ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Exalt]

Would I need to or should I evacuate if I live in Williamsburg? If so by when? I would think the Hampton Roads area would begin evacuations sometime tomorrow, but I do not exactly know.

[meriland29]

Give that SW eyewall tends to be weaker. It's probably 120kt now.

Based on satellite and recon data, I actually think the intensity may be close to 125-130 knots now. The eye is rapidly warming and clearing.

Really? NHC just claimed her at 115 mph ..that would be a 30 mph jump

[supercane4867]

Personally I'd adjust the forecast peak upward to 140kt

[Bocadude85]

The 11am advisory was a fairly large southwest shift in the short term track, at 5am the NHC forecast Florence to be at 25.4N 60.5 W, now the 11am forecast has Florence at 25.5N 61.9W.

5:00 AM
INIT 10/0900Z 24.9N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 27.3N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 28.8N 69.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 34.5N 78.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

11:00 AM
INIT 10/1500Z 25.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 25.5N 61.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 29.5N 71.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 33.0N 76.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

[plasticup]

958.0 mb extrapolated surface pressure. That's a good bit stronger than NHC expected, and I'm not sure we are in the eye yet. 113 knots SFMR with that pressure.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If she doesnt slow her row, she is going to go through quite a few EWRCs

Models show Florence expanding significantly in size, so that would make sense.

[cheezyWXguy]

Give that SW eyewall tends to be weaker. It's probably 120kt now.

Based on satellite and recon data, I actually think the intensity may be close to 125-130 knots now. The eye is rapidly warming and clearing.

Really? NHC just claimed her at 115 mph ..that would be a 30 mph jump

115mph was just an estimate by the NHC since the plane wasn't out yet to confirm actual intensity.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Give that SW eyewall tends to be weaker. It's probably 120kt now.

Based on satellite and recon data, I actually think the intensity may be close to 125-130 knots now. The eye is rapidly warming and clearing.

Really? NHC just claimed her at 115 mph ..that would be a 30 mph jump

That's why getting recon is so important. 115 was based on satellite presentation.

[PavelGaborik10]

So much for the "slow and steady intensification" some serious RI going on right now, unreal.

[Extratropical94]

945 mbars, 130kt FL in NE eyewall

[Exalt]

Would I need to or should I evacuate if I live in Williamsburg? If so by when? I would think the Hampton Roads area would begin evacuations sometime tomorrow, but I do not exactly know.

For further context I live in a dorm so I'm not currently with family.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So much for the "slow and steady intensification" some serious RI going on right now, unreal.

NHC did say Florence was rapidly intensifying, but wow, I didn't think Florence would get this strong this quickly.

[plasticup]

945 mbars, 130kt FL in NE eyewall

Cat 4, baby

[meriland29]

Would I need to or should I evacuate if I live in Williamsburg? If so by when? I would think the Hampton Roads area would begin evacuations sometime tomorrow, but I do not exactly know.

The sooner the better. The coverage will pick up soon and people will really start hauling. You don't want to get stuck in that mass of traffic. I would leave today.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

945mb, FL winds 131 knots, SFMR 114 knots. Florence appears to be a Category 4 hurricane again.

[Cypresso]

What are your thoughts on what Mike has just posted on his weather page?

"11am NHC track. Cone getting smaller. Landfall seems very likely as a destructive Hurricane with historic surge and damaging winds. Expected to hit at least 150mph on approach. A very wide growing system will produce effects well past center (my guess 400+ miles wide with hurricane winds 50+ miles from center). Heaviest surge to the NE side of the storm. (forward speed and moon/tides are going to add to totals). Stalling possible over the weekend with serious flooding setting up for someone. THIS IS AS BAD AS IT GETS!"

[dspguy]

Savannah was placed back just inside the cone of uncertainty by NHC for direct landfall on the very extrerme southern edge per 11 a.m. advisory for a subtle adjustment.

No surprise as the system makes westward progress

Savannah currently is just south of the extreme southern edge of the cone right now.

I know a lot of people jumped on you about it (me included!). Bunch of geography scholars here!

For me though, I was sipping my coffee and going to check the NHC forecast update at 11am and saw your post first. I nearly spit my coffee out on my keyboard. Savannah was my evac point if the storm tracks where it is currently going. I was like "well, there goes THAT backup plan!" I was thinking "No way it tracked that far south already!"

[NDG]

Recon finds Florence stronger.

NOAA2 WC06A FLORENCE HDOB 14 20180910
153400 2456N 06013W 7344 02279 9526 +168 //// 338064 071 114 016 05
153430 2457N 06011W 7232 02392 9491 +175 +146 343038 044 050 005 00
153500 2458N 06009W 7232 02373 9455 +194 +133 356019 026 038 004 00
153530 2459N 06007W 7195 02415 9450 +197 +124 100012 017 030 004 00
153600 2500N 06006W 7191 02423 9454 +199 +088 125027 032 034 003 00
153630 2501N 06004W 7204 02419 9469 +194 +088 129039 043 041 005 00
153700 2503N 06002W 7197 02442 9488 +188 +104 136052 058 057 004 00
153730 2504N 06000W 7233 02423 9529 +170 +131 143078 088 098 006 00
153800 2505N 05958W 7285 02409 9599 +148 //// 147118 130 117 037 05
153830 2506N 05957W 7361 02389 9687 +137 +137 146126 131 114 035 00
153900 2507N 05955W 7370 02432 9750 +133 //// 147120 123 097 024 01
153930 2508N 05954W 7446 02388 9802 +130 //// 146110 111 093 011 01
154000 2509N 05952W 7432 02439 9837 +131 //// 145105 106 083 011 01
154030 2510N 05950W 7482 02400 9867 +136 +135 145098 099 080 010 00

[FLpanhandle91]

114kt unflagged SFMR. Pressure 945mb

[KWT]

Based on satellite and recon data, I actually think the intensity may be close to 125-130 knots now. The eye is rapidly warming and clearing.

Really? NHC just claimed her at 115 mph ..that would be a 30 mph jump

115mph was just an estimate by the NHC since the plane wasn't out yet to confirm actual intensity.

Given the SW quad supported that, I'd be stunned if the other quadrants don't support high than 100kts. I doubt its as high as 125kts, but wouldn't be that surprised with 115kts (SMFR is judged as too high by the NHC at the moment without support from FL).