ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[chris_fit]

Watch out SC (and the islands - see 92L)

[SFLcane]

Thats another southward shift on the EURO on landfall

[tolakram]

It should move generally parallel to the height axis. Black line is mine.

[Aric Dunn]

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png

[SFLcane]

00z probably into northern Florida at this rate...ensembles should be fun

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Shades of Hugo on the last few runs.

[jlauderdal]

Yet another south shift with the Euro, when are they going to stop?

based on error this far out, i would be getting very concerned if i lived in jacksonville, fl...yes error works to the right too but the trend has been to the left

[chris_fit]

00z probably into northern Florida at this rate...ensembles should be fun

It was not a staggering shift - 50-60 miles-ish @ 144 hours - I think we finally have some consistency.

[PandaCitrus]

Looks like 961mb Cat 3? just north of Charleston on landfall. Where Hugo hit?

[tolakram]

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png

Don't direct embed, you are killing his page and probably costing him money. Every person who views that image here pulls it down from weathermodels web server. We have to be careful of that, which is why we want people to copy to a hosting site first.

[chris_fit]

168 hrs

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1038132868927512576

[OuterBanker]

12 z Euro init at 1005 mb. 11 am tpc had it 995. Only has at 1005 in 48.

I think it has Flo to weak for too long. Not sure what effect that would have on it's track.

To me Flo looks the best it has in the past 24 right now. I guess it could weaken more, but I'm not sure.

Still hoping for a fish.

btw, did it miss the escape route already?

[Blown Away]

12z Euro_9.7.18:
Initialized: @24.8N/51.1W.
Lowest Latitude: @24.7N/56.6W at 48 hrs.

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think the ECMWF is underdoing the intensity (Ryan Maue on Twitter seems to agree), brings it down to 1007mb by 48 hours. Basically a TD. Will probably stay 50-55 knots for the next two days.

[toad strangler]

00z probably into northern Florida at this rate...ensembles should be fun

It was not a staggering shift - 50-60 miles-ish @ 144 hours - I think we finally have some consistency.

Agree. It was a shift South but a small margin.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I think the ECMWF is underdoing the intensity (Ryan Maue on Twitter seems to agree), brings it down to 1007mb by 48 hours. Basically a TD. Will probably stay 50-55 knots for the next two days.

HWRF and HMON are similar with that weakening.

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think the ECMWF is underdoing the intensity (Ryan Maue on Twitter seems to agree), brings it down to 1007mb by 48 hours. Basically a TD. Will probably stay 50-55 knots for the next two days.

HWRF and HMON are similar with that weakening.

Both the HWRF and HMON are deeper than the ECMWF through 48 hours. HWRF does show slight weakening, but ramps it up to Cat 4 by 120 hours. HMON looks constant/slight deepening through 48 hours.