ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PavelGaborik10]

Good timing that recon is en route. Should be arriving in an hour or so. I think they'll find 125-130 knots by then.

Seems a tad excessive. I think we'll see somewhere around 105-115(max)KNOTS.

I was thinking between 120-125 Knots right around 145 MPH due to Stellite Presentation.

I suppose we'll see here shortly! Pretty excited to see what recon finds.

[OuterBanker]

Dare county Emergency Operations Center has just issued a mandatory evacuation for Hatteras Island today and the rest of Dare County tomorrow (Duck, Kitty Hawk, Nags Head, etc).

[PavelGaborik10]

Not so sure I would considering jumping up from a category 1 Hurricane from when I went to sleep last night, to a 3 but the time I awake "slow and measured" strengthening, but that's just me.

I agree with that assessment, but I would use the word steady-fast strengthening instead. The deepening doesn't seem all that explosive to me after following the Epac this and other seasons. I still think it reaches that peak intensity of 130-140 knots regardless.

Not sure I would label it "explosive" either, but it's satellite appearance has improved tremendously since last night. I wouldn't be shocked if Recon finds a strong cat 3 by the time it arrives.

[Ken711]

Because she is staying further South than forecasted, so she will be coming in further South which would cause the cone to move Left.

But if it's a more intense hurricane wouldn't that track faster and neglect any interim South movements?

Not necessarily, it all depends on the Ridge to the North.

Thanks. I'm still thinking the Euro 0z was an error run and the 12z run will bring it back NE.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/1039158779961647104

[Aric Dunn]

Been chugging nearly due west the last 4 hours... going to miss the next forecast point to the south by quite a bit. no sign of a turn yet. should be happening by down per the models.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Storm has an interesting XTRAP trend moving from southerly over the past 6 hours. This flies in the face of the NW turn and to me indicates that Ridge is building west, not retreating to the North, North East or staying stationary. An earlier EURO had this storm doing a loop over NC and back over SE Ga which to me showed some belief by that run the ridge would become stronger or move west with the storm but staying out in front. While the most recent EURO shows a straight line path after land fall, what I am seeing does not equal what the models are all telling me.

This movement generally west continues another day and I will skeddalle from NE Florida to points west starting with Tallahassee regardless of the cone! :roll:

Why go due West? If I was in Jax, I would go SW to Gainesville. More to do there and easier to get back to Jax.

I'm staying right here until this witch is N of 30.

[Ken711]

Been chugging nearly due west the last 4 hours... going to miss the next forecast point to the south by quite a bit. no sign of a turn yet. should be happening by down per the models.

Aric the NHC 5 AM discussion said it already has turned WNW. Has it turned back west again since then?

"Satellite fixes indicate that Florence has turned west-northwestward (285 degrees), and is moving at a slightly faster forward speed of 8 kt."

[Aric Dunn]

Been chugging nearly due west the last 4 hours... going to miss the next forecast point to the south by quite a bit. no sign of a turn yet. should be happening by down per the models.

Aric the NHC 5 AM discussion said it already has turned WNW. Has it turned back west again since then?

"Satellite fixes indicate that Florence has turned west-northwestward (285 degrees), and is moving at a slightly faster forward speed of 8 kt."

they do 6 hour average motion. since the 5am advisory, it has been nearly due west.

[supercane4867]

I'm going with 110kt for the first recon pass

[northjaxpro]

Been chugging nearly due west the last 4 hours... going to miss the next forecast point to the south by quite a bit. no sign of a turn yet. should be happening by down per the models.

Yeah Aric as pointed out a page or so back on this thread, if this continues well into the afternoon, this would be quite concerning indeed.

[plasticup]

P-3 plane has left Bermuda for reconnaissance of the storm. Great timing, as the satellite presentation has improved so much and this is likely a Cat 3/4 storm. And some location fixes will help is establish whether she is making the WNW turn as expected.

NHC stated in their last advisory that it has already turned WNW

The speed and degree of the turn are important though. And recon can be more precise than satellites in this. I suppose less-so in a well-defined and unsheared system, but still.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/1039163152112537601

[gatorcane]

Yes definitely moving west the last 4 hours. Hopefully just a temporary thing but these slight deviations can have big upstream implications.

[seahawkjd]

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.0°N 60.0°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

[Aric Dunn]

Per the 11am .. west at 13 mph

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 60.0W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES



Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Florence is quickly becoming a powerful hurricane. Satellite images
show that the distinct eye has warmed in the center, with convection
increasing in the eyewall during the past several hours. The initial
wind speed is set to 100 kt, closest to the CIMSS-ADT value. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter will be in the area later this morning for a more
accurate estimate.

The hurricane is moving over progressively warmer waters over
the next couple of days, with water temperatures peaking near 85F.
In combination with the low vertical wind shear in the forecast
during that time, Florence should continue to strengthen, and all
models show it becoming a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. The
corrected-consensus guidance has done quite well with this
intensification episode, and I don't see any reason to deviate much
from them at this time. As Florence approaches the southeastern
United States, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity from
eyewall cycles, but even if this occurs, the hurricane's wind field
is expected to grow with time, increasing the storm surge and inland
wind threats. The bottom line is that there is increasing
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.

During the last several hours, Florence has turned westward again,
estimated at 11 kt. The steering currents are becoming well-
defined as as a very strong ridge builds over the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean, forcing Florence to move faster toward the
west-northwest during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday,
a turn toward the northwest is possible due to the orientation of
the Atlantic ridge, along with a slight decrease in forward speed
due to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes. The various
models are shifting around at long range, but the model consensus
has barely budged in the past few model cycles. Thus the new NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, near the NOAA and FSSE
consensus guidance. It is important not to focus on the exact
forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140
and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well
away from the center.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the
mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 25.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 25.5N 61.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 29.5N 71.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 33.0N 76.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

[plasticup]

092
WTNT31 KNHC 101448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 60.0W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

[ScottNAtlanta]

Florence is at 115mph...its a major now

[supercane4867]

View from ISS this morning