightly stronger ridge oriented a little farther southwest then what is currently being depicted by the models. Is this scenario likely? Of course not but it is far from impossible. The TVCN has been shifting southwest all day and every advisory package the NHC has followed suit in shifting the forecast track southwest. Currently the Mid-Atlantic states are most at risk but a lot can change in 6-7 days.

[Frank2]

The good news is the fairly rapid east to west progression of cold fronts and probably why the models are showing a looping recurve, though if the shear remains there might not be much left.

P.S. Once a system gets as battered as Florence is right now, the chance of regeneration does decrease - the old "a perfectly spinning top no longer spins true once it's bumped" law of physics. My guess if it's lowered to a TS at 11 (probably) they will likewise start to consider lowering regeneration by the day shift, if the weakening trend continues. The models have not done very well with Florence...

[wxman57]

The good news is the fairly rapid east to west progression of cold fronts and probably why the models are showing a looping recurve, though if the shear remains there might not be much left.

P.S. Once a system gets as battered as Florence is right now, the chance of regeneration does decrease - the old "a perfectly spinning top no longer spins true once it's bumped" law of physics. My guess if it's lowered to a TS at 11 (probably) they will likewise start to consider lowering regeneration by the day shift, if the weakening trend continues. The models have not done very well with Florence...

Note that Florence is over some relatively low heat content water right now. There's a dramatic increase in heat content west of 52W.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well I was finally stirred out of my summer long tropics hibernation thanks to Gordon lol. Now watching the tropics wth much interest. Anyway with Florence being downgraded to a storm and obviously much much weaker what do the steering currents look like for this as long as it stays weak? Is this a time where strong ridge plus weak storm equals west or south of west for longer period of time? Did the models show this weakening phase occurIng tonight?

[NDG]

The good news is the fairly rapid east to west progression of cold fronts and probably why the models are showing a looping recurve, though if the shear remains there might not be much left.

P.S. Once a system gets as battered as Florence is right now, the chance of regeneration does decrease - the old "a perfectly spinning top no longer spins true once it's bumped" law of physics. My guess if it's lowered to a TS at 11 (probably) they will likewise start to consider lowering regeneration by the day shift, if the weakening trend continues. The models have not done very well with Florence...

The only cold front that would take it out to sea would have to make it well out to sea as well, but not with the stout ridging pattern over the NW Atlantic/SE Canada which has been the pattern for weeks now, and overall is forecasted not to go anywhere in the next 7-10 day range.

[edu2703]

[Bocadude85]

So far through 36hrs the 0Z GFS is a tad southwest of the 18z, definitely appears to have a wsw movement this run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

So far through 36hrs the 0Z GFS is a tad southwest, definitely appears to have a wsw movement this run.

Been the theme all day

[lando]

Further SW through 66 at 25.1 N 57.1 W, but begins NW turn at 72 hrs

[AxaltaRacing24]

trend

[Highteeld]

0z ---> 0z GFS trend for Monday 0z