ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1541 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:52 pm

fendie wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Why are there posts claiming NHC is wrong and Gordon is only 45 mph? Radar shows a broad swath of 70-75kt winds around 7000ft which supports the officially assigned 70 mph value.


I'm guessing it's because there aren't surface observations to support 70 mph. It won't be long until we find out. Currently I'm seeeing velocity data from 3000ft above Pensacola at 72 mph. At the surface weather stations are reporting a maximum of ~30 mph.


THe highest relative velocities I can find are a much more believable 45kts at 5000ft.

this is no where near a hurricane. convection is removed from the center.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1542 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:54 pm

tolakram wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Why are there posts claiming NHC is wrong and Gordon is only 45 mph? Radar shows a broad swath of 70-75kt winds around 7000ft which supports the officially assigned 70 mph value.


How do radar derived winds at 7000ft equate to 70mph surface winds?


I have no idea. I can't find any obs to justify that surface speed, but, that's just me.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1543 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:54 pm

i have feeling we only see strong ts not hurr but gust i bet few hurr gust out their
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1544 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:56 pm

Saved loop
Image
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1545 Postby bella_may » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:56 pm

Convection ramping up again
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1546 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:57 pm

bella_may wrote:Convection ramping up again

looking more likely no hurr only strong ts but few strong could have hurr gust
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1547 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:58 pm

The Mobile sea buoy did go through Gordon's heaviest squalls just north of the center over the past hour. Peak 1-min wind was 46.6 kts. I'll take a surface observation over a flawed Doppler wind estimate from 7000 ft. The conversions from winds aloft to the surface were developed for the heavy convection in a hurricane's eyewall, and they're just very rough estimates. Each storm is different in the way those wind are carried down to the surface.

Image
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1548 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:58 pm

https://mynbc15.com/watch Local channel streaming live. Have reporters at the beaches. Just showed gulf shores, ala ( beach) was blowing pretty sporty there. They go back and forth to all their reporters.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1549 Postby psyclone » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:00 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Why are there posts claiming NHC is wrong and Gordon is only 45 mph? Radar shows a broad swath of 70-75kt winds around 7000ft which supports the officially assigned 70 mph value.


I have long suspected official intensities are often...generous. We'll find out soon.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1550 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:00 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:https://mynbc15.com/watch Local channel streaming live. Have reporters at the beaches. Just showed gulf shores, ala ( beach) was blowing pretty sporty there. They go back and forth to all their reporters.
this one casting too https://www.wxxv25.com/livestream/
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1551 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:01 pm

psyclone wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Why are there posts claiming NHC is wrong and Gordon is only 45 mph? Radar shows a broad swath of 70-75kt winds around 7000ft which supports the officially assigned 70 mph value.


I have long suspected official intensities are often...generous. We'll find out soon.


Often during land they'll err on the side of caution so people don't let their guards down, but at sea then can often be low.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Recon

#1552 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:06 pm

025
URNT15 KWBC 042301
NOAA2 0607A GORDON HDOB 05 20180904
225200 2824N 08515W 5053 05830 0333 -047 -078 162011 012 024 002 00
225230 2825N 08518W 5054 05828 0333 -050 -075 159013 014 027 001 00
225300 2825N 08520W 5053 05830 0333 -050 -077 166013 013 028 001 00
225330 2826N 08523W 5054 05828 0333 -052 -073 159013 014 029 001 00
225400 2827N 08526W 5053 05830 0333 -051 -070 168016 021 031 003 00
225430 2827N 08528W 5054 05828 0333 -047 -066 161018 022 032 008 00
225500 2828N 08531W 5054 05828 0332 -047 -067 152020 024 031 006 00
225530 2828N 08533W 5052 05830 0331 -049 -066 162017 021 030 006 00
225600 2829N 08536W 5052 05829 0330 -048 -067 190020 021 033 005 00
225630 2829N 08539W 5049 05831 0329 -048 -063 200018 022 034 005 00
225700 2830N 08541W 5047 05835 0330 -051 -075 206017 019 035 002 00
225730 2830N 08544W 5053 05826 0330 -050 -079 205014 015 036 002 00
225800 2831N 08546W 5101 05746 0323 -044 -074 203014 016 035 003 00
225830 2831N 08549W 5334 05395 0299 -028 -046 200014 015 037 001 00
225900 2832N 08552W 5504 05147 0106 -013 -030 200015 017 036 001 00
225930 2832N 08554W 5568 05057 0114 -009 -019 197019 019 036 002 00
230000 2833N 08557W 5701 04871 0126 -004 -010 194020 021 039 001 00
230030 2833N 08559W 5712 04853 0126 -001 -010 193020 021 040 002 00
230100 2833N 08601W 5709 04858 0125 -000 -013 219020 023 041 001 00
230130 2832N 08604W 5710 04856 0125 -001 -012 212024 025 042 002 00
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1553 Postby Florabamaman » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:11 pm

WKRG News 5 out of Mobile is providing excellent coverage at the moment. They are also bouncing from reporter to reporter and giving some surprising shots from around Baldwin / Mobile county, as well as Pensacola Beach. Conditions there are deteriorating rapidly.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1554 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:14 pm

Florabamaman wrote:WKRG News 5 out of Mobile is providing excellent coverage at the moment. They are also bouncing from reporter to reporter and giving some surprising shots from around Baldwin / Mobile county, as well as Pensacola Beach. Conditions there are deteriorating rapidly.


https://www.wkrg.com/watch-wkrg-news
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1555 Postby wx98 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:17 pm

So NHC has been using radar instead of recon obs. Interesting...
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Recon

#1556 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:18 pm

740
URNT15 KWBC 042311
NOAA2 0607A GORDON HDOB 06 20180904
230200 2832N 08606W 5816 04703 0123 +008 -005 219019 021 040 008 00
230230 2832N 08609W 5995 04460 0123 +022 +004 218016 017 041 006 03
230300 2832N 08611W 6243 04127 0120 +042 +015 195020 023 039 007 03
230330 2831N 08613W 6512 03780 0122 +061 +039 190021 022 036 002 00
230400 2830N 08615W 6775 03456 0127 +078 +057 201021 021 037 001 00
230430 2828N 08617W 6949 03247 0133 +089 +066 191022 023 037 001 00
230500 2827N 08619W 6958 03236 0133 +091 +062 189023 023 035 001 00
230530 2826N 08621W 6957 03239 0136 +088 +070 186024 024 036 001 00
230600 2825N 08622W 6956 03239 0139 +086 +074 183023 024 037 000 00
230630 2824N 08624W 6954 03243 0136 +088 +074 182027 029 037 001 03
230700 2824N 08627W 6956 03238 0138 +085 +076 186031 031 037 007 03
230730 2825N 08629W 6954 03240 0133 +087 +082 196028 029 038 006 00
230800 2825N 08631W 6956 03232 0122 +091 //// 199022 024 039 005 01
230830 2826N 08634W 6957 03231 0123 +090 //// 192022 024 040 004 01
230900 2827N 08636W 6956 03234 0124 +091 +087 185025 027 039 003 00
230930 2829N 08638W 6955 03236 0125 +093 +070 190022 022 039 003 00
231000 2830N 08640W 6956 03235 0128 +089 +080 197022 022 037 003 00
231030 2831N 08642W 6957 03231 0126 +090 +067 204022 024 036 003 00
231100 2832N 08644W 6957 03231 0123 +094 +054 206022 022 034 001 00
231130 2833N 08646W 6957 03230 0123 +092 +066 204024 025 038 000 00
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1557 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:22 pm

wx98 wrote:So NHC has been using radar instead of recon obs. Interesting...


Remember when the NHC dropped Sandy advisories for science reasons (no longer tropical)? They have a public safety job to do, primarily, and there is no need to be perfectly accurate with the wind speeds IMO. Error on the high side for land falling systems. The data is all there and the final report will be accurate.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1558 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:23 pm

most of the rain a wind is about to be over for the gulf shores area until the far eastern squall comes in late tonight.


Also no real reason to have recon out there anymore. everything is mostly on shore.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1559 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:25 pm

41 mph wind gust at Gulf Shores in the last few minutes. Highest I've seen for anywhere along the coast so far.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1560 Postby wx98 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:25 pm

tolakram wrote:
wx98 wrote:So NHC has been using radar instead of recon obs. Interesting...


Remember when the NHC dropped Sandy advisories for science reasons (no longer tropical)? They have a public safety job to do, primarily, and there is no need to be perfectly accurate with the wind speeds IMO. Error on the high side for land falling systems. The data is all there and the final report will be accurate.


Oh I definitely understand the reasoning. I remember that Sandy fiasco, and that dreadful Superstorm name they gave it when it became post-tropical. I believe they will be significant adjustments in post season to this storm.
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