ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Recon flying at 700mb

[KWT]

One thing that has been consistently impressive is Michael's ability to blow up convection that is -80C to -90C. What's even more impressive is that it's doing it at 26-27N.

Yeah the convection is seemingly being helped by the shear, it's helping to flare up that convection, I think someone described it as assemetric intensification, basically strenthening through bursting convection.

It's almost been like clockwork, the ultimate convectively training!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Recon flying at 700mb

What are the implications?

[BYG Jacob]

Michael is pumping out ridiculous convection, and it ain't even D-Max yet. yikes.

[Sciencerocks]

This is Almost certainly going to become a cat4. That was my prediction a few days age. Rather i'll hit as a cat4 is another question all together as storms have a long history of weakening as they approach the gulf coast that were at there max 24-36 hours before landfall...Examples, Opal, Katrina, Ivan, Lili, Dennis, etc. The northern gulf trends to act a little like the east coast with its dry air and at over 30 north the shear produced by the front of a frontal system can get into the core so it wouldn't surprise me at all as it is directed northeastward towards the coast, but on the otherhand storms like Charley, wilma, alex(2004) and many other northern Atlantic systems have strengthened when they're picked up on the southeastern quad of the "front" so it could go either way.

Most models suggest the later is most likely taking this system into the 930's or 940's at landfall. So maybe they believe this storm will be able to keep the negative effects away from the core and continue to maintain its strength.

[meriland29]

I thought Michael was disorganizing an hour ago (?)

[Extratropical94]

All low-level missions into Michael so far:

[txwatcher91]

I thought Michael was disorganizing an hour ago (?)

No that was just some who didn't know what they were looking at. Michael has been steadily improving all day and is on track for cat 4 with an outside shot at a 5 before landfall imo.

[MGC]

This is Almost certainly going to become a cat4. That was my prediction a few days age. Rather i'll hit as a cat4 is another question all together as storms have a long history of weakening as they approach the gulf coast that were at there max 24-36 hours before landfall...Examples, Opal, Katrina, Ivan, Lili, Dennis, etc. The northern gulf trends to act a little like the east coast with its dry air and at over 30 north the shear produced by the front of a frontal system can get into the core so it wouldn't surprise me at all as it is directed northeastward towards the coast, but on the otherhand storms like Charley, wilma, alex(2004) and many other northern Atlantic systems have strengthened when they're picked up on the southeastern quad of the "front" so it could go either way.

Most models suggest the later is most likely taking this system into the 930's or 940's at landfall. So maybe they believe this storm will be able to keep the negative effects away from the core and continue to maintain its strength.

Not all hurricanes weaken as they approach the coast. Betsy, Camille, Fredrick to name a few. Will Michael weaken? Perhaps, I hope so, but we shall see. Last thing we need is an ERC and resulting wind field expansion. Surge is already going to be an issue, last thing is a larger wind field.....MGC

[Hurricane Andrew]

I just want to throw this somewhere for my own reference, as well as yours. This is the schedule for USAF C-130 and NOAA P-3 flights for the remainder of Mike's time over water. Mission number/plane designation, then takeoff time, then operational time.

Current Time: 2020z

(Missions taking off on 9/Oct, Zulu)
11/AF301 (active)
1915z
2000z-0030z

12/NOAA2
2000z
2100z-0330z

(Missions taking off on 10/Oct, Zulu)

13/AFXXX
0430z
0500z-1130z

14/NOAA2
0800z
0900z-1500z

15/AFXXX
1330z
1400z-2030z

16/AFXXX
2230z
2300z-0330z

Only recon gaps are 0330z-0500z on the 10th, and 2030z-2300z on the 10th.

[Hurrilurker]

I don't recall ever seeing so much indifference to a potentially-Cat-4 storm this close to the US coast. Obviously if you're in the target area it's different, but normally it would be 24/7 freak-out coverage at this point (and days before) and I've seen very little of that. Maybe Flo fatigue? I dunno, it's weird, everything seems relatively calm on a national level and I hope that doesn't mean preparations are gotten to too late for residents and disaster response.

[Kazmit]

Tropical Tidbits says this is 105kts now (120mph). Is that official?

[GCANE]

The hot towers are starting to spin around faster.

[tolakram]

I thought Michael was disorganizing an hour ago (?)

Why? Recon has been almost constant and pressure has been steadily dropping?

[GCANE]

Recon flying at 700mb

What are the implications?

Its a level were they monitor for signs of EWRC.
Primarily tracking dewpoint measurements in the eye.

[EquusStorm]

Looking at the all-day visible, stuff SEEMS to be wrapping in the eyewall much faster now than earlier, but that's just a quick unprofessional subjective observation

[Extratropical94]

Tropical Tidbits says this is 105kts now (120mph). Is that official?

That is the best track intensity as of 18Z. NHC will likely use this value for their next (official) advisory package (21Z).

[michelinj]

Tropical Tidbits says this is 105kts now (120mph). Is that official?

My guess would be that tropical tidbits provide their information from Best Track which has Michael at Cat3 at the moment like TT.

I think

[meriland29]

I thought Michael was disorganizing an hour ago (?)

Why? Recon has been almost constant and pressure has been steadily dropping?

Cause the eye is filling in...

[Raebie]

I thought Michael was disorganizing an hour ago (?)

Why? Recon has been almost constant and pressure has been steadily dropping?

Cause the eye is filling in...

Several people explained after that post that it was the storms obscuring the eye. It's not a sign of disorganization.