ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1541 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:40 am

Noticing over the past day of models runs, each time Flo is a little SE of previous run, even early.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1542 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:43 am

that was a slight wsw motion at 36 hours then back west at 42..

interesting.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1543 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:45 am

Aric Dunn wrote:that was a slight wsw motion at 36 hours then back west at 42..

interesting.


I measured 12z GFS bottoming out @24.4, 11am NHC track never goes below 24.9...
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1544 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:45 am

GFS this run brings it almost all the way down to 24N. or just above that.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1545 Postby NC_Cyclone » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:46 am

Hr 48 absolute identical to 06z
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1546 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:49 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I see all the models and ensembles have shifted quite a bit south.. not surprised. I bet they come even farther south..

Florida could be in play in the subsequent runs.
There will need to still be a LOT of south shifts for that to be the case. I'm of the opinion that this is still a recurve scenario (I may be in the minority here) but the model concensus right now still has Flo well north of FL, i.e. mid Atlantic. That could change like you say but we are getting close to the magical 5 day window where the NHC is really really good at pegging track. Intensity is still a guess, not a wild guess but a guess nonetheless.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1547 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:49 am

NC_Cyclone wrote:Hr 48 absolute identical to 06z



Ya, so is 54 mostly
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1548 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:50 am

Aric Dunn wrote:GFS this run brings it almost all the way down to 24N. or just above that.


Through hour 54 the GFS is identical to the previous run and by 66 is basically the same maybe a touch east/slower.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1549 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:51 am

Actually slightly NE at HR 72...this is the part of the story where Hurricane Andrew begins throwing things at his laptop, if any of you are wondering.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1550 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:56 am

12z GFS... 90 hrs... Slightly NE of 06z... Ridge axis flatter E-W and building a little bit more W than 06z...
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1551 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:56 am

That ridge looks rather strong to the north at 78hrs..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1552 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:57 am

SFLcane wrote:That ridge looks rather strong to the north at 78hrs..

Indeed...strength wise, a few mb under 06z, a few above 00z.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1553 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:58 am

Appears to have turned westward at 90hrs
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1554 Postby Airboy » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:59 am

Don't need much change to take it to north Florida
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1555 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:59 am

0 to 90h. The 94L feature is interesting, to say the least.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1556 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:01 am

Chucking westward at 96hrs
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1557 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:01 am

Image
Through 96 hrs...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1558 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:02 am

The ridge is flexing its muscle at 96 hours and has expanded westward to the coast. What role 94L plays in all of this remains to be seen. I would think that it will cause some shear over Florence and allow for more weakening while at the same time leaving a weakness in the ridge.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1559 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:03 am

Image
12z GFS Trend through 96 hrs... Notice HP building W and axis is flattening more E to W...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1560 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:05 am

This gets closer to the extreme SE states every single run...
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