ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

[sponger]

I sure hope this thing makes it East of Panama City. The damages will be far less.

[Agua]

Slight west shift on the new track

Maybe 400 yards.

[chaser1]

movement look to me to be N to NNE...per the last few frames.... Probably just a wobble

My thinking too. Though need to watch the greater convection whipping around the NW quad, and see if that tends to "wobble" the center a bit left once again. One thing I've learned over the years is, sometimes it's better to change the satellite view to a slightly broader perspective (less close up). Not to suggest such a wide view that the upper outflow might skew one's perspective of motion (although sometimes an indication of the upper levels trying to steer that way), but to view the broader convective CDO and banding as a whole as it loops over and over. That tends to provide me a more reasonable and smoother perspective of overall motion rather then looking to intensely at eye wobbles. That can often be subject to vort maxes yanking them around a bit or obscure views sometimes giving a less then accurate impression of eye location (especially common in circumstances where there is an open eye wall such as now). While a well embedded eye within a low shear environment is pretty easy to follow, vertical shear environments might cause the eye to jog and reform toward the tug of mid to upper level motion. More reason (at least to me) to view the broader tendencies indicative of where somewhat divergent levels are attempting to steer the storm.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049676493020901377

[MacTavish]

I dont see any east component.

[KWT]

Given the dry air intrusion over the past few hours eroding the south eyewall, I think any guesses based on satellite are going to be a little iffy. Microwave and recon probably show a better broad picture of what is happening.

[txwatcher91]

This is probably going to be a strengthening storm all the way up until landfall... think Harvey type of strengthening up until landfall. I'm thinking a category 4 is a good possibility here. It has plenty of time over water to make it there and improving structure.

[NDG]

Slight west shift on the new track

Maybe by 10 miles at the most.

Significant implications in regard to densely populated Destin, however.

The track is now right over Panama City, it was 5 miles or east on the previous track, a lot worst for them than for Destin which will be in the weak side of the storm.

[FLpanhandle91]

Maybe by 10 miles at the most.

Significant implications in regard to densely populated Destin, however.

The track is now right over Panama City, it was 5 miles or east on the previous track, a lot worst for them than for Destin which will be in the weak side of the storm.

I agree. Was simply giving an example.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1049674635753783297

[Frank P]

Here a link from the NHC that shows their forecast changes over time of their 3 day forecast cone with the line of the expected landfall....
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/M ... e_and_wind

[chaser1]

Eye wall now open to the SE and East. I expect the convection now wrapping around the west to southwest to cut off any additional dry air intrusion, AND to fully wrap around the southeast quad. If this occurs over the next few hours, expect some pretty heft pressure drops and for the eye to slowly contract a bit. Dependent on whether the eye wall integrity can maintain itself then shortly thereafter i'd guess that a steady track east of due north will then commence. If that occurs, one would have to assume that track guidance will nearly have to begin incremental eastward shifts. My guess is stronger and a track just a tad more to the right by 5:00pm, with the same trend but faster occurring by 11:00pm

[sponger]

Slight west shift on the new track

Maybe 400 yards.

That NHC forecast track is really getting accurate! I nearly blew my coffee through my nose.

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon really nailed the center. 962.5 mb.

[chaser1]

Slight west shift on the new track

Maybe 400 yards.

That NHC forecast track is really getting accurate! I nearly blew my coffee through my nose.

Decaf or regular LOL?

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1049679489905688576

[KWT]

Eye wall now open to the SE and East. I expect the convection now wrapping around the west to southwest to cut off any additional dry air intrusion, AND to fully wrap around the southeast quad. If this occurs over the next few hours, expect some pretty heft pressure drops and for the eye to slowly contract a bit.

That would be my guess as well. I indeed think that maybe starting already as the convection is just starting to rotate towards the southern quad.

Also given the way it's deepening despite a less than impressive presentation is still a worry to me as well. Classic hot tower development today.

[SunnyThoughts]

Maybe by 10 miles at the most.

Significant implications in regard to densely populated Destin, however.

The track is now right over Panama City, it was 5 miles or east on the previous track, a lot worst for them than for Destin which will be in the weak side of the storm.

Winds extend out so far from center ( tropical storm force winds that is) Just read the NWS discussion out of Mobile , Ala. They are expecting tropical storm force winds even in MObile by after midnight into tomorrow morning. So ALL of the FLA panhandle are going to have to deal with winds Im afraid. Worst of course at the landfall point and East.

[BobHarlem]

Surge already starting to show up.

 https://twitter.com/OCSOALERTS/status/1049681342433320960