ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

I suspect the models will be coming West today. The Euro may have sniffed out the stronger more horizontally tilted ridging.
Myrtle Beach may finally get its long awaited hit. This will leave Wilmington in the dirty side.. Going to be a lot of trees down due to already saturated soil. Power outages will be extensive. The storm surge into Cape Fear River would devastate downtown Wilmington.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah I do not see much deviation at all in forward direction. Flo is moving primarily due west at this time.

[plasticup]

NHC gives initial motion of 280 degrees, which is actually slightly north of due west. Due west being 270 degrees.

[plasticup]

Florence is at 115mph...its a major now

*again

[Mouton]

Storm has an interesting XTRAP trend moving from southerly over the past 6 hours. This flies in the face of the NW turn and to me indicates that Ridge is building west, not retreating to the North, North East or staying stationary. An earlier EURO had this storm doing a loop over NC and back over SE Ga which to me showed some belief by that run the ridge would become stronger or move west with the storm but staying out in front. While the most recent EURO shows a straight line path after land fall, what I am seeing does not equal what the models are all telling me.

This movement generally west continues another day and I will skeddalle from NE Florida to points west starting with Tallahassee regardless of the cone! :roll:

Why go due West? If I was in Jax, I would go SW to Gainesville. More to do there and easier to get back to Jax.

I'm staying right here until this witch is N of 30.

Plan to spend my B day in Appolachicola next weekend. Don't want to go to near Gainsville after this weekend's football debacale!

[Aric Dunn]

NHC gives initial motion of 280 degrees, which is actually slightly north of due west. Due west being 270 degrees.

6 hour average motion would be 280 that do to all the convective wobbling that happened overnight. the hurricane has stablized and resumed the west motion it appears ,... now we watch and see how long this lasts.

[edu2703]

INIT 10/0900Z 24.9N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 27.3N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 28.8N 69.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 34.5N 78.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

[TheAustinMan]

While NHC went with the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS ADT value of near 100 kt (115 mph) for the 15 UTC advisory, the SATCON consensus intensity estimate is up to 107kt (123 mph), carried largely by an impressive presentation on SSMIS microwave imagery that estimated the storm's intensity at 120 kt (145 mph).

230 KB. Source: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi (requires browser bypass)

[Michele B]

At least the last 3 hours Florence has been heading due west.

Explains why now ALL of SC is also inside the "cone." May come in further south than anticipated if it continues the westerly trek for too long.

[Michele B]

The 1 minute meso images show that as she nears 60W more of a N wobble or motion is occurring. Check it out here. Everything looks on track. The key with Florence landfalling either in SC or NC is going to be how quickly the ridging breaks down.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

The ridging never breaks down,that's why Florence moves wnw/nd into the SE US.

Forward speed now picked up to 13 mph, too.

[cjrciadt]

Recon guesses?
Mines 950mb 125kt, 140kt max FL

[SconnieCane]

Florence is quickly becoming a monster.

[northjaxpro]

Savannah was placed back just inside the cone of uncertainty by NHC for direct landfall on the very extrerme southern edge per 11 a.m. advisory for a subtle adjustment.

[supercane4867]

While NHC went with the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS ADT value of near 100 kt (115 mph) for the 15 UTC advisory, the SATCON consensus intensity estimate is up to 107kt (123 mph), carried largely by an impressive presentation on SSMIS microwave imagery that estimated the storm's intensity at 120 kt (145 mph).

230 KB. Source: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi (requires browser bypass)

That microwave presentation is very solid. It reminds me of Irma before hitting the Islands. This storm has very high potential.

[CronkPSU]

Per the 11am .. west at 13 mph

You called it earlier Aric, thanks for bringing your knowledge and observations to us here and the discord chat

[Javlin]

NHC gives initial motion of 280 degrees, which is actually slightly north of due west. Due west being 270 degrees.

6 hour average motion would be 280 that do to all the convective wobbling that happened overnight. the hurricane has stablized and resumed the west motion it appears ,... now we watch and see how long this lasts.

I was going to explain that myself Aric last offical motion was "Satellite fixes indicate that Florence has turned west-northwestward (285 degrees), and is moving at a slightly faster forward speed of 8 kt."

The NHC is slowly bending back W everything they do is gradual I think for composer before the public which is a good stance

[hurricaneCW]

That's a brutal forecast from the NHC for the Carolinas/VA. The most devastating impacts will likely be flooding and that will exceed hundreds of miles from the center.

[GCANE]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/Fyum6EyfOMA[/youtube]

[jdjaguar]

Savannah was placed back just inside the cone of uncertainty by NHC for direct landfall on the very extrerme southern edge per 11 a.m. advisory for a subtle adjustment.

I see Charleston on the southern edge of the cone, not Savannah per the 11:00 am update.

[Raebie]

INIT 10/0900Z 24.9N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 27.3N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 28.8N 69.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 34.5N 78.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

Now they have it as a hurricane after landfall.