ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[SunnyThoughts]

Ummm..gfs is not what is forecast for the greater Pensacola area

Yeah, hopefully is way overblown on gfs. I have no clue how authorities could get thousands with their little tents camping on the beach out of there.

As you know..thousands are camping out near portofino this weekend with no clue about tropical weather. Unless these models change..they need to get into hotels or at least away from the beach

Exactly. This is going to be a cluster no matter intensity.

[Ivanhater]

Ummm..gfs is not what is forecast for the greater Pensacola area

Yeah, hopefully is way overblown on gfs. I have no clue how authorities could get thousands with their little tents camping on the beach out of there.

As you know..thousands are camping out near portofino this weekend with no clue about tropical weather. Unless these models change..they need to get into hotels or at least away from the beach

[cycloneye]

Evening mission is underway so who wants to post the data?

[NotSparta]

Could the GFS be stronger since it has full data about the new center?

[Dean4Storms]

Center has gone under a burst of deep convection and appears now to be moving slowly North, don't see any NNE movement now. Some wobbles yes but overall motion is North.

[Frank2]

CIMMS site view - as others said, dry air entrained into the system at present:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0









;

[stormhunter7]

Looking at the upper levels. alberto will soon be in or very close to highly divergent and conducive for intensification once it begins to move with the upper winds. should stay on a steady NOrth motion for the next 24hrs or so.

agree, but i think alberto has slowed to a crawl in last couple hours. Also looks a little elongated at coc, after spinnging up a tight coc today.

[robbielyn]

Looking at the upper levels. alberto will soon be in or very close to highly divergent and conducive for intensification once it begins to move with the upper winds. should stay on a steady NOrth motion for the next 24hrs or so.

do u think the storm will stop pulling in that dry air Aric? the storm doesn’t have a ts look to it with thinned out clouds. not very dense.

[robbielyn]

Looking at the upper levels. alberto will soon be in or very close to highly divergent and conducive for intensification once it begins to move with the upper winds. should stay on a steady NOrth motion for the next 24hrs or so.

agree, but i think alberto has slowed to a crawl in last couple hours. Also looks a little elongated at coc, after spinnging up a tight coc today.

it does look like that. do you think that’s due to the trough keeping it down there?

[daromaine]

Looking at the upper levels. alberto will soon be in or very close to highly divergent and conducive for intensification once it begins to move with the upper winds. should stay on a steady NOrth motion for the next 24hrs or so.

So anyone with any best guess of when this be past Destin? And any chance of it skirting Destin?? Thanks.

agree, but i think alberto has slowed to a crawl in last couple hours. Also looks a little elongated at coc, after spinnging up a tight coc today.

it does look like that. do you think that’s due to the trough keeping it down there?

[Nimbus]

When will mission #3 reach the center? All we really need is the vort message.

[stormhunter7]

Looks like HMON is going to be stronger. 18z running now

[rolltide]

Latest Satellite shows t-storms blowing up right over the COC.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like HMON is going to be stronger. 18z running now

It is going due north it looks like from my untrained eyes.

[stormhunter7]

the coc moved to the ene some in last two hours based on hi-res closeup. More east then north IMO

[GCANE]

Alberto is going to starting wrapping in some heavy-duty mid-layer moisture tomorrow morning.

[slamdaddy]

Hard to tell, but looks like center of circulation is about at 84W perhaps ?

[tolakram]

18Z GFS vorticity

[tolakram]

It's the westward LLC re-org that allows this to get under better conditions IMO. Will it happen?

[Aric Dunn]

Dry air is there. but is it begins to move north and progress further along the trough axis.. dry air will be less an issue. and also another large surge of deep tropical moisture is on its way.