CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

EC follows CMC. No major impacts at all

This is a $%%!^@*$%$# joke in 2018 that we have this much divergence less than 48 hours from major impacts

The Euro has this going NW starting now.

[Sciencerocks]

EC follows CMC. No major impacts at all

This is a $%%!^@*$%$# joke in 2018 that we have this much divergence less than 48 hours from major impacts

Yep, I remember watching the models back in 2004-2005 and I don't remember them being this bad. Something seriously want wrong. IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Where do we go from here? There has to be a solution?

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro through 72 hours:



Note how it slows down between 48-72 hours.

[NotoSans]

Such a divergence actually occurred for Typhoon Hato in the WPAC last year. The result was a big ECMWF bust because the model severely underestimated the intensity of storm.

Not sure if intensity is also one of the key factors this time, but it should be noted that GFS has a much stronger vortex than ECMWF.

[Alyono]

note that the EC and CMC had dog #$*! initializations of Lane

[Kingarabian]

The Euro legit takes this between a NW/WNW movement right now, while Lane is currently stairstepping and smoothing out in a more NW/NNW motion:

[Sciencerocks]

Such a divergence actually occurred for Typhoon Hato in the WPAC last year. The result was a big ECMWF bust because the model severely underestimated the intensity of storm.

Not sure if intensity is also one of the key factors this time, but it should be noted that GFS has a much stronger vortex than ECMWF.

Based on current trends I'd guess that it is shearing it apart too fast and the solution could be closer to the gfs.

[Alyono]

for the ec to verify, we need an exposed center no later than tomorrow morning, if not today

[Kingarabian]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.3mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.4 6.4

[Kingarabian]

The 00z GFS and 00z Euro have almost the exact same steering setup...

[Aric Dunn]

Again I would stick with the dynamical models in this case... clearly the GFS has more of an interaction with the big island ( turbulent lee side troughing) than the EURO does. maybe its an algorithm issue maybe not.

the subtle nuances of such small scale interactions are at least theoretically modeled better, by design, with the HWRF and other dynamical models. Considering the short time frame we are talking about and the huge difference between the global models. it is only prudent to accept that the gfs/euro cant do the dirty deed in this case.

[Kingarabian]

Again I would stick with the dynamical models in this case... clearly the GFS has more of an interaction with the big island ( turbulent lee side troughing) than the EURO does. maybe its an algorithm issue maybe not.

the subtle nuances of such small scale interactions are at least theoretically modeled better, by design, with the HWRF and other dynamical models. Considering the short time frame we are talking about and the huge difference between the global models. it is only prudent to accept that the gfs/euro cant do the dirty deed in this case.

I know CPHC are the pros but I'm afraid this might compel them to shift the track away from the islands more than they should.

[Alyono]

Again I would stick with the dynamical models in this case... clearly the GFS has more of an interaction with the big island ( turbulent lee side troughing) than the EURO does. maybe its an algorithm issue maybe not.

the subtle nuances of such small scale interactions are at least theoretically modeled better, by design, with the HWRF and other dynamical models. Considering the short time frame we are talking about and the huge difference between the global models. it is only prudent to accept that the gfs/euro cant do the dirty deed in this case.

I know CPHC are the pros but I'm afraid this might compel them to shift the track away from the islands more than they should.

their TCDs do not make it seem like they hug the EC like some here do

[NotoSans]

As a side note, the latest Euro run brings LANE into the western pacific as a tropical storm.

[Kingarabian]

So this means the GFS has to shift @ 06z right? Like how much longer do we have before Lane is going one way and the models are going another?

[Kingarabian]

Ballard is skeptical:

 https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1032519697508388864

[AJC3]

I certainly don't envy the CPHC here. I'll throw this thought out there for consideration, and it's a point I've made for other systems...

One thing to look for with Lane as the environmental wind shear increases is for small downshear (right of track) wobbles as the system tries to maintain vertical coherency. I've beat this point into the ground on several occasions on here, but the GFS does appear to perform superior with TC events that involve baroclinic enhancement/forcing and shear. It wouldn't surprise me if the ECM winds up with an upshear (left of track) bias with Lane's eventual forward motion. As others have already pointed out, the speed with which Lane weakens and decouples will determine the eventual track. I wouldn't expect significant leftward shifts from CPHC unless the GFS completely capitulates, which I don't see happening. YOMV.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1032526059210592256

[AJC3]

 https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1032526059210592256

That's simply horrendous this early into the event.