ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Check out that large eye starting to clear out.. major hurricane by morning.. and so far still holding around 24.5n.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

Agreed on it being a major by morning, but I’m curious: is it going through an erc right now? IR looks like 2 concentric eyewalls. I’m inclined to write it off as dry air entrainment, but I do remember watching Katrina go through a series of erc’s before it bombed out in the gulf as well.

[txwatcher91]

Can we get back to talking about Florence here and not other hurricanes? For those in the Carolinas this is a pretty bad situation and there are other places to discuss theoretical storm strength and such imo.

Having said that this map with the official plots (white dots) indicates the turn has indeed begun.

I figured that was the case. Most models were pretty spot on within 48-72hrs that this would begin its WNW movement around this time. XTRP model even has it right now as WNW. All this fuss about losing latitude and I think the lowest it got officially was 24.4N?

Anyways, I have family in Winston Salem, NC, which is a good deal inland to escape some of the highest winds/gusts, but I’m more afraid about rainfall totals and possible floods. Any pro-Met can give a rough idea of what that particular area of NC might experience (assuming models are spot on in track/intensity)?

Starting to get really worried for them.

Yes, there are a lot on here who over analyze the data and try to wish cast this into hitting them but the actual data shows that models are handling this just fine and the tight consensus combined with the 5H steering setup is one that won’t have large errors especially in the short term. With the possibility of this stalling inland like the Euro shows they should be aware of the flooding threat and also high winds if she makes it that far.

[eastcoastFL]

Check out that large eye starting to clear out.. major hurricane by morning.. and so far still holding around 24.5n.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

Pretty amazing loop and you can see the eye come into focus.

Off topic question. I remember discussing models with you last year during Irma and one of them kept showing some odd trough digging down from Canada into like Mississippi. I dont think it played out but since its a similar time of year is that a possibility that something like that could show up?

[meriland29]

Check out that large eye starting to clear out.. major hurricane by morning.. and so far still holding around 24.5n.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

Agreed on it being a major by morning, but I’m curious: is it going through an erc right now? IR looks like 2 concentric eyewalls. I’m inclined to write it off as dry air entrainment, but I do remember watching Katrina go through a series of erc’s before it bombed out in the gulf as well.

I would say it is possible, with the way she is amping up, she is out running herself a bit and needs to reconfigure...

[Aric Dunn]

So far, I have been tracking anywhere from 24.3 to 24.6 with every convective burst. unfortunately, because of said convection, we do not know the true motion yet. however it is still likely 270 with a lot of wobbles.

[reds37win]

Can we get back to talking about Florence here and not other hurricanes? For those in the Carolinas this is a pretty bad situation and there are other places to discuss theoretical storm strength and such imo.

Having said that this map with the official plots (white dots) indicates the turn has indeed begun.
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/nwpBzbE.png[/img]

I figured that was the case. Most models were pretty spot on within 48-72hrs that this would begin its WNW movement around this time. XTRP model even has it right now as WNW. All this fuss about losing latitude and I think the lowest it got officially was 24.4N?

Anyways, I have family in Winston Salem, NC, which is a good deal inland to escape some of the highest winds/gusts, but I’m more afraid about rainfall totals and possible floods. Any pro-Met can give a rough idea of what that particular area of NC might experience (assuming models are spot on in track/intensity)?

Starting to get really worried for them.

Having been through a couple that have gone through the Carolinas (Hugo, Fran, Floyd), I wouldn't worry too much about Winston-Salem. There could be some limbs down and some really good flooding, but I would be more worried about people living in metro areas such as Wilmington, Fayetteville, Raleigh (like me) and everyone closer to the coast than Winston-Salem.

[psyclone]

This is already a gnarly looking storm. it looks like it's ready to launch into that rapid intensification phase soon

[toad strangler]

I never thought the MINOR drop in latitude would be a factor. It was such a slight drop that took forever at 6mph or less. This turn will be followed by much faster motion. It’s all about a ridge now.

[floridasun78]

no one need maria or Irma type hurr with wind 185 gust too 190 look what Caribbean island damage and big pine keys have good bless who ever on way of hurr

[ScottNAtlanta]

Check out that large eye starting to clear out.. major hurricane by morning.. and so far still holding around 24.5n.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

Agreed on it being a major by morning, but I’m curious: is it going through an erc right now? IR looks like 2 concentric eyewalls. I’m inclined to write it off as dry air entrainment, but I do remember watching Katrina go through a series of erc’s before it bombed out in the gulf as well.

I think its just in the process of reforming the eye since it was sheared. You have to have an eye before it can be replaced

[floridasun78]

hope people do not go highway as did with hurr Floyd

[supercane4867]

It maybe trying to clear out an eye for real now.

[Blinhart]

Can we get back to talking about Florence here and not other hurricanes? For those in the Carolinas this is a pretty bad situation and there are other places to discuss theoretical storm strength and such imo.

Having said that this map with the official plots (white dots) indicates the turn has indeed begun.
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/nwpBzbE.png[/img]

I figured that was the case. Most models were pretty spot on within 48-72hrs that this would begin its WNW movement around this time. XTRP model even has it right now as WNW. All this fuss about losing latitude and I think the lowest it got officially was 24.4N?

Anyways, I have family in Winston Salem, NC, which is a good deal inland to escape some of the highest winds/gusts, but I’m more afraid about rainfall totals and possible floods. Any pro-Met can give a rough idea of what that particular area of NC might experience (assuming models are spot on in track/intensity)?

Starting to get really worried for them.

Having been through a couple that have gone through the Carolinas (Hugo, Fran, Floyd), I wouldn't worry too much about Winston-Salem. There could be some limbs down and some really good flooding, but I would be more worried about people living in metro areas such as Wilmington, Fayetteville, Raleigh (like me) and everyone closer to the coast than Winston-Salem.

It all depends on if it stalls or not, Winston Salem could get a whole lot of rain and sustained TS winds for days, so there could be severe flooding, mudslides, and serious damage.

[BobHarlem]

This is all I'm seeing trying to find a movement direction in the current satellite pics.. Beware of the wobble watching.



(Yes it is moving the wrong direction.)

[Blinhart]

When is the next RECON suppose to reach Florence, and when will they start trying to do more continuous flights?

I really hate the Z time zone thing.

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 991.2mb/ 55.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.9 5.2
Center Temp : -28.0C Cloud Region Temp : -61.2C
Scene Type : EYE

[Highteeld]

Explosive intensification in progress. Could be a cat 4 by the end of the night -- cat 5 isn't out of the question at some point -- only question is when it will happen.

[aperson]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 991.2mb/ 55.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.9 5.2
Center Temp : -28.0C Cloud Region Temp : -61.2C
Scene Type : EYE

I'd buy the instantaneous 5.2 in a heartbeat. It hasn't been overshooting convection much at all and the eye is still warming as it clears out.

[eastcoastFL]

The 11pm advisories are out on the other canes. Must be tough writing this one up with how quick its getting together.

[JarrodB]

Was in the Wally near the airport in Jax, FL this afternoon...the water aisle was nearly empty. After Matthew and Irma, people around here are erring on the side of prepping.

As a life long Florida resident, there are no excuses to be prepped this time of year, at leastvwith essentials. Waiting until the cone of uncertainity is on top of you is foolish.

But what do I know...i dropped out of MET school.and joined the Navy as an Aviation Electronics Technician.