ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[tolakram]

Out to sea?

Should be Outer Banks and inland again based on the 500mb pressure lines.

[Blown Away]

Out to sea?

No way, NC/SC line I predict.

[Aric Dunn]

a little faster. does not allow the ridge to build is as much.

[supercane4867]

GFS into NC it seems

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[SFLcane]

So about the same...

[tolakram]

[AutoPenalti]

18Z about roughly the same.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

It's actually a little slower than the 12Z run.

[tolakram]

[TheDreamTraveler]

12z and 18z GFS pretty much identical. Also take into account the Euro is constantly showing a landfall in the carolinas. I would say that area of the east coast is under the most threat but we still can't rule out Florida or the rest of the east coast yet. It could still turn more westerly or try and go up the coast. But the trough for it to go up the coast looks a lot less likely now.

Also the landfall is a tiny bit north of the 12z GFS.

[lando]

I remember Irma was EC, then EC of fl, then at the last minute rode up the west coast. Much of Miami had evacuated as the GFS and other models were consistent on a direct strike which ended up not happening

[tolakram]

18Z GFS

[Hurricane Andrew]

I remember Irma was EC, then EC of fl, then at the last minute rode up the west coast. Much of Miami had evacuated as the GFS and other models were consistent on a direct strike which ended up not happening

As bad as Irma was, she could have been far worse. Which is scary, considering how bad she was.

[Bocadude85]

So the 18Z GFS is south of the 12Z through the first 120 hours or so.. and then similar or slightly to the right of the 12z thereafter

[TheDreamTraveler]

So 18z GFS started out south of 12z but ended up landfalling slightly north of it if I'm seeing things correctly.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Looks like Florence stalls and moves very slowly up around the mid atlantic up to hour 192...If true that would give areas pounded by record rains all year even more rain :\

[weathaguyry]

The GFS run would lead to devastating surge in the Mid-Atlantic with persistent east winds