ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
The 0zGFS is well SW of the 18z at 72 hrs, hope for no more sw shifts
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Ridging is weak through 72, but starts filling in after that.. trying to figure out how to attach images, anyone can explain the easy way?
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AxaltaRacing24
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HurricaneEric
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Hour 96 on the 00z GFS:
Still a decent SW shift and the ridge is a tad stronger.
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Still a decent SW shift and the ridge is a tad stronger.
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Irene '99, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Irma '17 (storms I remember my area getting hurricane force winds/gusts).
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
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AxaltaRacing24
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HurricaneEric
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
At hr 114, 00z GFS still with a slight SW shift. Good for Bermuda, probably bad for some mid-Atlantic or NE states.
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Irene '99, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Irma '17 (storms I remember my area getting hurricane force winds/gusts).
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
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floridasun78
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AxaltaRacing24
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
lando wrote:
ridge building at 96 but looks like different angle
Use imgur
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Ridge is strong but GFS is having Flo move along the western edge, safely off NC and curving at 144 so far
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Really? The CMC is flat out parking the storm right on the NC coast for at least 3 days?
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drewschmaltz
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
BobHarlem wrote:Really? The CMC is flat out parking the storm right on the NC coast for at least 3 days?
Is there a possibility that ridge parks itself a little closer to the shore and we have Harvey part deux? Or, is there something preventing the ridge from getting closer to shore during that timeframe.
It looks like that setup would be very wet.
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I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. PLEASE CONSULT SOMEONE WHO DOES. START WITH THE NHC. ALL POSTS ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Here comes the loop
Last edited by AxaltaRacing24 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Bocadude85
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WilmingtonSandbar
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
BobHarlem wrote:Really? The CMC is flat out parking the storm right on the NC coast for at least 3 days?
Not only that, it backs up SW down the coast, from the Outer Banks down to almost Myrtle Beach!
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:BobHarlem wrote:Really? The CMC is flat out parking the storm right on the NC coast for at least 3 days?
Not only that, it backs up SW down the coast, from the Outer Banks down to almost Myrtle Beach!
Very interesting but devastating scenario that the CMC is putting on the table.
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
West shifts aside, I am not liking this recent stalling that the models have been showing.
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