ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1521 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:09 am

Florida straits and into the Gulf of Mexico? Probably not but the west shifts are pretty pronounced.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1522 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:09 am

Aric Dunn wrote:I see all the models and ensembles have shifted quite a bit south.. not surprised. I bet they come even farther south..

Florida could be in play in the subsequent runs.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1523 Postby ronjon » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:18 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I see all the models and ensembles have shifted quite a bit south.. not surprised. I bet they come even farther south..

Florida could be in play in the subsequent runs.


i think the movement the next 24-48 hours is key. It it takes on a W-SW tilt, then we need to raise the flags here in Florida.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1524 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:21 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I see all the models and ensembles have shifted quite a bit south.. not surprised. I bet they come even farther south..

Florida could be in play in the subsequent runs.



IMO, there is a break point with these S adjustments coming soon as the models close in on 120 hours. A westward bound system landafalling between Melbourne Florida and GA/SC line is extremely rare, I lean Euro, and it's targetting SC, so either we see future Euro runs continue trending NC/SC area or if the S adjustments continue SFL will be in play. JMHO only! :D
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1525 Postby jdjaguar » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:36 am

Blown Away wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I see all the models and ensembles have shifted quite a bit south.. not surprised. I bet they come even farther south..

Florida could be in play in the subsequent runs.



IMO, there is a break point with these S adjustments coming soon as the models close in on 120 hours. A westward bound system landafalling between Melbourne Florida and GA/SC line is extremely rare, I lean Euro, and it's targetting SC, so either we see future Euro runs continue trending NC/SC area or if the S adjustments continue SFL will be in play. JMHO only! :D



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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1526 Postby artist » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:43 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1527 Postby clambite » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:48 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Wow landfall in SC on this Euro run

Yeah, but all of the damage is in NC !
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1528 Postby clambite » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:51 am

CronkPSU wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Image


Am I reading this right, a 950ish hurricane into Charleston/MB?

Myrtle, not Charleston
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1529 Postby tpinnola » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:51 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1530 Postby tomatkins » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:52 am

Blown Away wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I see all the models and ensembles have shifted quite a bit south.. not surprised. I bet they come even farther south..

Florida could be in play in the subsequent runs.



IMO, there is a break point with these S adjustments coming soon as the models close in on 120 hours. A westward bound system landafalling between Melbourne Florida and GA/SC line is extremely rare, I lean Euro, and it's targetting SC, so either we see future Euro runs continue trending NC/SC area or if the S adjustments continue SFL will be in play. JMHO only! :D


Also all of the models have a pretty significant recurve near the coast. To get to Florida it basically has to be not only south, but also recurve further west. They are of course linked ( a stonger ridge would probably extend further west as well).
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1531 Postby PandaCitrus » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:01 am

What exactly are the models saying there to prevent the ridge from just keeping Florence on a due west track like Andrew? Why can't the UKMet model of the other day with a straight track to south florida verify? The parallels are kind of spooky with 1992. Strong Pacific hurricane season back then, slow Atlantic, Hurricane Iniki. Andrew getting sheared and shredded and then west track to South Florida.

This year we have strong Pacific hurricane season, slow Atlantic, Hurricane Lane. Florence getting sheared and shredded and now a west track to ?????
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1532 Postby HurricaneEric » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:04 am

PandaCitrus wrote:What exactly are the models saying there to prevent the ridge from just keeping Florence on a due west track like Andrew? Why can't the UKMet model of the other day with a straight track to south florida verify? The parallels are kind of spooky with 1992. Strong Pacific hurricane season back then, slow Atlantic, Hurricane Iniki. Andrew getting sheared and shredded and then west track to South Florida.

This year we have strong Pacific hurricane season, slow Atlantic, Hurricane Lane. Florence getting sheared and shredded and now a west track to ?????


I think it has to do with how the models see the ridge orienting itself. The ridge seems to build in and allow for Florence to slide WNW-NW around it’s periphery. Otherwise a ridge that was oriented more east to west would continue Florence on a westerly track.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1533 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:16 am

The NHC does not let Flo go below 24.9 - I think this will be a good benchmark to see if that verifies
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1534 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:20 am

chris_fit wrote:The NHC does not let Flo go below 24.9 - I think this will be a good benchmark to see if that verifies
looks like it is already about 24.5 and still heading wsw.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1535 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:20 am

The next hour or so should be interesting with lots of 12Z modelsc coming out
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1536 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:31 am

GFS already a tad south at HR6, lol.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1537 Postby artist » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:32 am

Will 94l effect it?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1538 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:36 am

artist wrote:Will 94l effect it?


If it develops it would have to right? Wouldn’t the outflow act to shear Florence? And I would think it would create some kind of weakness in the ridge for Florence to move towards..but I’m really not sure how the models are going to handle it. It seems our complex steering pattern just got a little more complex.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1539 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:38 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:GFS already a tad south at HR6, lol.


Yep the model keep shifting south with slightly more ridging each run lately it seems. I have seen this story before....

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1540 Postby artist » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:38 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
artist wrote:Will 94l effect it?


If it develops it would have to right? Wouldn’t the outflow act to shear Florence? And I would think it would create some kind of weakness in the ridge for Florence to move towards..but I’m really not sure how the models are going to handle it. It seems our complex steering pattern just got a little more complex.

Yep, will be interesting to see what happens with it and what the pros here think.
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