ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[jdjaguar]

00z probably into northern Florida at this rate...ensembles should be fun

If that pans out, fun is not the word I would employ.
Still aways out, but starting to get concerned with the southward shifts.

[tolakram]

[SFLcane]

To think its still 5-6 days out so much can still change

[Frank2]

jdjaguar,

I don't think so - admin posted a more possible scenario above...

[otowntiger]

The Euro did shift south again, but it was far from a wild shift. A couple dozen miles from what I see. The closer we get to the 4-5 day window the smaller the swings will be in my opinion.

[SFLcane]

Bets alot more EPS members over florida we shall see in about an hr

[northjaxpro]

12z UKMET has shifted quite a bit SW in the 1-5 day time frame

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Those in Florida/Georgia might want to keep an eye on tonight's' 0Z UK run. I'll be very curious whether the UK begins to further extend it's nearer term westward motion. This model earlier then any other has picked up and maintained a stronger W. Atlantic low to mid level ridging and the degree to which Florence (through her range of intensity) might react to those steering mechanisms in place.

You better believe I am anxiously awaiting tonight's 0Z UKMET run.

[somniture]

[txwatcher91]

12z UKMET has shifted quite a bit SW in the 1-5 day time frame

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Those in Florida/Georgia might want to keep an eye on tonight's' 0Z UK run. I'll be very curious whether the UK begins to further extend it's nearer term westward motion. This model earlier then any other has picked up and maintained a stronger W. Atlantic low to mid level ridging and the degree to which Florence (through her range of intensity) might react to those steering mechanisms in place.

You better believe I am anxiously awaiting tonight's 0Z UKMET run.

The 12z UK run I see plotted here is aiming for SC/NC, not Florida or Georgia. In fact just a few days ago UK was sending this into the Bahamas so if anything it has trended north to align with the Euro idea. Also keep in mind models are probably a bit too slow to restrengthen Florence and if she strengthens quicker than anticipated she will probably track a bit north of current guidance.

[Blown Away]

00z probably into northern Florida at this rate...ensembles should be fun

It was not a staggering shift - 50-60 miles-ish @ 144 hours - I think we finally have some consistency.

Agree. It was a shift South but a small margin.

Euro continues to bury Flo deep into the CONUS... Model seeing stronger ridge each run as it closes in...

[Frank2]

The main suite of models still favor the Carolina's - including the UK...

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[meriland29]

It was not a staggering shift - 50-60 miles-ish @ 144 hours - I think we finally have some consistency.

Agree. It was a shift South but a small margin.

Euro continues to bury Flo deep into the CONUS... Model seeing stronger ridge each run as it closes in...

I don't know how much stronger a ridge can get, it is already record setting..

[Steve]

12Z Globals

EC hits South Carolina on Thursday somewhere between Folly Beach and McClellanville.

CMC hits GA/SC border on a go slow landfall taking about 24 hours to come in and is on sort of a WWSW path almost as it cuts directly into Georgia next weekend.

GFS hits Coastal NC on Thursday.

GFS FV3 does not landfall and only brushes the coasts of NC/VA/MD/DE.

[artist]

On, yet off topic, for those wanting to post images here. Click and hold on image you wish to post, click copy, go to tinypic.com,
Click button that says url, then click inside url box holding for a second, then click paste into the box and upload now. It will show you your image and and some choices. Click the box that says.
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Copy and paste that line of text here and your image will show up here.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1038137632621056001

[SFLcane]

There's your southward trend above from the euro

[Hurricaneman]

Agree. It was a shift South but a small margin.

Euro continues to bury Flo deep into the CONUS... Model seeing stronger ridge each run as it closes in...

I don't know how much stronger a ridge can get, it is already record setting..

With the models it’s not the strength of the ridge but the orientation that’s been changing, it’s been coming in flatter in consecutive runs which means more south

[hurricaneCW]

I think the ECMWF is underdoing the intensity (Ryan Maue on Twitter seems to agree), brings it down to 1007mb by 48 hours. Basically a TD. Will probably stay 50-55 knots for the next two days.

HWRF and HMON are similar with that weakening.

Both the HWRF and HMON are deeper than the ECMWF through 48 hours. HWRF does show slight weakening, but ramps it up to Cat 4 by 120 hours. HMON looks constant/slight deepening through 48 hours.

The intensity forecasts are a total crapshoot, but they signal a strengthening hurricane up till LF. I'm thinking this peaks at 160 mph by early next week.

[robbielyn]

On, yet off topic, for those wanting to post images here. Click and hold on image you wish to post, click copy, go to tinypic.com,
Click button that says url, then click inside url box holding for a second, then click paste into the box and upload now. It will show you your image and and some choices. Click the box that says.
IMG Code for Forums & Message Boards
Copy and paste that line of text here and your image will show up here.

No thanks. i’m a one click kinda gal. So i will let you all do the posting of pics. hehe

[chris_fit]

12z ECMF ENS coming in (so far) much more clustered and a little Left of the previous run as far as the mean goes. It appears there will be less (if any) members hitting FL from what I'm seeing.