ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dspguy]

So, did that turn to the north happen? I looked at the 5pm, 11pm, 5am advisories. It looks like they are saying it gained 0.5° latitude while moving 1.6° west. I guess that constitutes a WNW heading? Did it make the turn "on-time" or "late?"

[bob rulz]

So, did that west turn happen? I looked at the 5pm, 11pm, 5am advisories. It looks like they are saying it gained 0.5° latitude while moving 1.6° west. I guess that constitutes a WNW heading? Did it make the turn "on-time" or "late?"

Basically right in line with what the models were forecasting. It's on track.

[Michele B]

The Euro ensembles really have it out for SC . I wonder if the EURO heads back North or the other models start to follow it?

50 miles either side of the border needs to prepare for the eyewall of a major hurricane and everyone else in that region needs to prepare for power outages and massive rainfall,,if you were thinking about buying a generator, do it this morning, fyi, overnight from amazon is an option on some models especially the smaller ones and get yourself at least 5 days of gas for it, fyi don't forget the gas cans and other supplies from amazon or wherever online, i have 10 5 gallon tanks(my generator burns 10 gallons a day) in my place and fill them all up 5 days before an incoming system(avoid lines at all costs its a huge waste of time when prepping), can always put it in my car..good preparation is the best anxiety reducer in the books

Where do you store that much gas? It scares me to have that much gas in the enclosed garage. Every time I go in there, I can smell it. I’m afraid of a fire....

[dspguy]

The Euro ensembles really have it out for SC . I wonder if the EURO heads back North or the other models start to follow it?

50 miles either side of the border needs to prepare for the eyewall of a major hurricane and everyone else in that region needs to prepare for power outages and massive rainfall,,if you were thinking about buying a generator, do it this morning, fyi, overnight from amazon is an option on some models especially the smaller ones and get yourself at least 5 days of gas for it, fyi don't forget the gas cans and other supplies from amazon or wherever online, i have 10 5 gallon tanks(my generator burns 10 gallons a day) in my place and fill them all up 5 days before an incoming system(avoid lines at all costs its a huge waste of time when prepping), can always put it in my car..good preparation is the best anxiety reducer in the books

I'd like to add that I tried ordering Next Day from Amazon before a hurricane once. Keep in mind that UPS/FedEx/etc don't operate on a normal schedule when an area gets the notice to start preparing for a hurricane. During Hurricane Matthew, it didn't scrape the coast until Saturday morning, but a Next Day Air package scheduled for the Tuesday before the storm was not delivered until after the storm. If I recall, the counties around the area were given the notice to begin hurricane prep and I think UPS only delivered to businesses on that Tuesday. By Tuesday evening when I went to the depot to pick it up, they had already closed down all operations. Even if my memory is off a little bit, definitely by Wednesday (3 days before schedule landfall) they were no longer delivering or allowing for pickup.

Point is: don't put your hopes on UPS/FedEx for something time critical right before a hurricane.

[MrJames]

[GCANE]

Last Drop from Gonzo (10) showing mid-level dry air and shear to Flo's west.

[NDG]

[GCANE]

Mid-level dry air very evident on GOES 16

[jlauderdal]

The Euro ensembles really have it out for SC . I wonder if the EURO heads back North or the other models start to follow it?

50 miles either side of the border needs to prepare for the eyewall of a major hurricane and everyone else in that region needs to prepare for power outages and massive rainfall,,if you were thinking about buying a generator, do it this morning, fyi, overnight from amazon is an option on some models especially the smaller ones and get yourself at least 5 days of gas for it, fyi don't forget the gas cans and other supplies from amazon or wherever online, i have 10 5 gallon tanks(my generator burns 10 gallons a day) in my place and fill them all up 5 days before an incoming system(avoid lines at all costs its a huge waste of time when prepping), can always put it in my car..good preparation is the best anxiety reducer in the books

Where do you store that much gas? It scares me to have that much gas in the enclosed garage. Every time I go in there, I can smell it. I’m afraid of a fire....

shelving units in my garage away from anything that could ignite it and my garage has ventilation because fumes can ignite it and yes it will smell but to be honest about it, igniting gas fumes is rather difficult, everything has to be right to create an explosion...look, you have to be careful and carbon monoxide is a much bigger danger than an explosion from storing gas, injuries from installing and taking down shutters, inland flooding, surge, etc...storing gas is very low on the list of dangers, if you dont feel confident dont do it and always evacuate if you are in a zone, they arent evacuating you from wind, its all about the surge

dont put gas in your generator when its running, that is really dangerous, far more dangerous than storing gas in your garage

know what you are doing before it hits, it was dark when i fired up the generator for irma and it was wet outside and windy, BE CAREFUL

we need to move over to the prep thread but one last thing...if you are going to run a generator and are bumping up against how much it will handle...if you are still running the old style light bulbs, upgrade everything in your house to LED, it uses approx 10% the watts and they run coiol, just do it now and be done with it, small investment

[jlauderdal]

The Euro ensembles really have it out for SC . I wonder if the EURO heads back North or the other models start to follow it?

50 miles either side of the border needs to prepare for the eyewall of a major hurricane and everyone else in that region needs to prepare for power outages and massive rainfall,,if you were thinking about buying a generator, do it this morning, fyi, overnight from amazon is an option on some models especially the smaller ones and get yourself at least 5 days of gas for it, fyi don't forget the gas cans and other supplies from amazon or wherever online, i have 10 5 gallon tanks(my generator burns 10 gallons a day) in my place and fill them all up 5 days before an incoming system(avoid lines at all costs its a huge waste of time when prepping), can always put it in my car..good preparation is the best anxiety reducer in the books

I'd like to add that I tried ordering Next Day from Amazon before a hurricane once. Keep in mind that UPS/FedEx/etc don't operate on a normal schedule when an area gets the notice to start preparing for a hurricane. During Hurricane Matthew, it didn't scrape the coast until Saturday morning, but a Next Day Air package scheduled for the Tuesday before the storm was not delivered until after the storm. If I recall, the counties around the area were given the notice to begin hurricane prep and I think UPS only delivered to businesses on that Tuesday. By Tuesday evening when I went to the depot to pick it up, they had already closed down all operations. Even if my memory is off a little bit, definitely by Wednesday (3 days before schedule landfall) they were no longer delivering or allowing for pickup.

Point is: don't put your hopes on UPS/FedEx for something time critical right before a hurricane.

today is the day to order, dont count on two day delivery for weds and dont wait until thsi afternoon to order, supplies will be limited...it took a month for home depot to be fully restocked after irma, major hurrican stalling out and meandering around nc, sc, va and possible coming south per the euro, get your supplies now

[supercane4867]

Flo is very close to major hurricane intensity this morning if not already one


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 968.2mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.4 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +12.0C Cloud Region Temp : -60.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[otowntiger]

Mid-level dry air very evident on GOES 16
]

Hopefully that dry air and shear can keep it in check and not let it RI - and/or hold it off as long as possible to maybe keep it from at least being historically strong.

[northjaxpro]

Florence is on the brink of being a major hurricane right now. May indeed be one now. As noted above, I pray that potential mid level dry air entrainment can at least keep tge cyclone from really bombing out.

[hipshot]

Nhc disco seems to hint at some factors that can lead to some weaking toward landfall...namely increasing shear. That would certainly be typical of can approaching the Carolinas. They still call for a 4 at landfall, but it will be interesting to see if it can maintain that strength for that long, even over the Gulf Stream if there is ANY shear in the area. They have peak at 72 hours, and it would still have 24 hrs to weaken some more. This of course will all have little effect on the surge and rain.

Well, keep in mind that the shear you're thinking of is usually the result of a trough digging in turning the storm more to the north, which also has the benefit of hurling dry air into a hurricane. Isabel, for example, was such a situation.

From what I heard from Levi yesterday, that trough that is ususally there to turn it north isn't there this time and that is the prime reason
for the forecasted stall after land fall and the real problem of very severe flooding.

[dspguy]

General question, but it does pertain to Florence. I can't seem to get to tinypic to make image links from my location - so if I kind person could look at these (I was using tropicaltidbits):

HWRF 6z Sep 10 @ HR 90 MSLP (mb) & 10m Wind Speed
and
HWRF 6z Sep 10 @ HR 90 MSLP & 850 mb Wind

What exactly am I looking at? I think I get the first one. I'm guessing it is showing wind speed at 10m up. Meaning, that's the type of wind speeds that my house is going to feel. Over water, the wind speeds are showing up as 130ish. A little inland, about 110ish, but past that, mostly 60mph or less. I guess I thought that was surprising.

The second one, I'm guessing is the wind speed at some level above 10m. I guess I don't understand what that is really and how it affects me. So, what exactly does this mean?

And for the record, no I'm not basing this on a decision to stay or go. This is out of curiosity. Maybe some other people here have seen the maps I'm talking about and maybe are wondering the same thing. Educate me, please!

[northjaxpro]

I am absolutely just terrified thinking about the potential of seeing catastrophic flooding across portions of the Carolinas. I pray people in flood prone areas are making all necessary contingencies to evacuate when required!

[Ntxw]

Some serious strengthening today. Of all the active storms across the globe today she is the best looking, dangerously. Likely a major now again.

[northjaxpro]

I have extended family who reside in Fayetteville and they were impacted severely by storm surge flooding along the Cape Fear River during Matthew in 2016 .It could be absolutely a devastating situation there and everywhere in that area of the projected landfall path of Florence.

[northjaxpro]

[/quote]


Wow! I am in complete awe of this cyclone!

[supercane4867]

The eye has warmed to 15C, well into WMG status. Clear cut DT5.5 now. Expect 12z best track to upgrade