ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Hurricaneman]

The one thing of interest on the 0zGFS is the ridge over the northern plains and Michigan, could that be influential in Florence’s path

[Steve]

German model rides just inside the coast from Southern NC up to NJ and it looks like cat 3 then 2 on that resolution the whole way. Obviously on that track unless it was to loop like some of the other models do, NY, CT, RI and MA look liked they’d all get hurricane conditions. Definitely a high dollar/bang for the buck track for a 2/3. That looks like a several billion dollar storm. So far I think I like what the Canadian is showing, but all scenarios are obviously on the table.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90700&fh=6

[Hurricaneman]

West shifts aside, I am not liking this recent stalling that the models have been showing.

I have a feeling the Models are having problems resolving the ridge, when we get upper data from upper air recon we will have more accuracy in the models

[lando]

anyone got graph of UKie?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Coming back for round 2 as it drifts south.

[Bocadude85]

West shifts aside, I am not liking this recent stalling that the models have been showing.

I have a feeling the Models are having problems resolving the ridge, when we get upper data from upper air recon we will have more accuracy in the models

I agree, upper air data will definitely help. I would think the southwest shifts have to be about over, I don’t see anyway this drives much farther west unless the models have the ridge placement and orientation wrong.

[bamajammer4eva]

Whats the low that drops from the north and blows up east of Flo? Subtropical? Looks like it would pull Flo along with it??

[hurricaneCW]

Models go bonkers after 5 days, the westerlies are non-existent and some kind of stall or loop is looking more likely.

If that happens 100-150 west of the current Gfs, it would be a disaster.

[BobHarlem]

0z UKMET has shifted south, ends at 29N and 75W

29.6N 75.0W, the initialized position is actually north of the 11PM official position, so if that's off it's in the wrong direction.

[Hurricaneman]

Coming back for round 2 as it drifts south.

I’m hoping this is not that much of a forecasting headache with all models performing some sort of loop and who knows how big the loop will be or if there ends up being one

[SouthFLTropics]

Here comes the trough on the GFS at 228 hours to hopefully sweep Flo away and take her little sister down in the Caribbean with her.

[Bocadude85]

0z UKMET has shifted south, ends at 29N and 75W

29.6N 75.0W, the initialized position is actually north of the 11PM official position, so if that's off it's in the wrong direction.

Interesting, so if the initialization was north of the 11pm position then theoretically this could have have ended up a touch farther south.

[BobHarlem]

@RyanMaue

Is this even serious? A southward moving Category 5 ... between 35°-40°N latitude. And folks think the GFS is "doing great" ... Trash.
 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1037924802747609089

[AtlanticWind]

Don't think the GFS is right,but if did verify imagine the ACE

[lando]

UK chart anyone?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Reminds me of last year with Irma, showed a <880mb hurricane recurving hundreds of miles away from Florida, while the ECMWF was significantly closer to the mark.

[Bocadude85]

UK chart anyone?

I don’t have the chart but you can see it plotted here, click storm 06

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

[chaser1]

Agreed. The deck of cards tends to get re-shuffled following a changed initialization. Of course now it'll equally be interesting to see just how fast the storms near-term westward motion will be, especially as compared to where prior (GFS, EURO, etc) global models eventually ceased Florences' westward motion as a resulting of the storm feeling the expected weakness in the W. Atlantic ridge. We're all pretty sure there will be a weakness in the ridge in the few days to come. Problem is.... what if there's no storm quite there to turn more poleward in response to it? Timing is SO everything.

Of course if there is no storm toride around the edge of the ridge, isn't all this discussion/analysis (and in some case hand wringing) for naught? I mean yes, a weaker storm won't feel the ridge, etc. but if its so weak it won't matter where it goes really, unless it generates a lot of inland flooding as a tropical low.

I think he doesn't mean the storm missing the trough because of being weak, but because of taking a different/faster track (west)

Exactly. Assuming a faster (or slower) forward motion, it is not unreasonable to assume that Florence may have moved past that anticipated time frame where a break in the ridge might have turned the storm to the northwest.

[chaser1]

UK chart anyone?

I don’t have the chart but you can see it plotted here, click storm 06

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

0Z still remaining south of other globals. Anyone have the UK 12Z run to compare it too?

[Steve]

UK chart anyone?

I don’t have the chart but you can see it plotted here, click storm 06

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

0Z still remaining south of other globals. Anyone have the UK 12Z run to compare it too?

It’s back in the thread a few pages as well as its ensembles