ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Winds picking up a little bit.

URNT15 KNHC 261300
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 23 20180526
125000 1953N 08340W 9248 00755 0082 +207 +193 197030 031 024 000 00
125030 1954N 08340W 9250 00752 0080 +208 +196 194031 031 025 001 00
125100 1956N 08340W 9248 00754 0079 +212 +191 190031 031 025 000 00
125130 1958N 08340W 9248 00752 0079 +213 +191 190030 031 024 000 00
125200 2000N 08340W 9249 00751 0078 +215 +187 193030 031 021 001 00
125230 2002N 08340W 9249 00752 0079 +214 +189 194031 032 021 001 00
125300 2004N 08340W 9250 00751 0079 +213 +189 196031 032 022 001 03
125330 2005N 08340W 9246 00755 0077 +215 +184 195031 031 023 000 00
125400 2007N 08340W 9250 00749 0076 +215 +182 194031 031 023 000 00
125430 2009N 08340W 9248 00751 0076 +215 +181 193031 031 024 000 00
125500 2011N 08340W 9249 00750 0076 +215 +181 194032 033 025 000 00
125530 2013N 08340W 9249 00750 0076 +214 +184 194033 033 024 001 00
125600 2015N 08340W 9250 00747 0075 +213 +189 194033 033 025 001 00
125630 2017N 08340W 9245 00751 0075 +210 +194 194034 034 026 002 00
125700 2019N 08340W 9253 00745 0081 +202 +200 189036 037 023 018 03
125730 2020N 08340W 9244 00754 0084 +196 //// 188035 036 025 017 01
125800 2022N 08340W 9252 00745 0076 +204 +200 189033 035 023 002 01
125830 2024N 08340W 9245 00750 0079 +204 +200 185033 035 039 013 03
125900 2026N 08340W 9246 00754 //// +202 //// 186027 032 024 003 01
125930 2028N 08340W 9249 00749 0076 +205 +202 185030 031 020 001 01

[cycloneye]

[johngaltfla]

The best analog storm I can find for Alberto is Tropical Storm Arlene (2005). Track and potential intensity are nearly identical.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Arlene_(2005)

That was not a fun year. Hopefully not an omen.

[caneman]

Is that the center south of the Western tip of Cuba moving NE? If so seems quite a bit to the right (east) of the NHC track and the model consensus:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

NHC track now on the west side of guidance the next 48 hrs. Important benchmark is 85W. Does the center track now closer to 84W at least up to latitude 27N. If so, that puts a chunk of FL west coast close enough for tropical storms conditions. Although given present structure Alberto would have to stregthen from where it is now.

Agree and that has been my thinking that it would get to 84

[wxman57]

Gotcha, kind of like Joe B with his gig.

Ack! I've been compared to JB!

[TheAustinMan]

Here's the recon flight in context of the storm's appearance on visible imagery.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Overnight and morning model runs are weaker. Good thing. Hope the trends continue.

[Christiana]

Although the operational runs shifted a little east overnight, the ensembles shifted decidedly west, taking the center not far from the mouth of the Mississippi before turning north to the SE MS coast Monday evening. I would go with the ensembles rather than any track shift into Alabama or the FL Panhandle. In fact, I AM going with the ensembles on my 9am advisory. Nudged the track farther NW, closer to SE LA prior to the turn north.

Thank you for your always clear and concise posts. For someone such as myself, an absolute novice, I appreciate knowing that it is important to pay attention until the NHC gives my area the all clear. Until that time there is more than one scenario that can play out. The operational models have spawned many schools of thought in here.... it can be very confusing.

[caneman]

Although the operational runs shifted a little east overnight, the ensembles shifted decidedly west, taking the center not far from the mouth of the Mississippi before turning north to the SE MS coast Monday evening. I would go with the ensembles rather than any track shift into Alabama or the FL Panhandle. In fact, I AM going with the ensembles on my 9am advisory. Nudged the track farther NW, closer to SE LA prior to the turn north.

My biggest concern about that is if the center keeps moving east of the NHC forecast like it did overnight, the NHC's initial position of the storm have shifted east almost every advisory since it started.

Agree. While the end result or landfall may have remained unchanged, it looks like the next 48 hours puts us on the west coast within about 80 miles. Big difference from the initial forecast of 180 miles away

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261310
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 24 20180526
130000 2030N 08340W 9249 00746 0074 +208 +199 180030 032 018 005 00
130030 2032N 08340W 9251 00743 0077 +203 +203 189037 038 026 014 00
130100 2033N 08340W 9242 00755 0082 +199 +199 178034 038 028 030 00
130130 2035N 08340W 9252 00741 0081 +197 +197 185035 036 037 034 00
130200 2037N 08340W 9248 00746 0084 +193 +193 184039 040 042 031 00
130230 2039N 08340W 9245 00747 0083 +193 +193 187040 040 045 023 00
130300 2041N 08340W 9242 00750 0075 +203 +203 175039 043 041 019 00
130330 2043N 08340W 9255 00744 //// +205 //// 177036 038 033 008 01
130400 2045N 08340W 9249 00745 //// +207 //// 175034 035 032 001 01
130430 2047N 08340W 9249 00746 //// +210 //// 178035 035 025 001 01
130500 2049N 08340W 9250 00744 0070 +214 +207 179034 035 025 001 00
130530 2050N 08340W 9246 00747 0070 +214 +206 179033 033 025 002 00
130600 2052N 08340W 9249 00744 0068 +215 +205 178033 034 024 000 00
130630 2054N 08340W 9248 00744 0068 +215 +204 180033 033 025 000 00
130700 2056N 08340W 9249 00744 0069 +215 +205 181034 034 025 001 00
130730 2058N 08340W 9248 00745 0069 +213 +204 179033 034 023 001 00
130800 2100N 08340W 9249 00744 0069 +215 +199 179033 034 026 000 00
130830 2102N 08340W 9250 00743 0069 +214 +198 180034 034 025 000 00
130900 2104N 08340W 9246 00746 0069 +210 +201 180035 035 024 002 03
130930 2106N 08340W 9250 00741 0068 +213 +197 182035 036 025 000 00
$$

[slamdaddy]

Noticed TWC have deployed their troops from Dauphin Island, AL east to Panama City, Fla.

[cycloneye]

Winds are picking up as plane flies thru the east of the low center that is at 1004 mbs. Those are legit readings,not contaminated.

130200 2037N 08340W 9248 00746 0084 +193 +193 184039 040 042 031 00
130230 2039N 08340W 9245 00747 0083 +193 +193 187040 040 045 023 00

[Blown Away]

Models moving towards climatology. Wouldn’t surprise me if a weaker TS/TD between Panama City/Cedar Key is final track. JMHO

[johngaltfla]

Noticed TWC have deployed their troops from Dauphin Island, AL east to Panama City, Fla.

Great, just great. Landfall on Siesta Key all but guaranteed now. (just kidding)

[cycloneye]

[johngaltfla]

Winds are picking up as plane flies thru the east of the low center that is at 1004 mbs. Those are legit readings,not contaminated.

130200 2037N 08340W 9248 00746 0084 +193 +193 184039 040 042 031 00
130230 2039N 08340W 9245 00747 0083 +193 +193 187040 040 045 023 00

I figured this would sort of happen. While I am not -removed- or providing any type of forecast, I am guessing that it will develop more tropical storm characteristics in the next 8-12 hours as it moves NNE-NE and start to intensify. Gulf waters are 104 octane and will provide plenty of fuel as the shear declines also. By 1700 ET update, I figure we'll have or be close to a regular tropical storm.

[BobHarlem]

East shift on the early 12zs.



TVCN shifted to over Fort Walton Beach from Mobile Bay in the last run..

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261320
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 25 20180526
131000 2107N 08340W 9248 00743 0068 +211 +197 183035 036 024 002 03
131030 2109N 08340W 9248 00741 0066 +210 +197 182033 035 /// /// 03
131100 2110N 08342W 9248 00745 0068 +211 +196 185031 032 020 002 03
131130 2110N 08343W 9248 00744 0067 +210 +197 183031 032 023 000 00
131200 2109N 08345W 9250 00740 0067 +210 +197 182030 031 020 001 00
131230 2109N 08347W 9249 00743 0068 +208 +199 183030 031 021 001 00
131300 2109N 08348W 9249 00741 0068 +207 +198 183029 029 022 002 01
131330 2109N 08350W 9248 00741 0067 +207 +200 184029 030 022 001 00
131400 2108N 08351W 9250 00739 0066 +209 +199 184032 033 022 001 00
131430 2108N 08353W 9251 00738 0066 +208 +198 183030 032 023 001 00
131500 2108N 08355W 9249 00738 0066 +206 +205 179031 031 022 003 00
131530 2108N 08356W 9248 00740 0072 +204 +204 178030 033 031 029 00
131600 2107N 08358W 9248 00735 0072 +199 +199 184031 033 029 035 00
131630 2107N 08359W 9253 00735 0069 +205 +205 189028 033 027 009 00
131700 2107N 08401W 9248 00740 0064 +203 //// 192030 030 025 004 01
131730 2107N 08403W 9250 00737 0064 +208 +199 192030 031 024 004 00
131800 2106N 08404W 9248 00739 0063 +210 +196 193029 029 024 004 00
131830 2106N 08406W 9248 00739 0064 +210 +194 195028 029 022 005 00
131900 2106N 08407W 9251 00735 0062 +211 +184 196026 027 022 002 00
131930 2106N 08409W 9246 00739 0061 +215 +177 195025 026 022 002 00
$$

[tropicwatch]

Latest sat images looks like the center is trying to move under convection.

[cycloneye]