ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Second pass thru low center shortly.

[NotSparta]

SFMR has unflagged 45kt wind, but with 30mm/hr rain rate. Doesn't look that trustworthy to me

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261330
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 26 20180526
132000 2105N 08410W 9250 00734 0060 +215 +181 193025 025 021 001 00
132030 2105N 08412W 9250 00734 0060 +216 +177 194024 025 018 002 00
132100 2105N 08414W 9250 00735 0059 +215 +179 193022 024 017 001 00
132130 2105N 08415W 9246 00737 0058 +215 +189 193021 022 015 001 00
132200 2104N 08417W 9250 00734 0057 +215 +190 189021 021 018 000 03
132230 2104N 08418W 9245 00737 0058 +215 +195 188022 022 016 000 00
132300 2104N 08420W 9249 00740 0065 +215 +197 185023 023 017 001 00
132330 2104N 08422W 9248 00743 0067 +212 +197 184021 022 017 001 00
132400 2103N 08423W 9249 00743 0068 +210 +203 188020 020 016 002 00
132430 2103N 08425W 9249 00743 //// +206 //// 190019 020 018 003 05
132500 2103N 08427W 9250 00741 0068 +209 +207 190018 018 019 003 00
132530 2103N 08428W 9248 00743 0067 +206 +206 189016 017 018 003 01
132600 2102N 08430W 9247 00743 0066 +210 +206 180015 016 014 004 03
132630 2102N 08431W 9252 00738 0067 +209 +206 178013 015 017 004 00
132700 2102N 08433W 9245 00744 0069 +206 //// 170012 013 024 014 01
132730 2102N 08435W 9252 00737 0072 +206 +206 164012 015 032 029 03
132800 2101N 08436W 9251 00730 0071 +195 +195 144010 012 053 059 03
132830 2101N 08438W 9249 00738 0073 +195 +195 138007 012 053 056 00
132900 2101N 08440W 9252 00735 0067 +203 +197 311001 005 025 017 00
132930 2101N 08442W 9251 00734 0061 +217 +196 189002 004 010 003 00
$$

[MississippiWx]

Although the operational runs shifted a little east overnight, the ensembles shifted decidedly west, taking the center not far from the mouth of the Mississippi before turning north to the SE MS coast Monday evening. I would go with the ensembles rather than any track shift into Alabama or the FL Panhandle. In fact, I AM going with the ensembles on my 9am advisory. Nudged the track farther NW, closer to SE LA prior to the turn north.

Most of the 6z operational runs moved east this morning. Still feeling the ensembles are the way to go?

[tarheelprogrammer]

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1000361163954278401?s=19

Ouch that is a lot of dry air. Could it really strengthen much? Looks like a large lid over strengthening.

[N2FSU]

East shift on the early 12zs.



TVCN shifted to over Fort Walton Beach from Mobile Bay in the last run..

about a 70 mi east shift

[cycloneye]

[Dean4Storms]

A 53kt reading as they went into the center again on the SFMR but think it is rain contaminated.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261340
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 27 20180526
133000 2100N 08443W 9249 00740 0063 +214 +197 286003 005 010 003 03
133030 2100N 08445W 9248 00740 0063 +213 +197 294008 009 010 003 03
133100 2100N 08446W 9249 00739 0064 +211 +196 300009 009 009 003 00
133130 2100N 08448W 9248 00740 0064 +212 +196 295010 011 007 002 00
133200 2059N 08450W 9248 00740 0064 +211 +196 292011 012 008 003 00
133230 2059N 08451W 9247 00740 0064 +210 +192 286011 012 008 002 00
133300 2100N 08453W 9249 00740 0066 +210 +189 285010 010 009 003 00
133330 2100N 08454W 9248 00743 0067 +209 +188 287009 010 011 003 00
133400 2101N 08456W 9249 00740 0066 +205 +191 289008 009 006 001 03
133430 2101N 08457W 9246 00743 0066 +205 +187 285011 013 /// /// 03
133500 2059N 08457W 9248 00741 0067 +205 +188 279014 014 /// /// 03
133530 2059N 08456W 9245 00743 0067 +209 +187 274014 014 008 001 00
133600 2059N 08454W 9250 00739 0068 +208 +188 272014 015 008 002 00
133630 2059N 08452W 9249 00741 0066 +210 +188 269014 015 009 002 00
133700 2059N 08450W 9248 00741 0065 +210 +191 273015 015 008 002 00
133730 2100N 08448W 9249 00740 0066 +210 +194 278013 014 009 002 00
133800 2100N 08447W 9250 00740 0065 +213 +194 285011 012 010 002 03
133830 2101N 08445W 9248 00741 0065 +210 +196 284010 011 006 001 00
133900 2102N 08444W 9249 00739 0064 +212 +194 273011 012 010 002 00
133930 2103N 08442W 9248 00740 0063 +217 +191 249008 010 010 001 00
$$

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261350
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 28 20180526
134000 2104N 08441W 9245 00743 0062 +214 +190 234008 010 007 001 00
134030 2105N 08439W 9253 00735 0064 +210 +193 203008 009 008 000 00
134100 2106N 08438W 9247 00739 0062 +213 +184 177010 013 009 001 00
134130 2107N 08437W 9246 00741 0064 +213 +197 177011 013 011 000 00
134200 2108N 08436W 9250 00739 //// +199 //// 178011 015 012 003 05
134230 2110N 08436W 9248 00739 0062 +210 +198 177009 010 /// /// 03
134300 2110N 08437W 9247 00743 0064 +213 +194 171009 009 /// /// 03
134330 2108N 08438W 9248 00740 0065 +208 +194 171007 008 009 002 00
134400 2107N 08439W 9249 00739 0064 +207 +188 165006 008 007 001 03
134430 2106N 08441W 9245 00741 0064 +209 +187 144001 004 010 003 00
134500 2105N 08442W 9248 00739 0063 +213 +190 334002 003 011 003 00
134530 2104N 08443W 9249 00738 0062 +216 +192 300009 013 007 001 03
134600 2103N 08444W 9249 00738 0063 +211 +195 306012 013 010 002 00
134630 2101N 08445W 9249 00739 0063 +214 +193 300013 014 009 002 00
134700 2100N 08446W 9249 00740 0065 +210 +195 294014 014 009 002 00
134730 2059N 08448W 9249 00740 0066 +210 +191 291015 015 010 002 00
134800 2058N 08449W 9248 00741 0066 +210 +190 289014 014 009 002 00
134830 2057N 08450W 9248 00743 0066 +212 +189 291013 014 007 001 00
134900 2056N 08451W 9250 00739 0066 +213 +189 287013 013 010 002 00
134930 2055N 08452W 9249 00741 0067 +214 +186 278014 015 012 002 00

[Dean4Storms]

I saw a flagged 53kt SMFR.

[cycloneye]

[Dean4Storms]

I saw a flagged 53kt SFMR.

[GCANE]

Looks like recon hit the center right under the convection.

[Evil Jeremy]

Per recon, Alberto is as far east as the NHC forecast it to be in 18 hours from now. More short term East shifts. Looks like the southern LLC many of us thought was dying woke up, started racing off to the NNE. It's still moving with a decent eastern component. Alberto has been consistently east of forecast.

[cycloneye]

That SFMR reading was not legit.

[MississippiWx]

TVCN shifted another 50 or so miles east for the 12z package. I’d expect a shift east to the Alabama/FL border upcoming at the 11AM NHC update.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261400
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 29 20180526
135000 2054N 08453W 9248 00743 0067 +214 +182 280014 015 011 001 03
135030 2052N 08454W 9250 00743 0069 +213 +178 276015 016 008 001 00
135100 2051N 08455W 9248 00744 0069 +211 +180 271017 019 009 003 00
135130 2050N 08457W 9250 00741 0069 +212 +183 269018 019 010 002 03
135200 2049N 08458W 9249 00743 0069 +212 +186 268017 017 007 001 00
135230 2048N 08459W 9245 00749 0070 +208 +189 269016 017 011 002 00
135300 2047N 08500W 9251 00741 0070 +209 +189 267016 017 008 001 00
135330 2046N 08501W 9245 00749 0072 +206 +190 272015 016 008 002 00
135400 2045N 08502W 9250 00744 0071 +211 +186 262015 015 010 003 00
135430 2044N 08503W 9249 00746 0072 +213 +185 262014 015 014 003 00
135500 2043N 08504W 9249 00746 0072 +213 +185 259013 015 014 003 03
135530 2042N 08505W 9250 00746 0072 +214 +181 260013 014 008 001 00
135600 2041N 08506W 9250 00745 0072 +213 +180 260014 015 007 001 03
135630 2040N 08508W 9249 00745 0072 +211 +181 259013 014 010 003 00
135700 2038N 08509W 9250 00745 0072 +208 +183 265013 014 009 002 00
135730 2037N 08510W 9247 00747 0073 +205 +187 263013 015 006 001 00
135800 2036N 08511W 9248 00746 0071 +205 +187 261010 015 008 001 00
135830 2035N 08512W 9260 00740 0076 +201 +192 288013 014 006 002 01
135900 2034N 08513W 9244 00751 0074 +205 +182 284013 014 009 002 00
135930 2033N 08514W 9249 00745 0075 +204 +183 280013 013 009 001 00