ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nederlander]

Mid-level dry air very evident on GOES 16
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Hopefully that dry air and shear can keep it in check and not let it RI - and/or hold it off as long as possible to maybe keep it from at least being historically strong.

The problem is that Florence is already well developed and has a good size moisture envelope. Going to be rather difficult for that section of dry air to penetrate the core.

[Ntxw]

The eye has warmed to 15C, well into WMG status. Clear cut DT5.5 now. Expect 12z best track to upgrade

Recon is scheduled. Good test for dvorak estimates with high latitude nature of the system. Winds/pressure will be interesting to watch. Maybe they will find 140kts with 935mb or something crazy like that in a few days.

[northjaxpro]

You are likely right about this Nederlander unfortunately.. That is why I was saying I am praying and hoping for anything to halt the rapid intensifiication. Anything at this point. .A frightening prospect unfolding for the Carolinas.

[GCANE]

Gonzo is finding dry air all around Flo.
Seems like OHC is predominating the intensification process.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Gonzo is finding dry air all around Flo.
Seems like OHC is predominating the intensification process.

GFS shows the dry air...it (and the other models) also show Flo's circulation protecting her. I don't think it will be much of a hinderance...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Shear is moving with the storm, doesn't seem to be hurting her either.

Now, these factors will likely prevent her from becoming a 5, or maybe even a strong 4, but the NHC's forecast seems to discount them as hindering a 145-150mph hurricane. And even a 3 of her size and magnitude could be devastating.

[Aric Dunn]

At least the last 3 hours Florence has been heading due west.

[SconnieCane]

Mid-level dry air very evident on GOES 16

Looks like it is most prominent to the southeast of the storm, could explain why the outflow appears somewhat restricted in that direction. Taking that map verbatim and assuming the dry air stays put and doesn't move/dissipate over the coming days (not a good assumption but it's all I have to go on right now) the storm should move into an area with higher moisture content in a day or two, then back into some drier air closer to the coast, but whether or not that wraps in in time to notably weaken it is questionable at this time.

[chris_fit]

She's about to cross 25N exactly as forecast by the NHC - Amazing these computers are. Would love to meet the engineers and scientists that develop these tools.

[cycloneye]

Up to cat 3.

AL, 06, 2018091012, , BEST, 0, 249N, 595W, 100, 962, HU

[Aric Dunn]

She's about to cross 25N exactly as forecast by the NHC - Amazing these computers are. Would love to meet the engineers and scientists that develop these tools.

this is the key moment.. the models have her taking a much more wnw turn..

currently, florence is still West ( the last 3 hours) and every hour of this continuous motion without turning will start to make large shifts for landfall.

already south of the 5am track..

[GCANE]

Last three Archer satellite fixes show a consistent and increasing deviation south of forecast track.

[supercane4867]

Some of those dry airs are subsidence by the storm itself

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1039128859537559558

[plasticup]

Florence is back with a vengeance. I expect the Cat 3 upgrade shortly. Maybe even before the 11am advisory.

[Hurricane Andrew]

You know, NHC has always been good, but in recent years, they've been flat-out great.

If they have a 115-140mph hurricane landfalling in your backyard, I'd listen. All of NC, SC, and parts of VA should be on alert for hurricane conditions. Wind, surge, rain. Further inland, flooding threat. This thing could stick around for a bit.

[GCANE]

Heavy-duty eyewall building, about 15 min ago

[northjaxpro]

Hmmm.. This is very interesting indeed!

[chris_fit]

Last three Archer satellite fixes show a consistent and increasing deviation south of forecast track.

http://i65.tinypic.com/2q8r1oi.png

Great map - Are you able to share link on where you get this this map for this and other storms?

[Aric Dunn]

http://i65.tinypic.com/2q8r1oi.png

Hmmm.. This is very interesting indeed!

if this keeps going for another few hours. I wont say Im not surprised. lol