ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

This seems like a pretty unlikely scenario at this point. Pretty much every positive factor would have to come together perfectly, and quickly.

Depending on how quickly it moves, it still has 18-24 hours over water which is more than enough for this to bomb out and hit 934mb. It's probably in the 950s right now already and hot towers are firing all around now.

Yeah, it's certainly possible.

Is it just me, or is there a distinct lack of recon for a major storm just a day or so away from the US coast? In the recon thread I don't even see any missions from today, last one I see was late last night. Really want to know what the pressure is and if we're going to see it start dropping like a rock or if it's more steady-ish.

REcon is on the way out there right now. Should be there in half an hour

[Hurricane Andrew]

This seems like a pretty unlikely scenario at this point. Pretty much every positive factor would have to come together perfectly, and quickly.

Depending on how quickly it moves, it still has 18-24 hours over water which is more than enough for this to bomb out and hit 934mb. It's probably in the 950s right now already and hot towers are firing all around now.

Yeah, it's certainly possible.

Is it just me, or is there a distinct lack of recon for a major storm just a day or so away from the US coast? In the recon thread I don't even see any missions from today, last one I see was late last night. Really want to know what the pressure is and if we're going to see it start dropping like a rock or if it's more steady-ish.

As soon as AF301 enters the storm, there is a plane scheduled to be in the storm for almost every hour until landfall. (The only gap is, IIRC, from 0300-0430z tonight).

[Ritzcraker]

This seems like a pretty unlikely scenario at this point. Pretty much every positive factor would have to come together perfectly, and quickly.

Depending on how quickly it moves, it still has 18-24 hours over water which is more than enough for this to bomb out and hit 934mb. It's probably in the 950s right now already and hot towers are firing all around now.

Yeah, it's certainly possible.

Is it just me, or is there a distinct lack of recon for a major storm just a day or so away from the US coast? In the recon thread I don't even see any missions from today, last one I see was late last night. Really want to know what the pressure is and if we're going to see it start dropping like a rock or if it's more steady-ish.

recon is En Route

[xironman]

If I didn’t know better it almost sounds like we have
large contingent of posters cheering on Michael to become a Cat.4 or worse hurricane. Sorry but I just don’t get that.

I’m hoping a sudden burst of shear weakens this right now but that’s almost no chance of happening, it’s pretty sickening to see such a nasty hurricane make landfall tomorrow evening

personally I still think there is a very decent chance that the storm does weaken significantly just prior to landfall just like almost all of them do in this area. However the “damage” will be done regarding the built up water it will push onshore in the form of surge. Wind could drop quite a bit however keeping this from being the horrific catastrophe we can all envision. We can hope.

Yeah many storms are slow moving coming on to shore and are infiltrated by continental air. But given the speed of the storm and huge western trough bringing air in from the gulf it does not seem to be much of an issue this time. What factors do you think will contribute to weakening.

[KWT]

Even a Cat 1 or cat 2 can cause significant damage. Please don’t let your guard down even if it does weaken

Yep, here in the UK we usually get 70-90mph gusts in storms with means around 50 and it can always surprise me how much damage can be done. Now those winds are gusts into the cat-1 range, I dread to think what higher gusts would do.

[craptacular]

Is it just me, or is there a distinct lack of recon for a major storm just a day or so away from the US coast? In the recon thread I don't even see any missions from today, last one I see was late last night. Really want to know what the pressure is and if we're going to see it start dropping like a rock or if it's more steady-ish.

It's just you. There is one low-level invest flight on its way in and another to take off soon. There will be two planes in there for much of the evening, and then another two taking off overnight / early morning.

[tolakram]

I haven't see any cheering, I think that observation is completely wrong. This is a hurricane forum, we like to watch hurricanes. If this bothers you then go somewhere else. If a post is cheering on a hurricane then report it because we don't allow it. If a post is complete hype with no evidence or reason to back it up then report it, we'll take care of it.

Blanket statements that 'some' are cheering doesn't cut it.

[MississippiWx]

One thing that has been consistently impressive is Michael's ability to blow up convection that is -80C to -90C. What's even more impressive is that it's doing it at 26-27N.

[bella_may]

Even a Cat 1 or cat 2 can cause significant damage. Please don’t let your guard down even if it does weaken

Yep, here in the UK we usually get 70-90mph gusts in storms with means around 50 and it can always surprise me how much damage can be done. Now those winds are gusts into the cat-1 range, I dread to think what higher gusts would do.

We get those in the south with summer storms as well. Difference is they usually don’t last more that 30 mins

[CrazyC83]

The many live oaks in the Big Bend area like Tallahassee can't even handle a strong tropical storm. During Hermine, where the highest gust there was 64 mph, many went down and 80% lost power.

[NDG]

Unlike what happened to Florence before landfall, there's no southerly windshear to disrupt Michael's steady strengthening. There's some dry air between h300 & h400 but is mostly circulating around it since there are no winds blowing into the circulation at that height.
This is from dropsonde # 8



Edit: Here's some of the more dryer air above H400 but there's no strong SW winds to induce it into Michael that quickly.

[MGC]

Michael still looks to be moving slightly west of north. It appears to continue to become better organized. Would not be surprised if the hurricane is upgraded to Cat-3 next advisory....MGC

[KWT]

The many live oaks in the Big Bend area like Tallahassee can't even handle a strong tropical storm. During Hermine, where the highest gust there was 64 mph, many went down and 80% lost power.

Back in 1987 almost at this time the south of England where I live had sustained 65kts and winds to 90kts. Millions of oaks were fell that night and the famous seven oaks...became one oak...

As you say these trees are sadly in for a terrible night.

[Agua]

The many live oaks in the Big Bend area like Tallahassee can't even handle a strong tropical storm. During Hermine, where the highest gust there was 64 mph, many went down and 80% lost power.

That's very surprising. Most of those things live hundreds of years and are, in fact, the most long lived trees along hurricane prone areas in the South. Is there something tha makes live oaks in the Big Bend area more susceptible to storm damage?

[ronjon]

The many live oaks in the Big Bend area like Tallahassee can't even handle a strong tropical storm. During Hermine, where the highest gust there was 64 mph, many went down and 80% lost power.

Yes this storm may be known as the great tree destroyer based on its path through the heavily forested SE US. TWC had a graphic this morning that showed highest tree density in the US where Michael will travel - I'd never seen a graphic like that.

[northjaxpro]

To the naked eye, watching a 2 hour visible loop it looks like a slight east of north component has occurred.

Anybody else see that? If so, Is that on schedule, ahead or behind schedule? Been away from computer so not caught up on that

According to the 11 a.m advisory and what the projected NHC track showed, the turn NNE was expected later tonight around 11p.m. to midnight.

So, if this turn happened or is in the process of occuring now, it would be at least 6 hours ahead of schedule of doing so.

This turn is critical obviously.and we will watch it and analyze it when it is confirmed of happening for sure!

[Hurricane Andrew]

One thing that has been consistently impressive is Michael's ability to blow up convection that is -80C to -90C. What's even more impressive is that it's doing it at 26-27N.

Was thinking about that yesterday...I remember Flo's "deep" convection rarely exceeded -75 or so. This one has just been throwing up hot towers like I throw around bad puns.

AF301 has descended to operational level.

[MississippiWx]

One thing that has been consistently impressive is Michael's ability to blow up convection that is -80C to -90C. What's even more impressive is that it's doing it at 26-27N.

Was thinking about that yesterday...I remember Flo's "deep" convection rarely exceeded -75 or so. This one has just been throwing up hot towers like I throw around bad puns.

AF301 has descended to operational level.

Recon appears to be arriving during another intensification phase.

[wxman57]

Anyone know if the oil rigs in the gulf will be impacted from the storm? Just curious if we will see a spike in gas prices like there were during Katrina and other gulf storms.

Not too much. Probably evacuating non-essentials from offshore SE LA, but that's it. I just brief them, they don't tell me what they are doing. I couldn't tell you if I did know their plans.

[EquusStorm]

One thing I'm impressed by is that this is not as east loaded as I figured it would be, it's fairly symmetrical now. And holy wow at the towers in the eastern eyewall