ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

So when was the last time Panama City got hit directly by a Major Hurricane?

This archieve of Panama City is from Hurricane City site.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/panamacity.htm

[Frank P]

to me he still has some westerly component, probably tracking just west of due north or so.. on this sat loop he also appears to be a tad west of the forecast point... wobble here or there with this system will make a big difference on if you get the east or west quads... I would want no part of the core and would want that west side for sure...
http://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?product ... imate=true

[Florabamaman]

If current track predicted by NHC holds true, what kind of conditions can be expected in the milton, fl area (Santa Rosa County)?. Local met reports are mixed at best. Some say 75 mph + winds, some say 25-30 mph. So many people here are used to the West side of the storm being a non-event that I am afraid some, who haven't experienced such a storm, may take things for granted.

[plasticup]

So when was the last time Panama City got hit directly by a Major Hurricane?

Opal, 1995?

[supercane4867]

The last major hurricane landfall within 50 miles from Panama city was Elosie, and the last major tracked directly over Panama city goes back to 1894.


Opal made landfall over Pensacola beach

[Florabamaman]

So when was the last time Panama City got hit directly by a Major Hurricane?

Opal, 1995?

Opal came in at Pensacola Beach.

[HDGator]

Well this burst maybe the one that really takes hold, it looks like the core is as good as I've seen it and the eye has really popped out nicely. Suspect the next set of recon missions find a major cane, pressure down into the 950s.

Latest Euro takes this from 978mb at 12z today to 940mb by landfall. It drops 38mb in 30 hours. Unreal and based on IR it's in the process of heading towards that.

That's disturbing.
I've been getting more worried about the timing of Michael getting his act together. We have pretty good eye presentation on satellite right when he has a day left over the warm Gulf waters.
This is not shaping up very good.

[floridasun78]

So when was the last time Panama City got hit directly by a Major Hurricane?

1985 Elena wind of 125

[meriland29]

Out of curiosity, what are the chances he landfalls as a cat 4 or more ?

[KWT]

So when was the last time Panama City got hit directly by a Major Hurricane?

This archieve of Panama City is from Hurricane City site.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/panamacity.htm

That is creepy, the statistical time Panama should have a hurricane is...2018.

If it keeps its presentation the depth of 934mbs from the ECM is really possible...big if but the shear and dry air is at there least problematic.

[plasticup]

Out of curiosity, what are the chances he landfalls as a cat 4 or more ?

NHC is predicting landfall around 125 mph. Cat 4 starts at 130 mph. So I'd say 20-30% chance that this storm is Cat 4 on landfall.

[Ritzcraker]

Check out the interaction that's about to take place between Michael and that front!

[txwatcher91]

Out of curiosity, what are the chances he landfalls as a cat 4 or more ?

Based on the improved IR presentation and models showing this bombing out as it approaches FL I would give it a 60% of hitting cat 4 and making landfall at that intensity.

[ColdMiser123]

Big <-80 C hot tower in the NE eyewall developing within the last hour.

[La Sirena]

So when was the last time Panama City got hit directly by a Major Hurricane?

This archieve of Panama City is from Hurricane City site.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/panamacity.htm

I love that site! Before Irma, he had predicted that Marathon was due to be hit next by a major hurricane that year. Pretty close....it hit Big Pine Key, which is where I lived. Great stats and extremely educated guesswork.

[GCANE]

Just getting over the Loop Current now.
Accounting for most of the intensification seen in the last hour.
Going to be a fireworks show.

[cycloneye]

The next two missions will depart at 3:15 PM EDT (Air Force) and at 4:00 PM EDT. (NOAA) My take about those two missions is they will be the most important ones since they began to fly to this system because Michael is more matured now and surely they will find the pressure much lower than 965 mbs.

[hurricaneCW]

Probably a 50/50 chance at a Cat 4 landfall, this is looking like one of those rare cases where the storm is still intensifying right at impact however a few negative factors may keep it in the Cat 3 range.

The 125mph peak at LF by the NHC looks good to me.

[pgoss11]

Check out the interaction that's about to take place between Michael and that front!

https://imgur.com/AQQuzXc

That front seems to be moving fairly quickly. Should be interesting to see if the turn has been modeled correctly.

[KWT]

Big <-80 C hot tower in the NE eyewall developing within the last hour.

Those hot towers have been totally relentless in that NE quad. Really rotating around the core, think we are in a RI phase again.

So what do we need think recon will find pressure wise?

Those who plan to ride out Michael, hope this doesn't get stronger for their sakes... I will say 952mbs.