ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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chaser1
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1701 Postby chaser1 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:33 pm

SFLcane wrote:https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1038137632621056001


No spread in forecast range there :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1702 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:36 pm

:eek:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1038148630140669959


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1703 Postby ronjon » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:38 pm

meriland29 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Agree. It was a shift South but a small margin.


Euro continues to bury Flo deep into the CONUS... Model seeing stronger ridge each run as it closes in...


I don't know how much stronger a ridge can get, it is already record setting..


Oh it can get stronger...think Andrew.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1704 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:40 pm

I take that back, FL still in play, at least Central and N FL

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1705 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:40 pm

chris_fit wrote:12z ECMF ENS coming in (so far) much more clustered and a little Left of the previous run as far as the mean goes. It appears there will be less (if any) members hitting FL from what I'm seeing.


When you say left, that's south, why would you think the members would not move south?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1706 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:43 pm

chris_fit wrote:I take that back, FL still in play, at least Central and N FL



the majority of the members have shifted south again. there are just less stragglers.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1707 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:44 pm

Yikes on those ensembles... :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1708 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:45 pm

And there you have it. There is a discernible northern and southern camp here - I tired to circle them. My bet is on somewhere in the middle.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1709 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:46 pm

Once again this event is 5-7 days out folks...No doupt the trend is south
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1710 Postby ronjon » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:46 pm

Euro 12z Ensemble - many into North Florida and a few into S Florida.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL06_2018090712_ECENS_large.png
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1711 Postby nativefloridian » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:47 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
chris_fit wrote:I take that back, FL still in play, at least Central and N FL


the majority of the members have shifted south again. there are just less stragglers.


Aric....what's your best guestimate on how long the south trends will continue? Also would like to know if 94L would be a factor in keeping Flo low or encourage her to follow.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1712 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:48 pm

ronjon wrote:
meriland29 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Euro continues to bury Flo deep into the CONUS... Model seeing stronger ridge each run as it closes in...


I don't know how much stronger a ridge can get, it is already record setting..


Oh it can get stronger...think Andrew.



I try not to think about Andrew. It wasn't really a question but more of a statement that the ridge is already record setting, one of the strongest we have had in a long time...and to say it will get stronger is impressive in general.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1713 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:48 pm

nativefloridian wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
chris_fit wrote:I take that back, FL still in play, at least Central and N FL


the majority of the members have shifted south again. there are just less stragglers.


Aric....what's your best guestimate on how long the south trends will continue? Also would like to know if 94L would be a factor in keeping Flo low or encourage her to follow.


All depends on how long FLorence continues to move wsw...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1714 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:48 pm

chris_fit wrote:I take that back, FL still in play, at least Central and N FL


That’s further South than before...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1715 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:48 pm

So the "HWFI" intensity on this is for the 18z HWRF, right?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ty_18z.png
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1716 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:49 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
meriland29 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Euro continues to bury Flo deep into the CONUS... Model seeing stronger ridge each run as it closes in...


I don't know how much stronger a ridge can get, it is already record setting..

With the models it’s not the strength of the ridge but the orientation that’s been changing, it’s been coming in flatter in consecutive runs which means more south



True, very true. But isnt it also significant that the strength will play a huge part in regards to the system behind her in how it will impact it?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1717 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:50 pm

They need to start doing some synoptic gulfstream flights. that will help a lot.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1718 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:52 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
nativefloridian wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:


Aric....what's your best guestimate on how long the south trends will continue? Also would like to know if 94L would be a factor in keeping Flo low or encourage her to follow.


All depends on how long FLorence continues to move wsw...


I can't see this WSW moving anymore. It's been riding about 25N all day to my eyes
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1719 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:53 pm

chris_fit wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
nativefloridian wrote:
Aric....what's your best guestimate on how long the south trends will continue? Also would like to know if 94L would be a factor in keeping Flo low or encourage her to follow.


All depends on how long FLorence continues to move wsw...


I can't see this WSW moving anymore. It's been riding about 25N all day to my eyes


According the DVORAK it is down to 24.8N likely lower than that. still looks south of due west.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1720 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:53 pm

chris_fit wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
nativefloridian wrote:
Aric....what's your best guestimate on how long the south trends will continue? Also would like to know if 94L would be a factor in keeping Flo low or encourage her to follow.


All depends on how long FLorence continues to move wsw...


I can't see this WSW moving anymore. It's been riding about 25N all day to my eyes

It’s not even above 25N anymore. it’s for sure WSW or WWSW
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