ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

95 KT with the 12z best track

No data yet to support that high, I think recon still supports a solid 85, maybe at a real push 90 but 85kts is fine thus far.

Dvorak running way too high with Michael right now.

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon and satellite seem to show this thing a pretty good bit west of the forecast track so far.

[supercane4867]

12z best track is up to 95kt. I won't be surprised if recon confirm that intensity in the upcoming pass.

[ColdMiser123]

95 KT with the 12z best track

No data yet to support that high, I think recon still supports a solid 85, maybe at a real push 90 but 85kts is fine thus far.

Dvorak running way too high with Michael right now.

Think it is noteworthy that FL wind was already at a Category 3 threshold in the southeast eyewall. Likely even higher wind to be found in the NE to SW pass.

[SconnieCane]

Quite a large storm already, too. Looks to be pushing Katrina (not quite Ike) levels in terms of CDO diameter. That's not good for surge, although it won't peak as strong as Katrina did it may be strengthening or at least steady-state at landfall.

[tropicwatch]

My parents are being a little silly and want to stay. Unfortunately if they do I will have to stay in town too. If so, I will give updates as long as I can.

[MGC]

Hurricane Michael is right on track to make it to a major later today....as long as he don't take a huge gulp of dry air that is just off to its west. That dry air has not been a major problem for the hurricane. I expect steady intensification today and tonight....might level off at the hurricane nears the coast.

Lots of questions about surge. If you live near the coast and your elevation is below 25 feet, I'd suggest a road trip. It is going to be a mess where Michael makes landfall. The coast where Michael hits will be destroyed. Moving water is very powerful, expect all structures except concrete ones to be destroyed along the beach. If you stay along the beach you will likely die. Make sure that you write your SSN on you so your body can be identified. After a couple of days post landfall thing will get very pungent as all the dead creatures start to decompose. It stunk bad for days after Katrina.....MGC

[KWT]

12z best track is up to 95kt. I won't be surprised if recon confirm that intensity in the upcoming pass.

I think best track is wrong frankly based on current findings from recon, we have two plane s in there and neither really support above 85kts at the moment IMO. It's still strengthening so maybe it will get there by the next advisory, but it's not there yet based purely on recon.

[NotoSans]

12Z best track intensity revised down to 90KT. Looks alright to me.

[KWT]

12Z best track intensity revised down to 90KT. Looks alright to me.

Even 90kts is a little on the high side IMI, but it's more reasonable than 95kts for sure and it wouldn't take much strengthening for that to be true.

Recon going for another pass shortly so let's see what this run shows.

[northjaxpro]

Lots of questions about surge. If you live near the coast and your elevation is below 25 feet, I'd suggest a road trip. It is going to be a mess where Michael makes landfall. The coast where Michael hits will be destroyed. Moving water is very powerful, expect all structures except concrete ones to be destroyed along the beach. If you stay along the beach you will likely die. Make sure that you write your SSN on you so your body can be identified. After a couple of days post landfall thing will get very pungent as all the dead creatures start to decompose. It stunk bad for days after Katrina.....MGC

A grim. but sobering post MGC. This is reality though. !You hate to think about stuff like this, but with events like this with Michael bearing down on the region, we have to keep this in the forefront of our mind unfortunately.

[FLpanhandle91]

Dry air slot seems to have made its way into Michael's southeast side.

[tolakram]

Dry air slot seems to have made its way into Michael's southeast side.

I agree. Until shear lets up I think we see slow steady strengthening.

[FLpanhandle91]

Michael's eye is going to be very large once it clears.

[Yellow Evan]

12Z best track intensity revised down to 90KT. Looks alright to me.

100 FL 90 SFMR (IIRC) makes a clear case for 90. Good call NHC.

[BobHarlem]

Seriously? Final T is 5.9 and raw is 6.7?

They'd be calling this a cat 3 if they didn't have recon based off that. Those numbers.. a 6.7 raw is high 4, pushing cat 5. The final adjusted number 5.7 is high cat 3.

I'm not sure what that means for rain/wind/surge projections. (are they on the low side, unfortunately?)

[chaser1]

My parents are being a little silly and want to stay. Unfortunately if they do I will have to stay in town too. If so, I will give updates as long as I can.

Well, hopefully you can convince them of a "plan B" in the event of imminent landfall there (and assuming that the track does not start shifting more eastward). Depending on how prone your parents are to storm surge, you might be able to jump on 231 or 331 north to I-10 and then shoot west to P'Cola if you can still get a room there. That, or even jump on Hwy 65 north if landfall looks to be right at or a little left of you. Just don't want to cut it too close though.

[KWT]

12Z best track intensity revised down to 90KT. Looks alright to me.

100 FL 90 SFMR (IIRC) makes a clear case for 90. Good call NHC.

Yeah there was a 89kts report.

System just can't close that eyewall off, given the type of syste., Should be limited to steady strengthening, though I suspect it will still drop something close to the technical RI level, but rather than in one 9hr burst it will a steady leg down as we have seen already.

[eastcoastFL]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Awesome product.

Definitely my favorite. They have a lot of info on the site.

[tropicwatch]

My parents are being a little silly and want to stay. Unfortunately if they do I will have to stay in town too. If so, I will give updates as long as I can.

Well, hopefully you can convince them of a "plan B" in the event of imminent landfall there (and assuming that the track does not start shifting more eastward). Depending on how prone your parents are to storm surge, you might be able to jump on 231 or 331 north to I-10 and then shoot west to P'Cola if you can still get a room there. That, or even jump on Hwy 65 north if landfall looks to be right at or a little left of you. Just don't want to cut it too close though.

Tried to pm you but all of my pm's just sit in my outbox for some reason.