ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[hurricaneCW]

Notice GFS like Euro buries Flo into CONUS vs abrupt loop... Sign models picking up on stronger HP...

I've said that's been the theme all season. The only OTS path Flo had was with the central Atlantic trough. Once models knew that wouldn't scoop her up, they sent her right towards the US.

Arguing climo over a high anomalous pattern seems so silly now.

[tolakram]

[p1nheadlarry]

Intensity was near sub-930mb for landfall.

Where did you see that?

GFS pressures. and I meant to say 935

OK, I was looking for sub 930.

Just for historical notes, the lowest pressure recorded by a TC in the Carolinas was 938 mb, done by both Hugo and Hazel. The OBX haven't seen a storm at that magnitude since 1899.

[SouthFLTropics]

I've seen this song and dance before time and time again. I've watched over multiple seasons the models trend further south and west during the course of a storm. This typically doesn't end well for someone. I would suspect that the SW shifts still aren't done yet. The GFS tends to underestimate HP. I'll be very interested in what today's 12z Euro shows. Does anyone have the 12z UKMET graphic?

[mcheer23]

CMC....Georgia/ South Carolina

[BobHarlem]

No picture (yet), but CMC landfalls in Savannah, GA next Saturday.

[Bocadude85]

12Z Canadian is way southwest, going with a Georgia landfall

[tolakram]

Notice GFS like Euro buries Flo into CONUS vs abrupt loop... Sign models picking up on stronger HP...

I've said that's been the theme all season. The only OTS path Flo had was with the central Atlantic trough. Once models knew that wouldn't scoop her up, they sent her right towards the US.

Arguing climo over a high anomalous pattern seems so silly now.

Who was arguing? I think comparing past climatology is perfectly valid. Reading too much into it is a problem, but it's a tool like everything else.

[SouthFLTropics]

If the SW adjustments continue we could be looking at the EXTREMELY RARE Georgia landfall. I'm still not thinking it gets far enough South to affect Florida but we are by no means out of the woods yet.

[SouthFLTropics]

I just took a look at the CMC and one interesting thing to note is how it arrived at the Savannah, GA landfall. It doesn't approach Savannah from the SE moving NW. Instead it was parallel with Savannah and hooked left (West) into it. Something to watch for on future model runs coming up. Do we start to see a left hook at the end of the other models???

[tolakram]

Rainfall will also be an issue with this.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro for comparison to upcoming 12z...

[blp]

Quite a shift south on the CMC.

[p1nheadlarry]

I've seen this song and dance before time and time again. I've watched over multiple seasons the models trend further south and west during the course of a storm. This typically doesn't end well for someone. I would suspect that the SW shifts still aren't done yet. The GFS tends to underestimate HP. I'll be very interested in what today's 12z Euro shows. Does anyone have the 12z UKMET graphic?

KingArabian (aka the user with the basketball gif as a signature) usually posts them. Saw them a few pages back.

[Aric Dunn]

12z ICON almost identical to 00z euro and 12z GFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=-72

[chris_fit]

UKMET keeps it on a pretty much due W heading all the way until 65W - Interesting

[Bocadude85]

12z UKMET has shifted quite a bit SW in the 1-5 day time frame

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

[Bocadude85]

It would seem that the models are starting to come to a pretty good consensus on a track toward SC/NC.

[supercane4867]

The landfall intensity that models are predicting doesn't seem unrealistic at all

[tolakram]

Latest GFS not on here yet, not sure about the UKMET