ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Is it still moving west?

According to the NHC its still heading west at 7mph.

[eastcoastFL]

[aperson]

Nice LG CDO with a B ring trying to form. Getting to the fun part.

still got a while to get a b ring, tops will warm as the eye clears out. Still looking at a 5.0 slowly strengthening toward a 5.5 presentation over the next 6-12 hours imo.

[aperson]

LG ring OW eye for instant T5.0 presentation again. Eye may continue to warm for the next few frames. Looks 90-95kt to me atm.

[Yellow Evan]

Classic and clear cut case of T5.0.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The eye is really starting to clear out now...

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

[MississippiWx]

Yep. It looks like she's about to put it into high gear. Rapid intensification is underway.

[Yellow Evan]

This has a WMG eye now. Still not super organized CDO-wise but I can tell tomorrow will be fun.

[Aric Dunn]

anddd there she blows ....

[Hammy]

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Monday, Sep. 10, 2018 6:00 Z

Wind (1 min. avg.):
85 knots (98 mph | 44 m/s | 157 km/h)

Pressure:
973 mb (28.74 inHg | 973 hPa)

Up to Cat 2, probably back to major by the afternoon.

[JtSmarts]

The Euro ensembles really have it out for SC . I wonder if the EURO heads back North or the other models start to follow it?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 58.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES

[jlauderdal]

The Euro ensembles really have it out for SC . I wonder if the EURO heads back North or the other models start to follow it?

50 miles either side of the border needs to prepare for the eyewall of a major hurricane and everyone else in that region needs to prepare for power outages and massive rainfall,,if you were thinking about buying a generator, do it this morning, fyi, overnight from amazon is an option on some models especially the smaller ones and get yourself at least 5 days of gas for it, fyi don't forget the gas cans and other supplies from amazon or wherever online, i have 10 5 gallon tanks(my generator burns 10 gallons a day) in my place and fill them all up 5 days before an incoming system(avoid lines at all costs its a huge waste of time when prepping), can always put it in my car..good preparation is the best anxiety reducer in the books

[northjaxpro]

It's official now. The w/nw movement of Florence has commenced per NHC 5 a.m. advisory. Already at 105 mph. Rapid intensification underway.

[Vdogg]

The Euro ensembles really have it out for SC . I wonder if the EURO heads back North or the other models start to follow it?

Ukmet came back north though, and NHC is giving that a lot of weight so they haven't changed track as per their discussion. In fact, they say uncertainty has increased. NC/SC/VA need to be on alert. As stated in the newest advisory, Florence has started to make it's northwest turn. I would not be surprised to see Euro make some small northerly adjustments to track.

[GCANE]

Kicking butt and taking names

[GCANE]

Just about a solid Cat 2 on CSU CIRA Multi-Platform estimate

[bob rulz]

The eyewall has gotten significantly stronger in the last 30 or so minutes. I think this has strengthened to a category 3 even just since the 5am advisory.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 58.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES




Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 44...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Corrected to reflect that the 96 hour forecast point is inland.

Florence is rapidly strengthening this morning. The satellite
presentation has improved markedly overnight with a small 10-n-mi
wide-eye becoming apparent in infrared satellite pictures. The
upper-level outflow continues to expand over the northern and
northwestern portions of the storm, but is somewhat restricted over
the southeastern quadrant. Dvorak satellite classifications from
TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of around 80 kt at 0600 UTC, but
with the cooling of the cloud tops around the eye since that time,
the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt for this advisory.

Satellite fixes indicate that Florence has turned west-northwestward
(285 degrees), and is moving at a slightly faster forward speed of
8 kt. A high pressure ridge building to the north and northwest of
Florence is expected to steer the hurricane west-northwestward to
northwestward at a much faster forward speed over the southwest
Atlantic during the next few days. After that time, a building
ridge over the Ohio Valley is expected to cause a gradual reduction
in the forward speed of the cyclone as it approaches the
southeastern United States coastline. The latest run of the ECMWF
has shifted southwestward, along with its ensemble suite, while
there was little overall change in the GFS and its ensemble. On
the other hand, the UKMET shifted northeastward and is now along
the right side of the guidance envelope. With these changes to the
guidance, the overall spread has increased this cycle, however, the
corrected consensus aids (FSSE and HCCA) are not much different
than before, and the NHC track again follows these models very
closely. Users are cautioned to not focus on the exact forecast
track as the average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140
and 180 n mi, respectively.

Florence will be traversing very warm SSTs of around 29C and
remain within a very favorable upper-level environment during the
next couple of days. These conditions are expected to lead to
significant strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and
Florence is forecast to be a very powerful major hurricane on
its approach to the southeastern United States. The NHC intensity
forecast is slightly above all of the intensity guidance during the
first 24 hours, and is then a blend of the FSSE and HCCA models.
The global model guidance also increases the size of Florence's wind
field during the next few days, and this has been reflected in
the NHC wind radii forecast.

The NOAA G-IV jet is conducting another synoptic surveillance
mission this morning in support of the 1200 UTC model cycle, and
these flights will continue through Tuesday. A NOAA P-3 Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is also scheduled to conduct a research mission
into Florence this morning, with Air Force C-130 fix missions
beginning late this afternoon. Additional upper-air data are
being collected across portions of the central and eastern U.S.
via special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches. Hopefully
these data will help improve the track and intensity forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast, freshwater flooding from a
prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event inland, and
damaging hurricane-force winds. While it is too soon to determine
the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these impacts,
interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into the
mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of Florence,
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 24.9N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 27.3N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 28.8N 69.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 34.5N 78.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Ken711]

The Euro ensembles really have it out for SC . I wonder if the EURO heads back North or the other models start to follow it?

Ukmet came back north though, and NHC is giving that a lot of weight so they haven't changed track as per their discussion. In fact, they say uncertainty has increased. NC/SC/VA need to be on alert. As stated in the newest advisory, Florence has started to make it's northwest turn. I would not be surprised to see Euro make some small northerly adjustments to track.

I think the Euro will shift North more in line with the UKMet.