ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[txwatcher91]

They need to start doing some synoptic gulfstream flights. that will help a lot.

I believe I read elsewhere that one is scheduled for Saturday and Sunday.

[floridasun78]

No picture (yet), but CMC landfalls in Savannah, GA next Saturday.

hope not i was that city last dec it nice city

[JPmia]

Could the presence and future path of 94L push Flo south of the forecast track more than expected? I am interested to see what the tonight's models show.

[Aric Dunn]

Could the presence and future path of 94L push Flo south of the forecast track more than expected? I am interested to see what the tonight's models show.

Essentially if you start to see 94L diving quickly sw .. thats bad.. if 94L moves wnw it could help erode the ridge enough to allow FLO to move more north or escape.

[Aric Dunn]

Could the presence and future path of 94L push Flo south of the forecast track more than expected? I am interested to see what the tonight's models show.

Essentially if you start to see 94L diving quickly sw .. thats bad.. if 94L moves wnw it could help erode the ridge enough to allow FLO to move more north or escape.

another possibility is that 94L's deep convection could pump the ridging between it and FLO. the Air is rising there and then sinking off to the SE of 94L that might push FLO more wsw.

maybe that is what the euro was indicating with all that wobbling at the beginning of the run.

[PandaCitrus]

Are the models accounting for 94L in the more westward lean the past 12 hours?

[bamajammer4eva]

@NWSTallahassee
2m2 minutes ago
More
Several @NWS Southern/Eastern Region offices will begin special upper air soundings at 18z (2pm ET) Sat. Our office will be a part of these soundings. These soundings (4 times a day) will be used to better sample the environment around #Florence, potentially improving model runs.

[floridasun78]

They need to start doing some synoptic gulfstream flights. that will help a lot.

I believe I read elsewhere that one is scheduled for Saturday and Sunday.

going out on 10 mon https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[typhoonty]

Hey! Does anyone have the UKMET ensembles? I'm trying to pull them up on a model viewer and it says no file found. TIA!

[Kingarabian]

Hey! Does anyone have the UKMET ensembles? I'm trying to pull them up on a model viewer and it says no file found. TIA!

12z UK-ENS:

[Bocadude85]

Another southwest shift with the 18Z model guidance

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

[chaser1]

Those in Florida/Georgia might want to keep an eye on tonight's' 0Z UK run. I'll be very curious whether the UK begins to further extend it's nearer term westward motion. This model earlier then any other has picked up and maintained a stronger W. Atlantic low to mid level ridging and the degree to which Florence (through her range of intensity) might react to those steering mechanisms in place.

You better believe I am anxiously awaiting tonight's 0Z UKMET run.

The 12z UK run I see plotted here is aiming for SC/NC, not Florida or Georgia.

That's very astute. The 12Z UK model run does have Florence aiming for SC/NC! I have a feeling that tonight's 0Z run will probably shift a tad to the north or a tad to the south. In fact, to lend even greater credibility and appreciate the accuracy of the UK model, it'll be interesting to watch the EURO and GPS continue to more tightly parallel each UK run for this storm.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1038159040935849984

[chaser1]

@NWSTallahassee
2m2 minutes ago
More
Several @NWS Southern/Eastern Region offices will begin special upper air soundings at 18z (2pm ET) Sat. Our office will be a part of these soundings. These soundings (4 times a day) will be used to better sample the environment around #Florence, potentially improving model runs.

Good stuff, didn't know that. The more data the better the modeling!

[AutoPenalti]

@NWSTallahassee
2m2 minutes ago
More
Several @NWS Southern/Eastern Region offices will begin special upper air soundings at 18z (2pm ET) Sat. Our office will be a part of these soundings. These soundings (4 times a day) will be used to better sample the environment around #Florence, potentially improving model runs.

Good stuff, didn't know that. The more data the better the modeling!

Finally, the news I've been waiting for.

[bamajammer4eva]

Another southwest shift with the 18Z model guidance

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Dang euro ensembles even threw a Louisiana track in there this time.

[AutoPenalti]

Another SW shift at 18Z from the ensembles.

[PTrackerLA]

Noticing the 12z UKMET Ensembles have 7 out of 35 members now recurving just offshore and another 2 scraping Cape Hatteras...the most thus far on any of it's runs. Just something to keep an eye on over the weekend.

[jlauderdal]

didnt see the faint lines

[p1nheadlarry]

Another SW shift at 18Z from the ensembles.

those are ensembles or spaghetti plot?

The light orange/pink are Euro ensembles.