ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

On Emergency Response in Large-Scale Events

Post this in r/tropicalweather please, or can I post it for you?

You can repost if you want. Again, I am not claiming to be the "master of emergency services" or anything. In terms of EMS/Fire, I'm still fairly new. 3 years is nothing when many of my partners have 15-30. But if I can offer a little insight, and maybe help people down there under the threat of this thing, then that's what I'm going to do.

[Michele B]

Wow Michele b, I hope your niece is ready for this potential beast! Hopefully it doesn't strike there and also hoping for any better case scenarios to occur, but things look so ugly now. We can't take our eyes off of Florence from today onwards, it will be quite a scary time ahead to say the least.

Well, her mother (my sister) and I grew up in S. FL, so we're used to storms, we KNOW to prepare for them....so I'm sure they won't let her and her husband stay in their new house. When they first said they wanted to live "at the beach" I wanted to say DON"T DO IT!!

But what can you say? Peeps are gonna do what they're gonna do.....you can't MAKE someone live where YOU think they should!

At least they have a contingency plan (Asheville) as I said.

[NDG]

]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

I'm not really sure what this means but my guess is that it looks like the door is opening to start picking up some latitude?

It can't gain that much latitude, ridging is building to the north of it over the next few days and expanding westward.

[Rail Dawg]

On Emergency Response in Large-Scale Events

Your post is very informative. Most people I'll bet are unaware of what 911 can and cannot do.

Been chasing the big ones for 30 years and will chase this one perhaps catching the eye.

I'm thinking possible Cat 5 because Florence is crossing the warmer-than-average Gulf Stream. That is what my supplies will be predicated on anyway.

From the Saffir-Simpson wind scale:

Cat 5 "Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."

We need to Google images of Homestead, Fl after Hurricane Andrew. Almost complete destruction.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I have a question regarding hurricanes in general. I do see that she is expected to reach 150 or so at peak. I have seen some models propose 160+. My question is, i understand where a cat 5 stands, but is there any MPH limit a hurricane in general just cant achieve ?

I mean...it depends on the environment. Out in the WPAC, where there are commonly massive zones of practically zero shear, boiling SSTs, high moisture, no land, etc, you see storms sit at strong Cat 5 range for extended areas of time. In the Atlantic, to me at least, it seems a little harder to "Goldilocks" for an extended amount of time. Plus, storms have intrinsic limiting factors such as EWRCs. Like...a Promet could probably give you more specifics.

[Blinhart]

Wow Michele b, I hope your niece is ready for this potential beast! Hopefully it doesn't strike there and also hoping for any better case scenarios to occur, but things look so ugly now. We can't take our eyes off of Florence from today onwards, it will be quite a scary time ahead to say the least.

Well, her mother (my sister) and I grew up in S. FL, so we're used to storms, we KNOW to prepare for them....so I'm sure they won't let her and her husband stay in their new house. When they first said they wanted to live "at the beach" I wanted to say DON"T DO IT!!

But what can you say? Peeps are gonna do what they're gonna do.....you can't MAKE someone live where YOU think they should!

At least they have a contingency plan (Asheville) as I said.

Problem with that, the building codes in the Carolina's are nothing like that in Florida. Also a lot of these houses in the Carolina's are over 100 years old and might not survive a Cat 1/2 hurricane. You need to have your sister find out when her house was built and which Building Codes it was built to (Post Andrew Florida plans, Post Hugo Carolina plans, or before those).

[invest man]

amazing outflow so far
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

I am seeing the start of wnw movement

agree...saw it on the floater, looks like it will hit the next NHC forecast point (6z) and that would indicate a slight N of west movement. I think tomorrow 18Z it is forecast to be at 25 north, I'm looking at that as a key indicator...if it verifies...that areas south of the current "projected" landfall cone can relax a little bit more.

Please see disclaimer, I'm just an amateur...

I just observed a wnw movement and think I track it t at 24.7n 57.7w can some one confirm this or give a more accurate reading. Thanks IM

[abajan]

Two videos by people who know what they're talking about:

Mark Sudduth

Levi Cowan

[Blinhart]

Even though I disagree with a NC landfall, I know NC will have an extreme weather event and I hope they all heed the warning and instructions of their local governments.

[GeneratorPower]

We have a major storm headed for a populated area. We need to keep the thread clean for actual info related to Florence. Not appreciating coming here and seeing threads clogged up with super long posts that are NOT related to Florence. Please, be considerate and put it in a different thread. I’m not saying it’s not important just that it’s misplaced.

I disagree.

I disagree as well. It is when we have a potential dangerous storm that many people come onto the "discussion" thread for information. Many more people will see that important information on this thread than in a different thread. Whether it technically belongs here or another thread, doesn't change that fact that many more people will see that potential life saving information on this thread.

Well, clearly lots of folks are enjoying the post being here so I withdraw my complaint. Sorry for being difficult.

[Tyler Penland]

Perhaps an actual eye trying to clear out now (try number 5 or 6 now? lol)
Microwave looks like it's still headed due west to me.

[cjrciadt]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot
Says Cat 5 and 150 kt for the expectd path for the upper limit.

[Aric Dunn]

Check out that large eye starting to clear out.. major hurricane by morning.. and so far still holding around 24.5n.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

[txwatcher91]

Can we get back to talking about Florence here and not other hurricanes? For those in the Carolinas this is a pretty bad situation and there are other places to discuss theoretical storm strength and such imo.

Having said that this map with the official plots (white dots) indicates the turn has indeed begun.

[GeneratorPower]

Check out that large eye starting to clear out.. major hurricane by morning.. and so far still holding around 24n.

Are you going by best track and actual center fixes or just microwave? I’m with you, it looks like due west to me. But looks are deceiving.

[Hugo1989]

How many of you guys think Florence is going to be landed further south? I know we are just guessing on what could be happen finally but I can't buy the current projection.

[txwatcher91]

Check out that large eye starting to clear out.. major hurricane by morning.. and so far still holding around 24n.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

She is turning wnw already and right on schedule, everything is going as modeled.

[toad strangler]

How many of you guys think Florence is going to be landed further south? I know we are just guessing on what could be happen finally but I can't buy the current projection.

I’ve thought SC for days. I just think this building ridge holds a moderate surprise in the end. We shall see.

[HurricaneEric]

Can we get back to talking about Florence here and not other hurricanes? For those in the Carolinas this is a pretty bad situation and there are other places to discuss theoretical storm strength and such imo.

Having said that this map with the official plots (white dots) indicates the turn has indeed begun.

I figured that was the case. Most models were pretty spot on within 48-72hrs that this would begin its WNW movement around this time. XTRP model even has it right now as WNW. All this fuss about losing latitude and I think the lowest it got officially was 24.4N?

Anyways, I have family in Winston Salem, NC, which is a good deal inland to escape some of the highest winds/gusts, but I’m more afraid about rainfall totals and possible floods. Any pro-Met can give a rough idea of what that particular area of NC might experience (assuming models are spot on in track/intensity)?

Starting to get really worried for them.

[meriland29]

She is really gaining some strength, and fast. Most of the hurricanes I have seen that rev up this far away from the states, peter out quite a bit before landfall cause it can only sustain that sort of momentum for so long. Then again, that is past history...but it is curious.