ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

So is Michael strengthening ? Or is he further becoming more and more disheveled ?

[tolakram]

AF

[Kazmit]

So is Michael strengthening ? Or is he further becoming more and more disheveled ?

Slow, steady strengthening atm.

[KWT]

So is Michael strengthening ? Or is he further becoming more and more disheveled ?

Strengthened proably 90kts now, but probably steady state right now based on the dry air intrusion into the core. Michael has been pretty good at mixing out those intrusions so I'm sure it will start to strengthen

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049645305250099201

[meriland29]

As per microwave, he was unhappy overnight, now just getting beet red with anger..

[NDG]

Getting close to Major Hurricane, 94 knots at surface from dropsonde, 135 mph winds around 1200' above the surface.

[chaser1]

Pressure is down from 970 to 966 this pass so it's actually dropping again. Dropsonde measured 117kts just above the surface as well in the SE quad.

SE quad?? Oh jeez. I'm assuming they'll sample the N.E. quad next?

They flew into the NE quad and had FL winds of 105kts or so in that area but so far the strongest winds at the surface appear to be in the SE or E quad. This is solid 105mph right now IMO and this afternoon will be a cat 3 if it can get the eyewall closed off to stop the dry air intrusions.

Regardless with the newer towers firing off on the N.E. quad, that plane would be doing some shaking and baking right now. With the overall CDO expanding as such and assuming less west of north motion probably commencing now, I'm not seeing the dryer air intrusion remaining an issue too much longer. In fact, one more positive (as far as storm mechanics) that might occur with it beginning to bend to the N.E. will be to move more in tandem with the decreasing SW shear and should allow itself to better insulate itself from entraining the dryer air to its west.

[KWT]

Getting close to Major Hurricane, 94 knots at surface from dropsonde, 135 mph winds around 1200' above the surface.

https://i.imgur.com/IZeYHfH.png

Impressive dropsonde there, clearly some stronger winds aloft as well which isn't too surprising given how vigarous the convection has been today.

I think they will still go with 90, but yeah they could even go 95kts with that.

[tolakram]

[NDG]

105 knots on the NOAA recon penetrating the eye right now.

105 knots
(~ 120.8 mph)

Edit: at flight level to make it clear.

[Evil Jeremy]

As per microwave, he was unhappy overnight, now just getting beet red with anger..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif[

Looks to me as if the westward motion has stopped in recent hours. Is this a more reliable reference for movement than the recent recon fixes, which don't generally take into account the entire LLC, just single points based on flight pattern?

[tropicwatch]

105 knots on the NOAA recon penetrating the eye right now.

105 knots
(~ 120.8 mph)

FL

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049664745274523649

[chaser1]

As per microwave, he was unhappy overnight, now just getting beet red with anger..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif[

Looks to me as if the westward motion has stopped in recent hours. Is this a more reliable reference for movement than the recent recon fixes, which don't generally take into account the entire LLC, just single points based on flight pattern?

Looking at various Sat resolutions, i'd agree

[BobHarlem]

As per microwave, he was unhappy overnight, now just getting beet red with anger..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif[

Looks to me as if the westward motion has stopped in recent hours. Is this a more reliable reference for movement than the recent recon fixes, which don't generally take into account the entire LLC, just single points based on flight pattern?

Looking at various Sat resolutions, i'd agree

The only thing I really can tell from there is the eye may be shrinking?

[eastcoastFL]

Appears to be a little NNE wobble going on the last few frames

[otowntiger]

105 knots on the NOAA recon penetrating the eye right now.

105 knots
(~ 120.8 mph)

FL

So 105 knotts flight level = about 105 mph at the surface? I think I recall somone saying that a rough way to translate what flight level would equate to at the surface would be just change the units to mph at the surface for the average corelation. Is that right?

[dukeblue219]

105 knots on the NOAA recon penetrating the eye right now.

105 knots
(~ 120.8 mph)

FL

So 105 knotts flight level = about 105 mph at the surface? I think I recall somone saying that a rough way to translate what flight level would equate to at the surface would be just change the units to mph at the surface for the average corelation. Is that right?

Yeah, it's a good ballpark way to do it.

[TheAustinMan]

So 105 knotts flight level = about 105 mph at the surface? I think I recall somone saying that a rough way to translate what flight level would equate to at the surface would be just change the units to mph at the surface for the average corelation. Is that right?

That's a pretty nifty way to do it! Usually the convention is that when a plane is flying at the 700mb height, multiply the flight-level winds in knots by 0.90 to get the surface wind knots. At the 850mb height, multiply the flight-level winds in knots by 0.85 to get the surface wind in knots. Just so happens that changing knots to mph results in a coefficient of 0.87, which is pretty close to those other rules of thumb.

Of course, now that we have SFMR, those tend to be more reliable than rule-of-thumb extrapolations from flight conditions.