ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10151
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Noticing over the past day of models runs, each time Flo is a little SE of previous run, even early.
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
that was a slight wsw motion at 36 hours then back west at 42..
interesting.
interesting.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10151
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:that was a slight wsw motion at 36 hours then back west at 42..
interesting.
I measured 12z GFS bottoming out @24.4, 11am NHC track never goes below 24.9...
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
GFS this run brings it almost all the way down to 24N. or just above that.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:28 am
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1921
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
There will need to still be a LOT of south shifts for that to be the case. I'm of the opinion that this is still a recurve scenario (I may be in the minority here) but the model concensus right now still has Flo well north of FL, i.e. mid Atlantic. That could change like you say but we are getting close to the magical 5 day window where the NHC is really really good at pegging track. Intensity is still a guess, not a wild guess but a guess nonetheless.xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:I see all the models and ensembles have shifted quite a bit south.. not surprised. I bet they come even farther south..
Florida could be in play in the subsequent runs.
0 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4543
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
NC_Cyclone wrote:Hr 48 absolute identical to 06z
Ya, so is 54 mostly
0 likes
My Weather Station
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1498
- Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:GFS this run brings it almost all the way down to 24N. or just above that.
Through hour 54 the GFS is identical to the previous run and by 66 is basically the same maybe a touch east/slower.
1 likes
- Hurricane Andrew
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1891
- Age: 26
- Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
- Location: KS
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Actually slightly NE at HR 72...this is the part of the story where Hurricane Andrew begins throwing things at his laptop, if any of you are wondering.
2 likes
The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd
Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)
"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10151
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
12z GFS... 90 hrs... Slightly NE of 06z... Ridge axis flatter E-W and building a little bit more W than 06z...
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- Hurricane Andrew
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1891
- Age: 26
- Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
- Location: KS
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
SFLcane wrote:That ridge looks rather strong to the north at 78hrs..
Indeed...strength wise, a few mb under 06z, a few above 00z.
0 likes
The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd
Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)
"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Don't need much change to take it to north Florida
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20012
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
0 to 90h. The 94L feature is interesting, to say the least.


0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10151
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

Through 96 hrs...
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4236
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
The ridge is flexing its muscle at 96 hours and has expanded westward to the coast. What role 94L plays in all of this remains to be seen. I would think that it will cause some shear over Florence and allow for more weakening while at the same time leaving a weakness in the ridge.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10151
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

12z GFS Trend through 96 hrs... Notice HP building W and axis is flattening more E to W...
1 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1753
- Age: 25
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests