ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

Maybe 400 yards.

That NHC forecast track is really getting accurate! I nearly blew my coffee through my nose.

Decaf or regular LOL?

Always regular!

[Gums]

Hope track keeps moving east just a tad.

Mike could be a clone of Kate. We had just settled in here in Niceville, and the impact was minimal except for short power problems. The topography is important, folks. The wind had to wrap around the protruding Cape San Blas nad thus cooled enuf and lost enuf moisture to be a biggie.

If you examine the area east of PC, you will see the dirth of high rise condos and massive subdivisions right on the Gulf. The big event will be felt from Port St Joe thru Appalachie and Panacea to St Marks. Not many places right on the Gulf, but many very low on the bayous and marshes ( see St Marks street view using Google maps, and I recommend that for all of you predicting cataclysmic end-of-the-earth impacts. Impact will be harsh, very. But those folks have already packed and in casinos over in Biloxi trading war stories with Katrina and Camille survivors).

Another place that will be hit with water is the strip of the Bend southwest of Perry all the way to Cedar Key.

Gums sends..

[Noles2016]

Expecting 12' of surge at St. Marks. Inland surge warnings for Wakulla... never seen this before...

[eastcoastFL]

definitely appears to wobble north east at the end of the run

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... llite-loop

[yzerfan]

No matter how well the state and county try to protect the road near the stumphole on Cape San Blas, I think this storm is going to seriously do its best to turn the St. Joe peninsula into an island. I can remember there used to be a small actual beach on the other side of the broken concrete wall protecting the main road along the peninsula, but that got effectively largely washed away somewhere around Hurricane Georges in 1998.

[Stormcenter]

Michael is moving NNNNW at the moment but should
begin a more northerly track and then NNE to NE
track. IMO

[meriland29]

Michael is moving NNNNW at the moment but should
begin a more northerly track and then NNE to NE
track. IMO

That's a lot of nnnnorth and very little west

[bob rulz]

Last few frames on visible are really ominous.

[Sanibel]

Can't tell if the dry air intrusion will temper intensification...It seems to be mixing it out and paving its own road...There's no real plunging front to inject the dry air but on the other hand a strengthening system might pull the dry air in...Hazy storms are strengthening ones...Nice area up there by St Joe...Drove it 15 years ago..Pine plantations...

[MGC]

Micheal now forecast to be near 125mph sustained near landfall likely rivaling Hurricane Eloise in 1975. Only limiting factor I think that may slow Michael down is dry air. Interesting to see how all those high rise condo in PCB stand up to the wind if Michael passes to the east of PCB....MGC

[NDG]

[meriland29]

Michael straddling that 86 longitude line and just wobbling back and forth on it since getting his bearings straight...

[BobHarlem]

Bringing out the wobble watchers friend satellite view from U Wisconsin

http://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?product ... imate=true

[SunnyThoughts]

Officials asking for evacuations of Pensacola Beach as well as PErdido Key....

[floridasun78]

i looking at beach cam we already seen storm surge on panama beach water taking over beach area were people seat on beach this pre storm when storm get closer could get wrost

[srainhoutx]

Zoomed visible imagery suggests 3 to 4 meso vorts rotating within the 30nm center of Michael.

[Hurricaneman]

i looking at beach cam we already seen storm surge on panama beach water taking over beach area were people seat on beach this pre storm when storm get closer could get wrost

Yep, things are going to get ugly

[KWT]

Can't tell if the dry air intrusion will temper intensification...It seems to be mixing it out and paving its own road...There's no real plunging front to inject the dry air but on the other hand a strengthening system might pull the dry air in...Hazy storms are strengthening ones...Nice area up there by St Joe...Drove it 15 years ago..Pine plantations...

I think rather than stop intensification it's stopping it really blowing up, there is clearly a vigorous circulation in there, given the fact that the southern eyewall has been quite weak over the last couple of hours and yet it is still strengthening.

The convection is starting to rewrap around again as well. Let's see whether it will make it this time. I hope it doesn't close it off close to land, that's usually a bad situation.

Ps those mesos look awesome.

[EquusStorm]

Went to Sopchoppy/Wakulla Springs on a youth retreat many years ago. Gorgeous area. Going to be one of their worse hits

[floridasun78]

Micheal now forecast to be near 125mph sustained near landfall likely rivaling Hurricane Eloise in 1975. Only limiting factor I think that may slow Michael down is dry air. Interesting to see how all those high rise condo in PCB stand up to the wind if Michael passes to the east of PCB....MGC

twc noticing too dry air